Member Info for Blue83

wiseys - it would be in better shape had it not offloaded all the most profitable businesses that PE outfits would be interested in selling. Have a look at the P&L, the revenue generates less profit now with a very similar overhead burden so it is debatable whether the sum of the parts is better in terms of current EPS though of course the debts has had to be settled.

Yup, the challenge was to transform while there was an opportunity & they developed a LFT that had no market instead.

The BoD still have the chance to invest in the opportunities on offer here at this price only they know that they are in charge & how clueless they have been so far. Couldn't sell a PCR in a US surge without any cash constraint - Marks for imagination, energy & self respect = 0.

100/182 would be 54% dilution

DRB83 - the indirect costs that I've called running at 30m pa are based on H1 £15.875m. They cover administration expenses (office, premises, staff and the R&D staff and other costs) so they are less naturally variable than revenue. There would be a one off cost to make saving often (like with staff) or it takes time to make savings by renegotiating contracts, moving premises, changing the ways things are done. They have been recruiting, one might think any recruiting will be worthwhile, however it does seem they make decisions without having to make business cases for them or have accountability at the level of profit centre managers. It strikes me that making £50 revenue requires the burden of indirect costs to "right-size" itself down from the current run rate if it was 15.875m in a half year or there won't be much left in 2022 of 70% on 50m revenue if they make that.

H1 showed
Revenue 53.950 millions
Direct cost 15.906
Exceptional 35,770
Gross profit 2.274 after exceptional underlying margin 71%
Indirect costs 15.875 R&D, administration and any other indirect costs
EBITDA (13.601) (after the exceptional hit)

Harchris - " .. it has kept going lower than we ever thought likely," - based on a BB where discussion of issues received hostile treatment.

If anyone discussed the reason for mention of warranty provision or any other implication of the DHSC contract other than how easily & amicably it was going to be resolved they were told to trot off as traders looking for a lower entry price etc

The SPA valuation in Oct 2020 had a 2022 free cash flow generated from business off 25m from memory & that core was used to project forward the value from 2025. The guide price of 1433p had c900p just from the business prospect into perpetuity. In effect this was always an investment mainly about how well the opportunity Covid super profit would be used. The covid opportunity extended loner than then envisaged particularly in the USA. The vacuum of information and lack of discussion has obscured the objective into being the GM/DHSC show.

We have a guide of £50m revenue 2022 at say 70% gross margin = 35 less a cost base running at £30m = £5m profit less risk - a fifth of the £25 in SPA guide of Oct 2020.

NCYT has developed a replacement for its major client this year, whilst most of it had leadership in transition. As DA has implied, at last, it was also in the context of NCYT being run uncommercially. Lets hope they get to grips with it at last.

They have also mentioned a product warranty provision - don't have the value - which would tie in with the point made by KiltedScotsman & their worst care description concerning "replacing products". The machines were such a small part of the price that I thought (possibly incorrectly) that it was more about tests as somehow DHSC are acting like they expect PROmate to swap out exsig when the contract only ever mentions exisg.

poidster mentioned something along that line as the understanding on the ground.

The contract has sections on calibration, testing and handover of instruments + instruction for use so I expects that would be signed off. It seems more sensible however that it is both instrument accuracy & particularly their performance when used by NHS staff in the heat of the battle on top of their existing workload & how it all related to tests. Perhaps results dropped and PROmate was put forward as an alternative but machine accuracy is blamed.

Better go..

Phase 1 is about safety, isn't it?

So it is great that no adverse outcome was encountered and there is no reason NOT to progress to Phase II Part B

They only tested 18 patients against 16 placebo so results could be skewed easily. On the other hand, each aspect of the test seems to have a pattern of advantage over placebo, & while numbers are small, I am delighted that at the size of difference as JCEP said. It is about time to have a reason to be cheerful. GLA

Pork - I think it is all about volume of interest in the SP. SO would be done tomorrow if a big enough buyer was that much in but it'll take as long as you same if demand stays as it is. Lets hope results change the landscape. KR

Skeletor - the mcap, market valuation of capital, is based on discounted value of future cash flows plus expectation for growth and adjusted for risk. share price is mcap divided by number of shares in issue

A dividend now would reduce the mcap (as the that much won't be available to shareholders) so 170p less 135p = 35p or mcap of 24m for the expected value of future cash from business plus growth less risk.

If YE22 revenue is £50m at 70% gross profit or £35m costs of admin & R&D have to come out of that to show what will be generated. The admin & R&D cost base (not directly related to each sale) in H1 of 2021 was £15.875m. We do not know the H2 figure - we can guess another £15m or £30m for the year.

Rampers report new jobs as though they should inspire confidence but a net profit of only £5m will be left before risk.

An mcap of £24m is quite generous unless the company is run on a more sensible commercial basis.

So for example they had product to spare this year but were unable to raise sales in the USA in an extraordinary surge of demand and plenty of money in the bank & they have 8 tests held up by the CTDA that only impacted revenue £3m in Q4.

It would require competences that the management have not had to manage R&D and sales on a commercial basis & with energy. DA is putting forward his proposal for how to achieve it. Supporting him, when he & none of the Board won't risk their own money, suggests uncertainty over it all which is why the price is so low.

There is no chance of a distribution, as Kamikirad suggests, it would be even madder than the existing pattern of incompetence.

They should exhaust the dispute resolution process made public in the DHSC process and assert their rights with maximum urgency, regardless of negotiations or Good Law Project implications, not doing so has betrayed shareholders, undermined credibility, stymied the Board and demonstrating incompetence in not noticing what ought to come next. No wonder they don't invest.

This doesn't seem to say they agree not to take action in the courts either:

40.13 Subject to Clause 21 (Dispute Resolution) of this Schedule 2, the Parties irrevocably agree that the courts of
England and Wales shall have non-exclusive jurisdiction to settle any Dispute or claim that arises out of or in
connection with this Contract or its subject matter.

Agree Urraca, it seems (to me at least) that the whole test validation process was politicised & hijacked in favour of Chinese producers. I wish PE would investigate the reasons for buying their products, not just in price & surety of supply but was there any threat from the CCP of penalties on other matters of trade (like the CCP attitude to Chinese nationals studying in the UK)?

cont.. Clause 21.5 to 21.7 end of dispute resolution section

21.5 The mediation shall commence within twenty eight (28) days of the confirmation of the mediator in accordance
with Clause 21.4 of this Schedule 2 or at such other time as may be agreed by the Parties in writing. Neither
Party will terminate such mediation process until each Party has made its opening presentation and the mediator
has met each Party separately for at least one hour or one Party has failed to participate in the mediation
process. After this time, either Party may terminate the mediation process by notification to the other Party (such
notification may be verbal provided that it is followed up by written confirmation). The Authority and the Supplier
will cooperate with any person appointed as mediator providing them with such information and other assistance
as they shall require and will pay their costs, as they shall determine, or in the absence of such determination
such costs will be shared equally.

21.6 Nothing in this Contract shall prevent:
21.6.1 the Authority taking action in any court in relation to any death or personal injury arising or allegedly
arising in connection with supply of the Goods or Services; or 51

21.6.2 either Party seeking from any court any interim or provisional relief that may be necessary to protect the
rights or property of that Party or that relates to the safety of patients or the security of Confidential
Information, pending resolution of the relevant Dispute in accordance with the Dispute Resolution
Procedure.

21.7 Clause 21 of this Schedule 2 shall survive the expiry of or earlier termination of this Contract for any reason.

FYI

This an extract from the DHSC contract dated 28 Sept 20 (available through Bidstack) on dispute resolution - see Clause 21 (Dispute Resolution) of Schedule 2

21.1 - 21.5 copied below Clause 21.5 - 21.7 to follow.

When I read it, I thought it was actionable if arbitration failed, perhaps there is agreement somewhere else that prevents legal action. I haven't found it yet. Where would it be or is it naive to look? it doesn't seem like they have even called in the arbitrators!

21. Dispute resolution
21.1 During any Dispute, including a Dispute as to the validity of this Contract, it is agreed that the Supplier shall
continue its performance of the provisions of the Contract (unless the Authority requests in writing that the
Supplier does not do so).

21.2 In the case of a Dispute arising out of or in connection with this Contract the Supplier and the Authority shall
make every reasonable effort to communicate and cooperate with each other with a view to resolving the Dispute
and follow the procedure set out in Clause 21.3 of this Schedule 2 as the first stage in the Dispute Resolution
Procedure.

21.3 If any Dispute arises out of the Contract either Party may serve a notice on the other Party to commence formal
resolution of the Dispute. The Parties shall first seek to resolve the Dispute by escalation in accordance with the
management levels (if applicable) as set out in the Order Form. Respective representatives at each level, as set
out in the Order Form shall have five (5) Business Days at each level during which they will use their reasonable
endeavours to resolve the Dispute before escalating the matter to the next level until all levels have been
exhausted. Level 1 will commence on the date of service of the Dispute Notice. The final level of the escalation
process shall be deemed exhausted on the expiry of five (5) Business Days following escalation to that level
unless otherwise agreed by the Parties in writing.

21.4 If the procedure set out in Clause 21.3 of this Schedule 2 above has been exhausted and fails to resolve such
Dispute, as part of the Dispute Resolution Procedure, the Parties will attempt to settle it by mediation. The
Parties shall, acting reasonably, attempt to agree upon a mediator. In the event that the Parties fail to agree a
mediator within five (5) Business Days following the exhaustion of all levels of the escalation procedure at Clause
21.3 of this Schedule 2, the mediator shall be nominated and confirmed by the Centre for Effective Dispute
Resolution, London.

this board has fought off attempts to discuss things openly at a time the company was economical with information

people are talking about it now because the RNS showed more than was obvious before.

The magnitude of clarification was underlined for me when even Karen had grace enough to admit that GM had not added value over the past year. Wow.

After the RNS it is a little clearer where the resilient value will come from. I doubt we will be able to discuss challenges though. people will soon start to fear discussion reduces price, or is just put forward for nefarious reasons, as you echo. you can say I am a troll now, I have been told to get lost for being a trader before. It would have been better if I had perhaps but I didn't as there is a long term sustainable business that needed some change to "be market led" as DA has now put it

anyway good luck, shame not to get better value from this forum

I have been wondering that too - see below my guess of what DA added to his portfolio

A) sfrom //www.amazon.co.uk/iClosam-Cardigan-Knitted-Sweater-Collar/ iClosam Mens Cardigan Thick Knitted Sweater Full Zip Stand Collar Warm Jumper Winter Coat Dark Gray
* Stylish design, highest wearing comfort, and the ease of maintenance are going to make this cardigan your favorite piece of clothing.
* Occasion: Perfect for different shirts or Tops and match with different trousers. It can be suitable for different occasions like photo for the website, interview, the lab ,sunday lunch,dating,party,hip hop,urban style,Halloween Costume or any (or all!) daily casual occasions.
*9 colours,
* 4 stars from 853 reviews
* £32.99
* 2% discount or 5% for 2 (as we know marketing is in his DNA)

or perhaps

B) MOCOTONO Men's Jumper Turtle Neck Zip Sweater Long Sleeve Comfortable Cotton Knit Sweatshirt : Amazon.co.uk: Clothing
*nice dark colours again, active outdoorsman vibe but made out of cotton so not so good when the lab gets a bit nippy
* Suitable for : All Weather / Warm / Vintage / Ribbed Hem, Men / Boys / Juniors / Kids / High School or College Students / All the Youth or Adults
* Good for : Daily Wear / Sports / Outdoor / Party / Business Meeting / Interview / Work / Journey / Hiking
* 4.5 stars from 957 reviews,
* £43.99 so expensive

He missed a trick not going for this one though:

C) Amazon Essentials Men's Cotton Full-Zip Sweater : Amazon.co.uk: Clothing
* full length zip in the style of Partridge or Henning Wehn
*4.5 stars on 3,194 reviews
* £21 after 7% discount

It would have been news had they not hit their forecast made a couple of months ago.

I like this

We will also endeavour to streamline our R&D programme to ensure we are keenly focused on commercially attractive opportunities and bringing the right solutions, to the right customers at the right time. We will also re-evaluate how we leverage our products in each of our target global markets as we continue on our path of international expansion

it will shift from being a "development led" to a "market led" business, changing how success is measured at the Company from the number of products developed to building a greater understanding of its customers' needs and developing solutions to best meet them. As a consequence, plans have been put in place to conduct more comprehensive upfront market opportunity assessments prior to determining how best to invest to deliver value.

& more information given on product splits but shame there wasn't more detail on how markets are to "leveraged" & comments on DHSC are lame - why can't the business assert its contractual rights if they believe they exist a year on?

If revenue YE22 is £50m at 70% margin the current cost base would result in a loss so another lingering question.

Sorry for this, but I've just been reading that China have been upping their intrusions into Taiwan airspace so it could be a wider still.

agree, even a worm has a concentration of some sensory cells at one end of it (known as cephalisation), what is this lot doing? they don't back what they tell us, they try not to tell us much & what they have told us has been driven by their personal self interest. It can't be much cop working there. as there hasn't much sign of cephalisation in it, it would be better to chop it up & have its workforce working for some purpose other that personal interest of the BoD

All the shares that I follow have a similar SP profile today, non cash generating businesses are down 10-20%, small real businesses are down 10% and standard chartered bank is down 2% but it is all in the same profile. The market is scaling back risk of war in Ukraine, I also read that Taiwan reports 39 Chinese jets intruded their air space yesterday so there is specific uncertainty and an orchestrated risk to compounding it while Biden decides what to do & what it may cost the smartest man he knows, son Hunter in lost sales of Art et al.

Thanks for the link, worth reading