Member Info for Blue83

it is in our best interest for sure

It is 6p call on 180m shares would clear $14m OF

The overiding emotion in the Q&A seems to have been gloom, disappointment, loss. What might cause that? Seeing a car crash coming in the form of covenant breach - that would seem to evoke an emotion of tragedy & catastrophic loss. Perhaps despondency is more associated with the prospect of not fully cashing in on value in the form of a relative give away to Merck or other. Fingers crossed, gl

Did they give an indication what their cash position was?

FWIW my guess is that OF have triggered a warning of breach of the covenant to hold $7.5m and they were glum because they were under threat of it at the presentation. "if by Friday, ..."

OTOH the cut off date for a covenant would be measured 30 June so the Friday before might be scramble to activate Plan B day. They might well be glum knowing they would have to initiate involvement of Merck at a greater stake.

It all depends on how good the development is & you might well be peeved if it was strong enough to hold a 10% stake & have to dilute its value to stave off the initiation of a covenant breach.

If we were Merck, who would we prefer to buy into development with? DDDD direct or from OF in a sell off?

I started off writing this in the camp of doom but come out of it with a reason for hope.

Do not rely on any of this whatever you do, GLA

* Did they suspect that the performance of SNG001 would be undermined by treatments currently offerred in Standard of Care?

*Do they understand the causal mechanism for the ineffectiveness of their treatment, & if so, why did they go ahead with Sprinter?

* Are there situations or conditions where the current treatments offerred as standard of Care for Covid is inappropriate?

* What is the most promising use for their treatment? COPD?

It is worse than dead wood, it is missed opportunity, poor guidance, lack of heathy opposition to & the resulting support for a CEO.

My theory, which you will see is very speculative, is that Poly see selling the company off as their best current alternative.

RNS 4th Feb showed they owned 18% or 36.4m shares estimated at 126p cost on a BB = £46m (I had 137p = £50m)
RNS 21 Feb had 4.5% added or 9m shares. lets guess at 20p = £1.8
RNS 22 Feb +0.8%, 2 Mar +1.0%, 7 Mar +1.0%, 5 Apr + 0.7%, 14 Jun + 1.0% = 4.5% or 9m at say 25p = £2.25m

So 27% or their 54.4m shares has cost £53.8m or an average now of 100p
& let’s guess they get the next 3% or 6m shares at 25p or £1.5m to have 29.9% at cost £55.3m or an average now of 92p

What would Poly have as a target price for selling 100%?

Let’s guess Poly think with a successful Sprinter but before commericalisation was demonstrated SNG would have been worth as a proposition to a pharma/partner £1bn or 500p p share - of course it might have achieved more but might it be fair to think they may see the existing opportunity now salable for up to half that i.e. £500m or 250p p share target price & £250m or 125p p share minimum price (which they only could do at 100% gain on investment because of their risk).

29.9% cost £55m, they will try to buy our 140m shares or 70% out for anything under 50p* (so 140m shares cost £70m) = 100% will have cost Poly £125m or 62.5p average to make 100% gain on their investment if the minimum sale price was achieved.

* hope this is wrong & we have a good fight but it shows how hard they have to restrict buying price now.

what is the cost of using Parsortix? roughly
thnks

Favourites from the RNS:

By making the Parsortix system widely available, we intend to support the entire industry in its adoption of liquid biopsy solutions

The FDA has granted a De Novo Class II classification for the Parsortix system for use in harvesting cancer cells from metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patient blood for subsequent analysis. This means that an entirely new medical device classification has been granted by FDA for the Parsortix system. De Novo clearance is rare and this is the first such medical device classification for a new instrument in oncology for many years.

the De Novo classification represents the uniqueness of the Parsortix system as there is no comparable predicate device

ANGLE anticipates that the Parsortix system will be adopted worldwide. Market research estimates the market opportunity for liquid biopsy in the United States alone could grow to more than US$100 billion per annum.

ANGLE's clearance is the first and only FDA product clearance

Globally, breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer with 2.3 million new cases per year. In the United States, there are an estimated 3.7 million women living with or after breast cancer and a further 290,000 cases are predicted in 2022. Globally the incidence of breast cancer is growing with cases expected to increase by 80% between 2020 and 2040

ANGLE estimates that the addressable market for the Parsortix system used with metastatic breast cancer patients is in excess of US$500m per annum in the United States alone.

I wonder what this opportunity might be worth, what sort of theoretical ball park would it be in?

Lets guess, R is revenue, E is EBITDA , N is NPV of FCF at 5% WACC. all in $ms
YE23: R 5 E (20) N (19)
YE24: R 20 E - N -
YE25: R 50 E 30 N 26
YE26: R 100 E 70 N 57
YE27: R 200 E150 N 117
Sum YE28-YE39: R E 2,593 N 1,455
TV YE40 : R 400 E 300 N 125 in perpetuity
Then Revenue grows at 5.5% pa so it doubles in 13 years to YE40 to R 400 & E 300.

So sum of NPV stream N to YE39 is 1,636m + value of Earning stream in perpetuity 2,500m
Value of business circa $4.1b or $17 per share
Halve that for risk? $8 per share or 640p & in this market?
more than 160p

Be warned DYOR
I valued NCYT at 1500-2000p (currently 150p), RENX at 1500-1800p (currently 140p), SNG at 500p (currently 25p)

: )

Happy day

GLA

The provision is against the impact of the dispute - uncollected debt, stock written off, termination costs & prof fees.

YE Dec 20 provision is against unpaid debt and an assessment of irrecoverable costs at that date.

Things moved on by YE Dec 21 with more debt added as unpaid (Q1 PROmate c40m) and a reassessment of costs of the dispute upwards as the consequences of the dispute took greater shape in terms of stock & supplier contract terminations & perhaps legal costs.

The 800k is the cost of fees actually INCURRED by YE 21 - that means costs invoiced or accrued for work done up to YE. It is a good figure to show the seriousness of effort to date. The provision for legal costs of the dispute will cover what future costs may arise based on prudent estimation & a some spare.

My hypothesis is the q16s were added to the counter claim because the DHSC seem to feel they have right to the latest products. The dispute started the day PROmate was launched, so inspite of having contracted to buy ex sig & having had it delivered, the instant of launch triggered an entitlement to it. Does not make sense based on contract available to us but fits timing & the "swapping out ex sig for PROmate" idea. Perhaps, inspite of contact available to us, the instant q32s were available the DHSC felt the q16s were due replacement not that it makes sense.

As usual, it is hard to believe how tempid they are about M&A, they dont want to rush it or the "arbitration" process with dispute!

(What?, the DHSC has filed a counter claim & this lot have not lost patience over a business breaking block 17 months after it started. The **** has been taken, the other lot have made a claim but lets not get excited & rock the boat.

There is better clarity on plan, its hardly excitilng, 100m revenue in 5 years less risk of not getting there with this pair steering. So SP drop, as SP = cash + a little less for EV.

Feel like getting a dark grey camping cardigan to have a sleep in to the sound of a monotous voice on about boots on the ground, absolutely.

It is "in his DNA" for it to be dull, evasive and inconclusive.

The legality of the dividend would be an interesting audit question.

The company believes they have a strong case so contingency is remote. What is the support for this?

Vs claim by DHSC tha looks wild or spurious. Is a contingent liability to it possible? You would have to read the claim & advice on it. If it was just possible, that requires only a dislcosure not accrual but it does make distribution imprudent, I think, doesnt it?

FFS, just when, we need some better luck or Putin to die.

John - they have paid it but somehow they are going back to try unwind the contract.

There was a process with strict timescales for deliver, checking goods received & payment runs. There must be something by which they want to claim what they got was not what was contracted for. Contract wording available to us refers to Exsig, Exsig was delivered, payments ran as expected until the day (16 Nov) when PROmate was launched, payments stopped until one final payment was made on 24 Feb after PROmate had been delivered (for which payment was not made). Poidster suggested people in the DHSC thought PROmate swapped out Ex Sig. Could it be that the contract document signed had some side caveat or misunderstanding that NCYT would supply Ex sig up until the relaease of later products? It does not make sense.

NCYT should have gone to court to force the issue rather hoping for resolution through negotiation. Not doing so is presumably why NCYT has not used any of its cash & why the solicitor left the company back in October.

Hamster - its no coincidence it would bring the bank balance & SP to near zero which is presumably why GM left.

That is a good point.

It is worth reflecting that we do not have a target decision date as before that drew a rise in the SP. You would think that the FDA would kick this into the long grass but selling risks being out if Sods Law applies and they are efficient this time.

Does anyone have background on why Abramovich was chosen by Zelenskyy to help mediate?

I noticed that he travelled to Isreal from the UK on his Israeli passport at a time Putin was publically asking oligarchs to show they were loyal to Russia by returning rather than remaining in their overseas homes.

What interests does RA have in the Donbass & was he involved in mediating after the annexation in 2014?

I presume Abramovich is Jewish, is that right? Is that the background to his Israeli citizenship? Does his family have historic connections with the Ukraine & suffering in the horrors previous generations of the Zelenskyys experienced in WW2? I wonder why Zelenskyy trusts RA particularly

halleulia

DA investing personally suggets he believes the story as he has told it to the market. It boosts PIs who were left stranded believing potential of a business that the BoD had betrayed in choices not to expand with ambition into the US market and instead to develop unsaleable products before leaving for more exciting prospects such as at businesses wil Love Hemp.

The alignment of interests of directors and PIs is well over a year overdue.

It seems to me that the FDA are not going to approve any of the applications I am waiting for and they will delay POLX by any means available.