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You don’t have to own the share to be invested in it. It’s perfectly legitimate to be short as well as long, or to bet on the share price going down as well as up.

I think you need to step back a bit and think about the likely stages in the company’s development. I think there’s too much imaginary around Rukwa at this point. First revenues from Rukwa might come perhaps 12 months after they get a ML (so let’s say end of 2025). First revenues from Colorado should start in the first half of 2025. We don’t know yet whether the company will then pursue a strategy of further acquisitions in the US, TZ or globally. We’re not sure if they’ve now flipped from an exploration strategy to a producer projects focus. Will they use revenues to reinvest into accelerated production on existing projects or into exploring new ones? We can guess that first Colorado earnings might support some of their working capital costs in H22025 (but it will be tight). We need to consider the time and costs risks in drilling the first 5 wells, and then another 9. If the first one goes well that will be a boost but we can guess the SP will be traded up and down around spud and completion dates. BlueStar are also listing on AIM (god help them). We have to consider what happens to their SP and their capacity to raise capital if needed (it’s a shared liability for any additional well costs).

I hope the SP gets a boost from approval of drill permits in mid October and then from first sound date, and from the Rukwa ML approval by the end of the year. I don’t expect it to really rerate before there is fairly solid evidence of revenue to support operating costs and allay the traders’ fears of dilution. I think the current broker target is not an unreasonable hope before H2 2025. If we’re looking to 2026 then I think it’s more about hopes and dreams at this point.

The intention is good and there are some sensible points of sequence but there are some gaps in either logic or information.

“A typical valuation would be based on the market cap”

I have no idea what this means beyond a tautology?

Can you explain how you get from your assumed $75m profit per year to a share price of 72p?

Not only wrong but bizarre. There is no point cutting and pasting reams of commentary day after day without fact checking. Probably ChatGPT again as that seems to have replaced any kind of critical thinking on these boards.

Remember to distinguish between NAV and mCap, they are not the same thing at all. We’ll have to wait for the company’s modelling of recoverable resources, but you can’t just translate a lifetime gas volume and current commodity price into a share price. You need to know what volume can be extracted per year at what capex and opex, debt etc, then take a view on what level of forward pricing the market might support. It’s tempting but completely fanciful at this point. We need to be much more realistic about interim goals. The current broker target seems more sensible.

That’s right, the previous modelling included $38m for the plant and $54m for drilling the 6 wells and constructing the gathering infrastructure, so $50m plant budget sounds right.

The company has clearly advised the market in an RNS that the feasibility study does demonstrate positive economics for the company at that scale. I don’t think you’re in a position to refute that without inside information.The question is whether it’s commercial for HE1 to develop a project of that scale or to sell an interest to a company that can (as BluStar have just done with HE1 on a smaller scale).

Https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/230830_Helium-One_Marketing-Roadshow_Sept23_FINAL_.pdf

The most recent published plant concept is outlined on Slide 25 below, but it’s a year ago and they’ve commissioned design studies since then, and they have their own rig, so the assumptions will have changed. That original plan was for drilling 6 wells and gathering pipelines, to feed a modular plant at total budget of about $84m capex plus $1m per year opex

Click in the community tab

Also these

https://www.helium-one.com/news-and-media/gallery/

The proposed venture needs to work with the local District Council as well as the Ministry of Mining. The ESIA has to be approved by another body, and probably involving another Ministry due to the scale of water management. The game is to engage all these stakeholders well in advance and also demonstrate ESG collateral benefits where possible (like the new village dispensary, local training and employment etc). The TZ government is really hot on all licences now having clear and significant benefits directly in country. HE1’s done well to lay down that trail over the past year or two.

Wasn’t me 🤷‍♀️

Presumably the poster isn’t “new to trading shares” and is just trolling, given their second post, but no harm in giving people the benefit of doubt otherwise we’d all end up joining the cynical bashers squad rather than discussing anything relevant or constructive here.

Small exploration companies listed on the AIM are about as risky as it gets for new investors, so be careful. This share gets traded up and down like a yo-yo but the company is at a stage of development now where it could become more reliable and more valuable over time. Good luck, do your research.

I’m not sure an unanswered 9am post is old news at 10am but thanks for the advice

Only one report is necessary for that kind of thing. Account is gine already. Unfortunately with randomised IP address marking and disposable email addresses it’s not easy to apply a general block

Remember that war usually means a market shift towards risk off investments so it could cut the other way, so far so good

Thanks, I’ll have a deeper look at those funds

Definitely. I think the appearance at the US helium conference and the BluStar acquisition absolutely point to an opportunity to raise capital on the US markets, which are far more attuned to risk than London

Yes, I don’t think there are fund investors. The list I’ve looked at seems to be ISA and SIPP shsreholdings