Member Info for Blubay

The company has zero debt. It has enough working capital until H2 2025. It already has capital in the bank for all planned operations in that timeframe (subject to Colorado acquisition). It has anticipated revenues starting in H1 2025. It is looking at the options for major finance for the next project after that. Q1 2025 is probably the next opportunity to discuss financing.

To be fair, we don’t know what we have until we see an independent validation of the complex reservoir modelling. If we knew what we had the SP would hopefully be a good bit higher, and hopefully will be when we do.

Unfortunately it’s one of the tactics of multi account trolling to make discussion boards unreadable and hostile to discussion, so they become dominated by sentiment based trading threads (in either direction).

Too many variables to make general predictions like that, but obviously it’s positive news expected. What would have more impact on HE1’s SP would be independent confirmation of the reservoir modelling, evidencing the scale and scope of their recoverable and contingent reserves. We know the ‘unique’ geological nature of the discovery makes that challenging so the market remains understandably cautious. It will come.

Yes, fully aware thanks, just commenting on the probabilities and what the company has announced to market. We know the drill permit hearing is on 18 October, we know the US Summit is end of October, and we know that’s also the heads of terms agreement for acquisition date (if permits granted). We also know the average time for granting an ML with ESAI in TZ, and we know the CEO is hoping that happens by the end of the year. So, just objectively, we can have a good idea of the news sequence. Loads of news coming.

Honestly, this looks out of sequence in terms of news flow. Next news is most likely to be the drill permits for Colorado (18 October), the US Helium Summit, and conclusion of the Galactica-Pegasus acquisition, then spud dates. Meanwhile for Rukwa it will take probably 6 weeks or so for the ESIA certification (from 17 September = end October?) which then feeds into the ML process. Sure to be a busy period anyway and adding value at each stage. I think they will benefit from keeping Rukwa on the back burner for a bit while they capitalise on Colorado. It’s a better sequence for building out company value. Establishing a commercial footing there will put them in a far stronger position to negotiate finance for development at Rukwa. We’ll see.

First revenues from Colarado project expected H1 2025, already funded for commercial development.

Harder to predict timeline for Rukwa, the company has suggested roughly 12 months after licensing, so maybe end of 2025?

Surely the most important thing for new investors is not to be misled by any false expectations about risk and reward. We all agree HE1 is as good a bet as any on AIM, we’re all invested because they have significantly derisked two helium discoveries, including one already with funding for commercial development. That’s great, but don’t pretend everything is a done deal or risk free, it isn’t.

“ Mining Licences (MLs) are granted under Division B for medium-scale mining operations, whose capital investment is between US$100,000 and US$ 100,000,000 or its equivalent in Tanzanian shillings. ”

You cannot have an ML if the total exceeds $100m

“ Special Mining Licences (SMLs) are granted under Division B for large-scale mining operations, in which the capital of investment is not less than US$100,000,000 or its equivalent in Tanzanian shillings.”

They’ll get the licence, no reason to expect any issues. The application for ML/SML is exactly the same. The cuf off is whether it tips over $100m in total investment. The advantage of an SML is that it grants mining rights for the entire lifetime of the resource (rather than 10 years renewable for an ML).

Of course they will get an ML/SPL, just a question of timing and conditions

That’s not quite correct Hemo, SPLs cover any major investment above $100m. The original development concrpt was for $94m for 6 wells and modular plant. It’s possible they have dropped a lot on the cost as the CFO underlined that, and they have their own rig, but it will be pushing it with 20-30 wells, tie in, capex + opec

Seriously, look at the photo. Does that look like President Suluhu? 🤣🤣

Don’t worry, that was a previous president (Magufuli) not the current one, some years ago. It’s an old news story

Shouting “mining licence any day now” is just as daft as “placing any day now”, birds of feather, nonsense

As she says, the Rukwa project on lends itself to project funding (because the scale of investment is probably outside the scope of a small company like HE1 to raise from share capital alone). They’ll be hoping to use gas reserves as debt collateral, or revenue as debt payment surety. If things go well in Colorado then that project asset will rapidly increase in value (and they might be able to use it to leverage some finance in the US). It’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to borrow enough and keep control of all their assets, so it seems likely they’ll need an offtaker investment partner with deep pockets. It would be naive to rule out another placing though, it really depends how Colorado goes, maybe sometime before end of Q1 next year, maybe not.

“new to trading shares” 🤣🤣

HD, I think you’re being disingenuous. There has been a significant change but it’s open to different interpretations. We know that last year the immediate development concept for Rukwa (Tai) was to drill 6 production wells with a modular processing plant. In 2024, they moved to discover the fractured basement system and drill Itumbula. We know the development concept has changed on back of that, 20-30 wells requiring longer and larger planning. The move to Colorado makes complete business sense if it can fill the gap for a more manageable first project with nearer term cash flow. It is of course also a diversified hedge.

The barometer of trading sentiment includes both sides. It’s about the only useful indicator on these boards, filtering obscures those signals