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The point is correct though, in terms of market price impact. Until they are in a position to publish verified findings from the reserve modelling it remains speculative, which is fine. Everyone knows that verifying this unique and complex model to industry standards is not going to be straight forward.

How are they ‘not trying’?

Drill permit approvals for Colorado - mid October

Conclusion of project acquisition - end October

US Helium Summit - 28-30 October

First production well spud date - November-December?

Mining licence award for Rukwa - before end 2024?

Commercial helium production in Colorado - Q1 2025

Project finance for Rukwa - Q1 2025

Commercial helium production in Rukwa - end 2025?

They already bought their own rig. What on earth would they do with another one? There won’t be any drilling until there is a mining licence and a financing deal. That won’t happen before early 2025 at least.

Not a clue, too many variables. I think the current broker target is not unreasonable in that news timeframe. I’d expect a significant re-rate once commercial revenue is flowing.

We know when that news is due. The permit hearing was moved to 18 October, and the agreement to proceed by end of the month if those conditions are met.

Drill permit approvals for Colorado - after 18 October

Conclusion of project acquisition - end October

US Helium Summit - 28-30 October

First production well spud date - November-December?

Mining licence award for Rukwa - before end 2024?

Commercial helium production in Colorado - Q1 2025

Project finance for Rukwa - Q1 2025

Commercial helium production in Rukwa - end 2025?

What update are you expecting?

You were a Strong Buy three days ago, what’s changed?

I think you’re wrong there Herbie. Agreed it’s a ruthless game but I think HE1 is one of the very few AIM exploration companies that will not only survive but succeed in becoming a profitable producer. Risks remain but I think they’ll pull it off.

Thanks, as I said, nowhere has the company mentioned ‘three weeks’. You have invented that number. The CEO has quite correctly stated that…

“we do know historically that ML applications can take anywhere from a few weeks to around three to four months. We’re certainly hopeful that we’ll be within that three month window of having that ML awarded, which would be great to have sights on that before the end of the year.”

So, less than 1.5% daily movement on less than 20% of average daily volumd? Quiet as a church mouse. Where are these large trades?

Manifesto - honestly, I’ve been back over every recent RNS and interview. I may have missed it but I cannot find any reference to ‘three weeks’. If anyone has that info then I’d be very grateful. I honestly think the company has been careful not to lead anyone to expect quick news about Rukwa before there is news about Colorado (and I think it would be misleading to imply they have). I’m really looking forward to news of drill permits granted for Galactica on or after 18 October, followed by the US helium summit, conclusion of the acquisition, and first producer well spud date. Also hoping to hear about a ML or SPL for Rukwa by Christmas, first gas take from Colorado and some finance news for Rukwa in early 2025.

Steviom - I’m not envisaging any delays at all. The process will likely take the same time that it usually takes. They’ve done a good job with all the necessary community and political groundwork over the past months as you say (but so has everyone else in line for a licence, they’re not an exception). It’ll be fine but it won’t be next week. Born in Africa, fully aware how things go thanks. The problem here is people ramping up the ML timeline, creating false expectations that will just get shorted as ‘delays’ if they then don’t happen. It’s far more likely the next news is from Colorado.

ML for medium to large scale mining operations, may take up to 90 days or more, depending on complexity and ESIAs. If it’s an SML for a large investment project then it will likely take longer. If they’ve managed to budget under $100m investment (interesting question), and if the area water management proposals aren’t too complex, then it would hopefully be classed as ML. Even a provisional small scale licence would take up to 60 days, and the ESIA process alone could take 6 weeks. I just cannot imagine the District Council, the regulatory board, the water management board, and the Ministry stages of consultation all being completed in the rapid timescales some people are suggesting. In addition, it’s Africa.

It is of course still in the project GANTT chart

With the best will in the world, there is no evidence or reason to indicate that HE1’s application would receive special treatment over other applicants or be ‘fast tracked’. They did great work and played all the correct games to get their application completed by the last possible day. Lorna said that the anticipated timetable was based on how long other licence applications had taken recently. I may be mistaken but any reference to timescale seems to have been since removed from any interview that I can find. If anyone can find it, let me know!

Yes, the EIA certification is pre-requisite to the ML application so this process (up to 6 weeks) precedes that consideration.

Zoffy, appreciate the genuine risks of delay and drilling but just to be clear Galactica-Pegasus is not an ‘exploration’ project. It’s a development project in a producing helium field. The State16 well is already flowing free gas and the drills are development wells not exploration wells. There are of course some future options on further exploration licences but the current project is wholly focused on production.

I think everyone expects the mcap to rise significantly over the next year, as all the exploration investment translates into project development, with added value to resources, production and hopefully net income flows. Where it goes this week or this month is anyone’s guess though. Everyone has their own targets and timeframes for ROI. As long as you’re confident in your own research and risk then it doesn’t matter what anyone else posts here. No need to abuse anyone, or to report or filter anyone unless they breach LSE rules. And no need to clog up all the discussion threads by bickering. No one likes a bully, no one makes investment decisions based on shouting matches.

Next news is most likely to be from the hearing on Blue Star’s additional drill permit applications for the Colorado project, which was rescheduled until 16 October (decision to follow). The conclusion of the acquisition deal would follow soon after, end of October. I think it’s very unlikely there would be news on Rukwa before then. So couple weeks waiting news on any AIM share it’s pretty normal to see a slow drift of volume or/and price, which tends to bring out the shorters.