Member Info for BlahBlahDoh

Sick and tired of these personal attacks, which are actually breaking the board rules. We are here to discuss ORPH, not other posters. Peter seems to have misunderstood most of the contracts signed, and unaware that most of OO's various businesses and assets are not dependent on COVID-19, as CF himself states in the presentation currently highlighted there on the left. In addition to that, he seems to think the COVID-19 is a short to medium term phenomenon, which seems wildly optimistic with little evidence to support it. Nevertheless, this doesn't mean he should be belittled and insulted. If you don't agree with him, refute his argument using reason, ffs. And another thing, he isn't "subtle deramping" (boring cliche btw) he is merely attempting to discuss what the correct valuation might be, a perfectly valid subject for a discussion board.

"Are some posters obtuse or just stupid?"
Guilty

ORPH have been all over the place in their wearables data story. Sometimes they talk about future data gleaned from inhouse COVID-19 testing contracts, with the unproven hope of finding reliable bio-indicators i.e. they tie it specifically to COVID-19 early warning detection. In the interims however they seemed to link it instead with the massive vaults of historic genomic data from hVivo about flu and other viruses, which is now being formatted and consolidated onto ORPHs own data platforms. Perhaps both are attractive to potential bidders, and the mixed messaging is deliberate, aiming to attract different interest groups? If so, they might as well push the orphan disease databases too: if wearables really have advanced to be capable of complex diagnosis, why restrict it to fashionable pathogens.

Well that's disappointing: moniman posting upbeat sentiments? You can't trust anyone these days.

Imutex's value may not be fully reflected on the balance sheet, but that is hardly proof that it is not reflected in the share price. Anyone investing probably knows all about it, so it is a question of those who don't. When it's true (unknown) value is outed, it probably will have the effect of a dividend, as deepjoy outlined, but there are also the less tangible benefits of CF delivering another huge deal very quickly. It would add credibility to his other projections, and also increase awareness of the huge progress and outstanding potential in other business areas. Imutex was a revenue zombie for years before CF put 6000 volts through it.

True Jimzi, CF was delivering even before he did the incredible hVivo deal (deal of the century?) but since then he's done a handbrake turn, turbocharged the delivery van and pressed the accelerator to the floor. No sign of that stopping any time soon. Underhyped might be more appropriate: "hVivo" could potentially become a household word over the coming months.

Yes antelope, that is exactly what they are saying, and it IS controversial. However, many academics have moved to the view that it is a justifiable risk in order to speed up the search for a vaccine, and potentially save millions of lives (1 million dead so far in 9 months, worldwide). There is obviously no antidote, otherwise the risk would not be necessary, but the antiviral drug remdevisir offers some relief in some cases. Only healthy young people would be infected, and the mortality rates in the younger age ranges are extremely low (but NOT zero). My understanding is that the study CF was offering to volunteer for was different - not for full blown COVID-19, but using a modified strain of another less harmful coronavirus to mimic the relevant elements of COVID-19: therefore essentially risk free. CF will certainly not be volunteering for the human challenge trials, and is anyway probably too old. If they get the go-ahead, the trials will probably run in parallel (timewise) with the final phase 3 tests of the leading vaccine candidates. It is only when a vaccine is actually released to the general public that it's true impact on a population can be fully assessed, which is why exhaustive testing is essential before that momentous step, and why human challenge trials can potentially speed up the process compared to testing on artificial substitutes.

The Oxford vaccine ChAdOx1 is financially backed by the UK government, and Imperial College are involved in it's development (as well as being cited as academic lead for the trials), so it seems likely that's the one, as opposed to the German BioNTech vaccine ( BNT162b2) backed by Pfizer. The development team in Oxford, led by professor Adrian Hill, probably have a pragmatic approach to press releases, compared to Astrazeneca who may well have commercial reasons for issuing denials until a deal is finalised. Still no official word: must be squeaky bum time for the dealmaking negotiations?

Why, why, why-aye? You've lost the Geordie chapter of your massive fan club Moni, but maybe the notoriety was worth it. Keep on moaning the price up.

I don't think the location(s) have been decided, but Newcastle could be rumoured because there are a lot of cases there currently. That's missing the point really though: worlds first human challenge trials with announcement dependent upon regulators but expected imminently. Potentially front page news worldwide with hVivo front and centre?

"What post by citizenlane?" This one NST (today 8:07):
"The news that is not in the RNS, but in the papers, that, pending final approvals, HVivo will be contracted to carry out challenge studies with hospitals - at the Royal Free and in Newcastle is potentially huge. It essentially suggests that in partnership with govt and NHS this company will, alone in the world, take the lead in the most important clinical trials in any of our lifetimes. Dyor"

Hanwha Techwin have certainly dabbled in an extraordinarily diverse range of products, but currently supply CCTV surveillance and semiconductor systems and components. That Dow thread is surely worth pulling on though: orchestral manoeuvres in the dark! The relationship between Samsung and paper manufacturers Hansol is even more intriguing, and there is surely a very interesting story there quite different to the nonsense spun by their corporate liars.

I suspect the case will likely be tightly constrained though, with a laser focus now on patent validity and technical definitions, rather than corporate shenanigans?

Despite it's poor reputation for handling the pandemic so far, the UK is emerging as world leader in research with one of the leading vaccine candidates in ChAdOx1 and the worlds first human challenge trials about to start if the regulators approve it. Other countries will follow, just as they did when Edward Jenner, godfather of vaccination, defeated Small Pox. Historic moment for hVivo staff imminent.

It is perhaps worth noting that China has informally already approved not one, but two vaccines: one for the military and one for health workers, but very little information is available about either of them.

Good point Citizenlane. As well as generating revenue itself, this work should bring much greater visibility worldwide. Interest from the US in particular might affect other areas of the business, and could potentially boost valuations of various assets?

What about the Biden effect, assuming he wins, not just on US States but worldwide. On day 1, for example, he plans to introduce methane limits for new and existing oil and gas operations, changing the economic landscape for competing green industries in all states. Four years of such policies can only encourage much greater and faster investment, and the US re-engaging with a worldwide response to climate change would surely have an even broader effect?

Perhaps one of the most important factors affecting this stock is US energy policy. The current administration has engaged in an extreme attack on green energy, in favour of coal and oil. That may come to an abrupt end next year, and maybe that is what Zulch and his brokers are hoping for to flick the switch on their 'almost' sales?

If so, that explains why the 'alleged' deals are delayed by a few weeks. Such delayed decisions could run well into the next calendar year if the election is as fraught as expected.

When I suggested "value" in Sage (the company actually under discussion here) it was about the serendipitous nature of the buyback program. Comparing this to "incredible value" in housebuilders, which you were actually selling at the time, and now seem certain will "plummet" even further from an already undervalued position, seems an odd linkage. If comparisons of the uplifting Sage buyback program with your apparently negative leaning "value" of housebuilders was like apples and oranges, your more recent hindsight comparison with GGP is perhaps more like apples and casino chips. It seems you are now "not bovvered" about the buyback program any more, and have decided it is "almost meaningless". That's arguably slightly more relevant than your original comparison, yet it still doesn't seem to recognise, or properly evaluate, the actual value being discussed. As the Sage SP continues to show resilience in the face of COVID-19, the value of the program is arguably self evident.

"Or a Cruise Ship"
They could name it the Marie Celeste Clinic?

Surely not so much a reason for concern as an indicator of potential growth. If OO choose to invest in this area of operations it will be a departure from the radical cost cutting and contract boosting into a major growth trajectory. For Venn, and even more strikingly for hVivo, the difference before and after OO is already compelling, but any move towards expansion would be a real shift in gears.

I've been watching the cricket, and missed both yesterdays and todays SP action. More fool me, but I'm richer anyway, and not worried in the slightest about CF's style and ability. I reckon he could sell anything to Boris, even wearables data.
Carry on Cathal, despite the infamy, hur hur hur hur.