RE: Covid 1927 Jul 2020 21:02
Hi Nige-W
My comment about value in Sage was made on 18 March this year, and referred specifically to the period up to January next year, i.e. the length of the buy-back program. Comparing over a different time period is shifting the ground, an intelligent military strategy if you can get away with it.
The fact that there was value in Sage, due to the fortunate availability of large funds when the SP was relatively low, didn't imply that there is necessarily more value than elsewhere, but AFAIK the builders do not have such an extensive buyback program in place? I didn't claim that builders ARE cyclical, only that the market seems to value them as if they are, and hence the perpetually low PERS. Perhaps you are suggesting that that is changing, and therefore you expect builders PERs to rise over time purely due to a change in perceptions? If so, why, and why now?
It is true that Sage have historically been relatively slow growing, and for much longer than your selective comparison period, but they also haven't suffered massive contractions like builders have, which your period seems to accidentally avoid. Those contractions are the reason their PERs stay low of course, because no-one knows when the next one will come, but arguably COVID-19, Brexit and government anti-corruption initiatives make one more likely. Sage have a radically altered business model, strategy and new management over your chosen time period, so that past performance is probably a poor guide to future value, but in the period between March 18th this year and January next year, their share buyback program has, and will, buoy up the share price and is the equivalent of a hidden dividend.