Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

CAR,

Very brave of you to criticise the finance deal. LTHs think this is a great deal. Personally, with confirmation of a successful roll out and some actual sales numbers, a normal placing should have been available as when needed with less dilution to shareholders.

Pete,
If you are correct, then there should be a significant increase in revenue for the six month period to 31st March. I understand each cabinet holds 48 items. At $5 to Zoe per item that works out of approx £175 per cabinet for initial stock. So about £350k for 2,000 and £1,050k for 6,000. This is without any restocking revenue. So a major uptick in revenues expected, on the basis that everything is as reported.

Ox Distributing LLC (Ox) / The Schrader Family

The Group's beta-store programme with Ox Distributing is now complete, having enabled the Group to establish a market fit and genuine appetite for its products. As previously announced, this pilot saw the Group's products enter the market via convenience stores that were owned by the Schrader Family. Despite negligible marketing and no in store promotional spend, the results of the beta-store programme were extremely encouraging as Chill became the chain's number one selling CBD line and continued to see sales increase despite decreased footfall caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pete,
The following from the 15/2 RNS seems to confirm the Beta trial was in relation to the 18(?) stores (previously) owned by the Schrader family..........

Pete,
My understanding was that the Beta stores were the 18(?) Schrader stores rather than the 6,000 you suggest. Again, my understanding that the Beta trial was complete was that the trial in these 18 stores had completed. I may be incorrect, perhaps LTH will confirm or correct what exactly (and how many ) the Beta trial related to?

Vas,
I think you are about right on your retail figure of just under $10 with about $5 of that to ZOE as revenue. I think ZOE’s projected margin for profit is meant to be 50% but currently more like 30%. LTH will probably confirm these figures for you.

IC,

I wouldn’t say my comment was a “polite” hand grenade. I would suggest they are genuine comments that all LTH should consider. Keeping an eye on Twitter and Instagram followings is wise in my opinion. As regards, Ox Distributing, seems odd that they have gone into social media silence in general?

Hi,

I am not that teccy minded personally. But is anyone keeping an eye on how many followers Chill is getting on the likes of Twitter and Instagram? If Chill is gaining traction in the States, Zi assume we would expect the numbers following on social media to begin to increase?

I checked this mornings and Chill had 232 followers on Twitter and 615 followers on Instagram. Will be interesting if these numbers increase.

I must say the pictures on Twitter and Instagram are quite impressive. Some very good ideas there!

One thing that surprises me however is that Ox Distributing last tweet was 31st Dec 2019 and their last reference to Chill was 12th July 2019. Their last post on Instagram was about Chill but was on 3rd Sept 2019.

Vas,

You seem to be suggesting that any revenue received by ZOE is all pure profit ???

MCB,

Good post that. Wise words, in my opinion. BB2.

LUFC,

Thank you for that. Where do you get the FT info from? Which website. Do you need to subscribe or free? Many thanks.

Shiner,

Do you have a link to the interview where he inform that fund is holding JLP, please? BB2

Hi,

Another thing that Paul said was that previously he had over-projected figures, which I personally took that to be a reason for possibly "being conservative" with this projection. I have checked back and in his Broker Note dated 8th July 2020, he projected revenue for y/e 2020 of £64.8m. The actual revenue for y/e 2020 was £54.8m (which from memory we were all happy with). This just shows that a Broker Note is just one person's projection of figures using a lot of assumed date for prices, production etc without any inside info that has not been released to market. I personally think perhaps too much emphasis was placed upon the expectation of the Broker Note.

I wonder if a Broker Note will follow from Shard as their last one was 14th October?

Personally, I am happy to wait for actual news from JLP over the coming months and fully expect Leon to continue to deliver. If so, the share price will take care of itself, regardless of what projections are included in any Broker Note.

Finally, sometimes a period of consolidation is a good thing which builds a solid base for future growth.

Regards, BB2.

Hi Dorfan,

Thank you for reply.

Likewise, I believe the actual H2 figs will actually show growth (subject to metal price remaining strong).

My point regarding the Broker Note is that it is just a projection. What inputs are used for this projection will influence the outputs. I have not had time to read through it thoroughly but the obvious things are 2021E (only) includes 51.7k oz PGM (using 2,063$/oz net basket price) , 2,000k t copper (4.2$//lb) , 642k t chrome 135 $/t. These figures will obviously vary to the figures you used in projecting 70m EBITDA.

I did personally speak to Paul Smith yesterday. He agreed that his figures may be deemed, by some, conservative and JLP could well beat these figures. He stated he did not (obviously) know a likely production figure for copper for H2 nor the exact plans for Windsor PGM. It was evident that his projections are solely based upon the info already in the market, using his own projections re prices etc. As you would expect, the Broker Note does not include any "inside info" that has not been released to the market. Regards, BB2.

Craig,

Sorry to hear your news about your dad. You seem a genuine family bloke, happy to help your neighbours etc. At times like this, investments don't really matter. Look after yourself, and your mum. Kind regards, BB2.

Hi Dorfan,

Firstly, thank you for your previous posts. Some great info there especially considering your background.

As regards this post, I do not think it is such a big deal personally. H2 rev of 59862 and H2 EBITDA of 27593 is only Paul Smiths forecast. This may be lower than yours but you will both be using different assumptions. What metals prices are you using compared to his? Are you including much copper compared to him etc? I assume your closer to 70m EBITDA figure is for full year so a difference of 13.5m. This could easily be explained by the assumptions being used.???There will be no market sensitive info in his work that has not been released to the market.

Just my thoughts. Happy to discuss.

PJT,

You have an ISA allowance each year (£20,000 for 20/21 and also 21/22). You can either add your 21/22 contribution(s) to your existing ISA from previous tax years (with HL) or you can open your 21/22 ISA with a different provider to your existing provider (HL). You cannot, however, pay into more than one stocks and shares ISA in the same tax year. Well technically you can by transferring your ISA that you have already contributed to for that tax year to a new provider and then adding further to this new provider.

Obstando,

I have obviously seen evidence that Chill is on sale in stores in the States. However, to date, I have seen no evidence of actual sales being made (with the exception to the RNS regarding the Beta stores) or importantly repeat sales being made. If you have evidence that sales are actually currently being made, could you share your revenue expectations for the six months just about to end on 31st March. I assume ZOE will issue a trading update (last one Nov) to confirm these sales rather than waiting for year end accounts.

BD,

That is correct. But you would not sell ZOE shares today specifically in order to put them into your ISA after the 6th April. Unless, of course, you felt that ZOE shares were going to fall between now and 6th April.

Fred,

It could be that there is currently little demand for shares as investors are waiting for ZOE to finally confirm actual revenue figures for this six month period just ending. If so, the sp will naturally "drift" until news. Shares naturally tend to "drift down" rather than "drift up". Personally, I will be happy to buy in here, if and when ZOE show the smokes/pouches are actually selling in the stores in the States. At this moment in time, there is no evidence of this. If this means that I have to buy in at a higher price then so be it.......

For transparency, I am currently neutral on ZOE and do not currently hold shares. BB2.