Member Info for BIGBangs

STB - what do you think is going to happen?

More pressure put on ACA to get the deal done before the end of March. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tanzania-mining/tanzania-orders-water-cleanup-by-march-30-at-acacia-gold-mine-or-face-closure-idUSKCN1QP0JF

Sorry I jumped on the CEY thing just that it is something I am looking at regularly. The article you referenced was interesting - I think the big mergers are the way forward they will then take up the cream of the mines and be like an investment grade buy giving a good yield. That will free up the smaller companies to take up the rest being a more speculative/entrepreneurial bet as they build up the unloved mines that can still produce a lot of gold. I would not be surprised for Endeavour to be particularly active in Africa and Egypt. I also agree that more press about gold miners is very positive.

Sorry I can’t seem to open your link but here is the one I used. http://www.lse.co.uk/regulatory-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=rb4bybi6&ArticleHeadline=Notification_of_Major_Holdings

Hi Super, I am following CEY pretty closely at the moment trying and I am sorry to say failing to find a reason to invest there. I thought I had missed something but BR have actually reduced their stake from 15.2% to 14.98%. I am sure many of us read the CEY board - it does not give you much incentive to invest. I have also compared their market cap at 1.1 bn against ACA of .85bn yet they are forecasting production of less than 450 oz against our 500 plus in our restricted state. They pay 64% of their profit yet we will pay 50% and Egypt is proving do be just as difficult to operate in as Tanzania.

Hi Elly - very glad that Odey is invested rather than shorting- we will all remember that he was vocal about trying to stop Barrick voting on the deal but at the time I think that we established that his position was undeclared and therefore under 3% - are you aware of that has changed? I think he was raising his objections with the ‘authorities’ but nothing further was disclosed or has yet come out. My view for what it’s worth is that once ABX have disclosed all the details of the agreement they will no longer be insiders and should be able to vote, especially if it for an outright sale - unless of course ACA feel the deal is in some way more beneficial to them (ABX) than for the other shareholders- not something that ABX are likely to even try.

Super, your opinion is valuable to us but like my own it has no influence on the decision. As you say whatever happens is going to be very positive. I think the shorters will let the price jump up to £2.80 very quickly - filling the gap from the original drop - and they will pick up quite a few shares from people that have been phased our current drop, who can leave with a well deserved profit. The price may well fall back a little after that depending on the shorters appetite for risk before the price shoots up again. Or of course we could wake up over the next few days to news in which case things will move too quickly for any more shenanigans. ATB

If Barrick do acquire the shares that they do not own in ACA then they will do it by issuing shares not paying cash - still might happen but I think as events have unfolded more likely to be sold to Chinese - we will soon find out.

Doubt it Barrick have plenty of cash anyway. Divesting assets I think means at least ACA from Barrick and the Newmont assets in Australia they can then concentrate on Nevada which is all they really care about and make $7bn savings - at this level and not clearly fulfilling Barrick stated criteria ACA/Tanzania is just a distraction.

The confirmation of a ACA board recommendation which maybe a formality, will mean that ACA goes forward as a strong company potentially producing 800 ounces of gold. That will produce a SP of £4 to £5 by itself. Barrick’s hopes for Newmont just make the likelihood of a good deal with the Chinese even more likely £5/£6 then MB can show Newmont shareholders the type of deal he can put together within 10 weeks of being in the job. (With apologies to JT who did most of the work!).

Personally I don’t think the board of ACA will be trying to block any deal and any opportunity they had to come up with an alternative has long passed. They will be rewarded handsomely and quickly as the options vest. Barrick announced a deal in principle on the 20th Feb the earliest date they could have advised ACA of the detail was probably the 25th Feb. ACA have to do (limited) due diligence, convene a meeting to discuss and formally agree before sending off to lawyers/brokers etc to prepare a prospectus that can be issued to shareholders. These things all take time - I have previously suggested 2weeks to get all of this done - we are still within that timeframe. The shorters have maximised on the position but this is just a blip - be patient - perhaps stop looking at the SP so frequently and you will sleep better. We have been waiting for Barrick and GoT to agree something, they have. We knew that the options being granted would be a pivotal sign, they have been. Now we are waiting for confirmation of the deal and potentially a buyout, it will come.

I am amazed and disappointed that City did not do a transfer but their clients are probably exiting in droves. I am a holder here but I fear the other sells listed may genuinely be from other holders in anticipation of the 22m hitting the market - a MM won’t keep them, I am not even sure if they are alllowed to. The price may still drop in the short term but City would have surely have been drip feeding shares into the market for a while before they went down which has been affecting us. Once the overhang is cleared and hopefully news of progress in Tanzania hits this share should finally start to climb to a much higher level.

I think the value of the gold stored at the ports etc was reported at $250 million - still quite a lot.

Thanks Elly, nothing can be done about ACA’s historic dealing with GoT good or bad - it is what it is. I struggle to think what issue in particular Newmont could have that would not be resolved by a sale of the asset on agreed terms allowing ACA to move forward under the GoT preferred Chinese ownership. Interesting point highlighted by Hopeingmore on CEY board - he has calculated that CEY pay the Egyptian Government 64% of its profit - 50% of economic interest doesn’t sound to bad when put against that.

Super you are of course quite right. The avenues that the ACA board could reject a proposal brought to them by their largest shareholder in conjunction with the Government of the country in which they operate are realistically so small that they are not worthy of consideration. The delay if we can call in that is simply the process. We will have the details soon, if you doubt that then I suggest you sell, there must be lots of companies out there that are likely to double in value over the next few days just buy into one of those.

Of course I am still holding. This is the work of the shorters we know they held less than 0.49% now hold 0.61 so they have sold at the very least 500,000 shares - on such low volume it is all their action. We are expecting news - there has not been any yet but people are obviously panicking which is exactly what the shorters want you do do. If you are worried then sell or try and trade - I’m holding tight.

It’s all purely guesswork and speculation based on nothing in particular STB. The figure of £4.27 would be buyout price but remember even if what I picked up was correct he would have only been talking round figures. Nothing has happened yet and that may not be our target price but it is a lot more than the SP!

I listened to Barrick presentation today about the proposed merger with Newmont. During the phone in MB made a comment that may very well be relevant to us. He indicated that Barrick are likely to get in $1.5 bn from a sale soon - it wasn’t quite in those exact terms but that it what I took from it. If I speculated that could be from sale of its ACA holding then:- $1.5 /64% *100 would put ACA value at $2.34bn - that is after completion of arrangements with GoT. That’s £1.76 bn / 412m shares which would give us £4.27 per share. Total speculation on my part based only on an answer to a different question that I may well have misinterpreted but who knows?

Ok so now o look more closely yes Shandong (state owned value $7bn) announced a strategic alliance last year but back in 2015 Barrick and Zijin ($4bn) also entered into a strategic alliance. I have banged on about JT’s excellent Chinese contacts in the past - looks like we have several Chinese options to choose from.

I just looked them up Elly. I honestly know nothing about Chinese miners or the Chinese stock market in general. Wikipedia reads like they are a major player being responsible for 20% of all Chinese gold production. I am aware that Shandong (also about whom I know very little) have been the name mostly associated with Barrick and assumed to be the likely buyer of the Tanzanian mines. What led you to research Zijin?