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Hi Super, you contacts with the press office have always been pretty reliable - if we knew when the meeting was taking place between ACA board and Barrick then without being privileged information it would be very useful to know.

Surely whilst still dealing with the integration of RRS merging with Newmont is going to take a massive amount of time and energy - if they sell ACA for a good price then they will do so. A while ago I suggested that whilst I was very happy with becoming part of Barrick the quickest route to the highest return would be if we were sold to the Chinese - that must now be the most likely route. Barrick have been talking to Shandong and others for some time, JT went as far as suggesting they it was almost 100% likely that this would happen and at the end of the day he should know. If anything I think our value just went up.

I am a long term watcher of this share having dipped in and thankfully out from time to time. I am grateful to many commentators on this site but really this company seems to produce one set of dissapointing results after the other. There appears to be no end in site to the court proceedings whilst your profit and production fall. Information that appears to have been known to the board appears to be withheld from shareholders whilst the SP bounces around trying to interpret a fair value. I fully appreciate that you are invested for the future and that could still be bright and I totally respect the fact that your CEO operates without a salary but until things are sorted out the downward pressure on the SP seems more likely to push you below £1 than move you forward - why do you put up with it?

Without news I am predicting that ACA SP will go to about £2.80 this week, I have no intention of selling any of my shares.

We don’t know what Barrick’s motives are but they are certainly trying to make the process simpler by removing some of Newmont’s takeover barriers. These figures are too big for me to properly contemplate but the nil premium merger would save $100’s of millions by reducing admin, duplication costs alone - that money would go straight to the bottom line of the new co. Newmont valued at $19 bn and Barrick at $22 bn so an all share deal would be a basic 50/50 arrangement. The management might not like it but shareholders would certainly benefit. This is not the first time that a merger has been mooted but if it was going to happen then pre Goldcorp would be the time.

Thanks Super, 1000 shares valued at $36000 doesn’t seem much of a stake - I suppose they are just trying to establish how much appetite there is amongst other shareholders - including the all powerful BlackRock - for the proposed merger they are proposing. Barrick are proposing a merger for nil premium along the lines of the RRS deal and the cancellation of Newmont takeover of Goldcorp which was paying a 17% premium. Cancelling the Goldcorp deal will cost $650 m. At current price Newmont has a market cap of $19 bn so the merger would mean Barrick are fairly similar (give or take the odd $billion) but follow the proposed Goldcorp deal ($10bn) they would be much smaller. It’s worth remembering that the merger route is only sensible if the shares are currently trading at fair value which in the case of ACA would, in my view £5 to £7 ish. To me selling ACA frees up Barrick to go for the bigger deals that they are really interested in.

Sorry Super but a two tier price structure would be unprecedented and is not going to happen. We are not giving away 50% of the business but 50% of the economic interest which will take into account all taxes and royalties paid. We do not need a two tier system we simply need a very good price for all of our shares. The institutions bought in at £5.75 (and stuck by us through all of our troubles) if we achieve anything like this figure for each and everyone of our shares then I can’t see anyone complaining - Barrick could have made an offer for the company at any time over the last 2 years and there would have been very little that we as minority shareholders could have done about it. Remember also there is some advantage to Barrick in offering a price similar to the float price, as long as it can be justified, it underpins their own balance sheet position. If they decide to support an offer from the Chinese then again a £5.75 offer avoids any potential isssue or conflict. The stock market is rarely fair but I think for all the reasons we have outlined we will be treated well and leave happy.

Hi good evening Super. You are quite right that the ACA board have a duty to all shareholders. The fact that Barrick led the negotiations does put them in a difficult position. The arbitration process was always just a wise precaution but battling against the country in which you operate is never a good idea even if right is on your side. The 50/50 split of the economic interest is not outrageous Anglo already pay an effective rate of 54% - 50/50 is the way forward. I believe that for the historical issues and the fact that Barrick have handled the negotiations the deal that we will be offered with be extremely generous - that avoids any conflict which is what all sides will be aiming for. When you buy a share in a company you are not guaranteed and indeed rarely does the % you buy remain constant as new shares and options are issued - it is likely that the 16% that it is proposed for GoT will come from a subsidiary operating company created for the purpose but in any event the neatest was to sort this out is for an offer either from Barrick themselves or the Chinese that is at the worst fair based on all the facts. Barrick are perfectly within their rights to negotiate the deal especially if requested to do so by GoT as they were. If Barrick make an offer themselves then they will not be allowed to vote their shares meaning the remaining 34% will decide and will probably require a 75% majority - if Barrick put forward a deal from the Chinese then I think they will be able to vote but they will get exactly the same price for their shares as we do so no special arrangement. Trying to fight the will of a 64% Shareholder presenting something that is fair would be pointless and would fail. The prospect of selling off our Tanzanian assets and sticking a pile of cash into ACA to go off exploring would fill me with dread but I very much doubt it will come to that. To sum up my view - ACA board have very little actual power but they have to be seen to be doing their duty to all shareholders. Barrick have made their position more compromised by leading the negotiations and there has been much talk of historic issues that existed at float. The best way to solve these issues and settle a fair resolution with GoT is to make or facilitate a strong offer for our shares - that is what I am sure they will do.

I am always amazed with how easy they drive the price down to facilitate a number of larger buys - not checking minute by minute but I have noticed a buy for 150k shares and two of 40k shares - don’t be mislead by the slight dip in the SP we still have a long way to climb.

You could be right Tiger but if you have ever tried to sell a part of a company then you will know it is much more difficult to do than selling the whole thing. I also think that to retain one mine in a country that may just scrape into the Tier 1 criteria is fraught with problems. Presumably Barrick would buy up ACA as you suggest and then value and sell of the mines they don’t want - that’s a lot of work for perhaps, in their world, little advantage. I’d be happy to take 1 GOLD share for 2 of my ACA shares but I would also be content to cash out with a cash offer from the Chinese. I think we will know next week, the week after at the latest and however the dice fall we are in a great position.

Barrick issue statement confirming that it is reviewing the possibility of merging with Newmont. This would be massive - no specific influence on ACA although I would think it would make a sale to Chinese more likely.

Put it on your credit card Pat - by the time you have to pay we could well be there - sounds great enjoy.

..... I also expect them to be generous.

It is always possible but I think it more likely and will generate the best price if they sell off all the mines in one go. I note your comment to dimi but I don’t think that Barrick will worry to much about the feelings of the interim board and it makes sense to get the deal and sale/purchase agreed at the same time - I would not be concerned either way but i don’t think they will want to go through two procedures when they could handle it with one, especially if you call the shots and own 64% of the company.

Hi dimi - thanks for the note - £3.40 not bad pre takeover although I obviously still have faith in £4plus leaving the door open for a £5 plus bid - we will just have to wait and see - I did notice a 430,000 plus share buy go through after the bell at £2.60 so perhaps we have a new institutional investor taking a quick bite - probably won’t be the last if they can find the shares. I’m betting on a Chinese takeover and all the 888 share buys would confirm that if I believed in such things - sale would leave Barrick to concentrate on their Tier 1 assets especially Nevada which is where they seem most interested. Pat happy birthday for tomorrow you deserve a bit of a celebration!

Personally I think that Barrick will use next weeks meeting with the board of Aca not just to outline the proposed deal with GoT but to put forward subject to shareholder approval either an offer from Barrick directly for the shares they do not own or an offer from Shandong for the whole company. This would make a lot of sense and get things tied up in one go. I am feeling very bullish this morning so I will guess at £5 to £6. Don’t be tempted to sell too soon, we knew this was coming and we have held through the hard times, you can be confident that the SP still has a long way to rise and your original decision to buy in will be vindicated. Hold hard.

My bet is that the 16% will be of a new operating company going forward I.e not giving GoT 16% of the assets in addition to the $300m but 16% of the operation going forward as part of 50/50 economic interest which makes sense and is obviously better for existing ACA shareholders but as yet this is not clear. I think we can call this a good day.

Elly - As this is a material deal I think it does have to go to shareholders but that is only a formality and of course depending on the details - payment profile - share distribution you may be correct otherwise EGM requires 14 days notice so still before end of March. Any buyout offer would of course have to go to a shareholder vote.

Welcome RA - I agree - anyone that needs convincing should take a look at the pre dispute account for Y/E 2016 and the massive potential outlined therin. I can accept that it will take a little while to get back up to full production but the company has commented several times that they have been updating and refocusing BULLY so that when things do get back on stream it will be able to maximise its true potential. All this will only be relevant in determining our buy out price as the chances of ACA continuing as an independent company are about zero.

Price may fall off peak at close as day traders exit with a well deserved 10% for one days work but if they have sense they will be back tomorrow and may well hold as the facts become clearer.

I could come up with a dozen variations of how we could calculate figures based on the information we have. Here are a couple.

SP at float - £5.75 - 410m shares in issue = market cap £2.35 billion. Pay $300m = £235m to GoT = new mkt cap £2.1 billion. With existing shares = SP £5.12.......of 16% of co given to GoT by increasing shares issues then £2.1b divided by 488 m shares = £4.30.

I have previously indicated why the £5.75 figure is the point of least resistance for Barrick but I agree that it is normally irrelevant. The note from Barrick indicates mines will be operated through company in Tanzania and this would suggest to me and still seems more likely that they create a company with 100 shares and give 16 to GoT 84 remaining with ACA (UK) meaning that GoT have 16% share of operating company going forward and 50/50 economic split after taxes etc.

We can only come up with figures when we know the details but I am sticking with £4 plus on the deal with GoT and hoping for £5 plus when ACA acquired by China (most likely) or taken with Barrick.

Of course I have bought a few more at £2.32 and feel pretty confident that however the dust settles when it does we will be very happy.