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TWatcher, I am going to have to give ODX the benefit of the doubt here. With the previous unfortunate twittering we have all been subject to I just can’t accept that they would risk it again without being extremely, extremely confident of positive news to follow. Another week ticks by, I am more cynical than I was but I still have faith based on fundamentals (collaboration, product and need) that all will be good.

It occurs to me that we often talk about the holy grail test that receives home use approval. Has anybody actually used a qualifying test and is it much easier to use that the tests we are familiar with? I am hoping that the Ulster University research data will establish beyond doubt that our test can be efficiently used within the home by unqualified individuals. It would seem totally ridiculous to me, after all of this time, if a better, quicker or more efficient type of test is out there as we would have presumably shifted further in our design if that were the case? Mologic were not shy in stating that their test was the best in the world certainly with the new delivery method that we have already incorporated. Surely it becomes a case of the regulatory bodies catching up?

Great post again Okehurst - I agree.

TWatcher, once again you are proactively providing useful information. You will not be surprised that I disagree with your conclusions. I do not see the RNS as disingenuous as it is presumably easier as a first route to obtain professional use authorisation, that would not stop them proceeding forward to obtain home use approval and potentially hope to benefit from an EUA in the interim if the product was believed suitable.

It could be supplied for home use under an EUA.

Good morning Oak. My figures a loosely based on ODX’s previous reporting that they make c50% profit. Mologic are not for profit co and we are a normal commercial enterprise we cannot and would not compete. I have taken Mologic $2 (£1.45) as the basic cost price and effectively doubled it to produce the profit margin, so our sale price would be $4 (£2.90) and our profit $2 (£1.45). My proposition is that Mologic will supply 3rd world at cost but that more established markets will pay a more commercial price $4 and we will be working in that market.

Ok so we know Mologic are basically non profit but they do not operate at a loss, therefore we can assume that the $2 (£1.45) covers all of their costs which will presumably be similar to those of ODX. Mologic will try to supply 3rd world counties first (I realise and accept not exclusively) but that will leave a lot of opportunity for us, hopefully with our fully approved home use test or through a manufacturing agreement with them which I believe we already have. Nobody expects a commercial operator to sell at cost but if we work on our normal, even tweaked profit margin and get on with the job then that should give us a Net Profit of £145m per annum (pre tax). Give us a P/E of 3 and that might produce a SP of about £2.20 with our current production capacity. Quite a leap from where we are but at least we have Mologic base figure to build on with our estimates - I recall David Evans has been reducing his expectation to I think £1.70 but that would appear to be a base now. (?)

Sorry pending result of ODX’s own submission.

If we are entering into a guessing game then I would certainly anticipate that concluding a deal with a third party has been put on hold waiting upon/dependant upon the reluctance of ODX’s own submission - certainly what I would do.

Good to note even Twatcher believes ODX will produce a test for HMG.

AgentB, surely the number of people that would necessarily be involved with such a large scale cover up would make it impossible to implement?

I fail to understand why the market is not responding more significantly to this important confirmation. Must be final step before order confirmation.

Great post Tonic, quite a journey but if it was easy everyone would be doing it.

Although I would certainly have liked the Ulster trial results to have been released, I read the RNS as positive. We have come to accept that in order to achieve Sovereign test status ODX have to follow a process, the addition of the Ulster trial results, which must be positive as we otherwise would have received comment to that effect is a significant move forward. A recent report from Oxford University has indicated that although still effective against serious illness/hospitalisation/death those vaccinated are more likely to pass on the delta variant (increasing infection numbers) than those who have had COVID and developed antibodies by fighting off the disease, therefore we can expect the incidence of infection to increase as the vaccination process continues, confirmation that our test is effective against the prevalent Delta variant is therefore very important, not just for the UK but Europe and, looking at the numbers, especially the USA. We have suffered through political shenanigans and questionable decisions but I remain invested as I believe we are finally reaching the point where our commitment to this share will be repaid in full. Don’t forget that in addition to the antigen test we are also extremely well placed with antibody testing which must surely, finally, be recognised as a significant and useful marker, otherwise we will be pumping new variants into our arms every six month’s limiting potential supply to other less wealthy parts of the planet. Sorry this post is not well constructed but pretty busy elsewhere today.

I for one am comforted by David Evans tweet and think his decision to post is significantly positive.

Hi Benny, David Evans was a Director of the company until 2007, I believe he continues to hold a significant (not notifiable) of shares.

With that balance sheet how could Biosure have purchased the manufacturing licence potentially worth millions from the developer? No chance.

You should not feel bad about bringing to light information which is freely available from Companies House. I admit to being surprised that things are so thin and sincerely doubt they have the home use approval they claim. It is only when HMG finally step up and formally give the relevant approvals that the chicanery surrounding who can and cannot do what will finally end.

From what you have established Okehurst, Biosure certainly don’t seem like a company that should have beaten ODX let alone Mologic to the relevant MHRA approvals and I struggle to believe that they have.

Useful update - thanks everyone. Please keep us updated.

Thanks Oakhurst, by any chance did you notice the time of the update?