RE: HMG buy price for an lft14 Sep 2021 16:03
TWatcher and Okehurst, I certainly believe that a profit of £1 is an acceptable position - personally I would expect a little more than that and have postulated some figures based on £1.45. As you will know the important factor when trying to convert that into an SP is how you determine the longevity therefore demand of the product you are producing. This has previously led to much speculation on this very board. As time goes on and we know more I have no hesitation in believing testing with be with us for the foreseeable future but almost certainly for the next 3 years probably 5 or more. I do not believe that HMG will cover the costs forever and therefore there may well be a downturn in usage (but the world is a big market place), difficult to say depends on so many variables, hospitalisation and deaths being the biggest of them. It’s fairly easy to make a guess that’s is the best we can do at this point. At £1 that would be around c£1.60 (3yr p/e) £2.67 (5yr p/e) and based on my £1.45 profit figure between £2.32 and £3.87. That is of course maintaining the same level of production - you would expect this to increase as over time and has other markets develop. So anything between £1.50 and £3.50 would be my guess.