Member Info for big-blue

And another article today, for more you can do your own search.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9149537/Covid-EU-leaders-discuss-plans-week-roll-vaccine-passports.html

The important point is that the passport issue was going to be a public debate, and it has now happened. How quickly a consensus emerges adn system put in place remains to be seen. The various stock reactions show the opening of the debate is viewed positively by the markets.

As I paraphrased before, "wouldn't want to be out of theis over the weekend, or week day". A consensus may emerge very quickly and stocks like IAG will catapult (my target is 180). BUt prolonged debate will hurt the stock and there may even be back peddling is a impasse occurs.

I note in all the articles I read there is no reference to individuals being able to buy a vaccination privately, the discussion is around state mass vaccination. Private vaccination at a very affordable level may be the solution - look out for that in the coming public discussion in the next week or so and the response to it!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another interesting read in the public domain about the call for vaccine passport and the potential political spanner in the works.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-set-to-become-worlds-most-powerful-passport-in-2021/

NOTE: some will have not been amused with my anti-EU angle. Read the above articel and note in the opening there is no reference to the extent of vaccination in the UK up to the date of the artical (yesterday). Draw your own conclusions.

No suprise
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/greece-presses-case-for-covid-vaccine-passports-but-other-eu-states-wary
No it is out in the open in public forums, can be discussed.
Greece may go it alone causing very serious split in the soviet europe system. Key tourist destinations like Greece need the tourist dollar and fast.
But there are goinng to be significant political issues to over come, a lot of chest beating liberals;
" Concerns were aired during a recent meeting of EU health ministers, and key capitals including Berlin are wary of any system that discriminates between those fortunate enough to have received the vaccine and the rest."
However, the tourist dollar is more articulate than liberal bleedin' hearts so some destinations WILL be accepting vaccination evidence on a country/ country hook up. BUT, the German government [and others] may ban it's own people from travelling under vaccine passports regressing back to Warsaw Block travel restrictions.

Wider world pressure to open up travel using vaccine passports may well force the hand of EU to accept a centralised system but the development and implementation of a system needs to be moved on very quickly before the opportunity is lost to the liberals and the left. It will end up being introduced eventually as the need to open up travel will become a world priority but delay may result in a valuable spring and summer tourist season being lost for countires that are desperate for it.

The demise of Norwegian Air’s London-NYC service has been mentioned several times here today, with some (rather bafflingly) dismissing this development as not particularly significant.

If you look at IAG in isolation, but across the board the SH and holiday carriers were all significantly up. How does Norweigian demise help Easy Jet? There is more in the media about covid passports, I haven't had a look through yet but the profit taking this morning is being subdude by new buys.
Passportt is now on the menu, what we now need is a standard world wide system. There will be ups and downs as the meandering goes on to a system but the next milestone to look for is a general agreement on a system.
BUT, and I warned of this from the start, the UK vaccinations may not be recognised as they are not being distributed according to the instructions. It was mentioned on R4 that the EU may not recognise UK vaccination. And the people responsible for that is BLAIR and his minions trying to save the country from back stage. I think once again that self-important narcissistic fool is about to do more damage out of office to the UK than when he was in office.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/travel-news-quarantine-covid-vaccine-passports-summer-holidays/

This is why there could be political problems with the passport. I do think that the benefit of being able to open up travel again far out weigh any issues like this. I hope the public discussion is now properly kicked off with the FT article.

Once on the agenda, there will be no going back. IAG now over 6% even against profit takers.

I have two targets, IAG 180p, EZY 900p in this sector. EZY about to go 7% up, IAG now 5.5% up and rising.

I'm attributing today's uplift more to Norwegian stopping transatlantic flying - means less competition on those routes for IAG

But EZY is up 6%, TUI 3%, WIZZ 4% .... I think it is much more to do with the passport hitting the main media, the FT. Only way is up from here.

Covid passport needs a central hub though. Now it is in the public domain here more can be said. There are various pitches looking to establish control, stressing that they are not for profit is ofmeaningless becasue there is always someone in the chain making a buck or two. There are other intiatives elsewhere. A system where each country is issuing a
their own unique list of acceptable vaccines will not work because some countries will not be using them for supply reasons. So a central register of acceptable vaccines is required which all countires recognise with common parameters, such as travel allowed 3 weeks to 6 months. The next step is getting the local vaccination center to upload bulk vaccination data to authorise the use of a Q code as suggested in the article, the same as printing out your own boarding pass. That will be the difficult bit as too many players try to compete to be the data processor. It must not be fragmented, it must be under a central and simple control structure.

After that the cost will have to be sensitive to the travel market. This must not be seen as an opportunity to slap a couple of hundred quid on a short haul. People will simply not pay it. It needs to be under£20 as a maximum or else it will fail, just as the airport testing has failed due the extortionate fees. If there was proper consideration the scheme will be totally free in order to get people flying and holidaying again in large numbers.

Then there is the political question about being able to buy a vacicnation ahead of others to go on holiday. That might not be too tricky if the cost is kept close to the actual cost of the vaccine and therefore very accessible, but again this must not be seen as a cash cow opportunity.

The covid passport offers a way out of the travel lockdown and can result in very significant recovery in all travel related markets. But it needs quick simple central implementation and priced to encourage all demographics to travel.

Sorry ft, was copying a paragraph to a bb in context. Like the way your copyright warning managed to place itself on my personal computer clipboard!!!!

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf971639-3836-4c2b-93f6-622d4e0846ad

In the UK, the government has said it will begin trialing its own health passport system, developed by biometrics company iProov and cyber security group Mvine. The scheme, first reported by the Telegraph, will allow thousands of people in two as yet unnamed local authorities to upload their vaccine information on to an app and help the NHS to track who has been inoculated

https://www.ft.com/content/cf971639-3836-4c2b-93f6-622d4e0846ad

Starting to get into print. Is this why the sp is having a surge today. Hold on to your hats, this could be it.......

I've flown Norwegian maybe a dozen times LH, to US and Argentina. Plane full every single flight. Other carriers with more expensive seats, half the back of the planes empty. Never understood why carriers don't do a last minute fire sale, or bring back standby, to fill up. Never know, might be able to sell them a choclate bar or two during the flight!

Bit of a stupid decision by the Norwegian government, plow so much of the soverign fund in to the venture and then withdraw support as the light is at the end of the tunnel. Would never have expected that to happen. Not as if Norway is short of a bob or two. IMO that was a very poor decision.

Not the best news for the rest of the sector. It removes competition which was forcing prices down. Lower prices mean higher load factor. It does not mean there will be more passangers for BA. BA should move in to the market sector and replicate Norwegian prices to ensure full planes. Full planes have a higher profit than half full planes with higher seat prices.

'cease trading'? Is that a little emotive? So operations are to be closed forever? All facilities removed? All desks closed, all signage moved away? Or are they just suspending long haul during the pandemic?

This is interesting. The holiday booking surge is reported to be based on the idea that people over 50 think they will have been vaccinated, and therefore free to travel. There is no vaccination passport in place, no public discussion! However, this sort of belief system can quickly influence discussion out of expectation. Given that Greece and Turkey are the popular choices, I wonder how long it will be before those countires identify the idea of open boarders to vaccinated holiday makers ahead of other popular destinations in Spain, Italy, Crotia and so on. And once the cat is out of the bag, how long before all the holiday destinations announce unlimited vaccine travel to avoid missing out.

Just imagine it, Ibiza invaded by ten thousand fat rich belly bulging 50+ swingers flabbing it out all over the dance floors to 80's synth pop. Time for us grummpy old buggers to take back control from the lazy feckless young, ha!

Target 190p, well my target is 180p so that shows how much the Germans know.

BA could help itself by bringing forward it's gurantee for waiving price for amendments to bookings. Currently you only get the protection when you book after March. Who is going to book now with no amendment gurantee? They need to react to competitor changes very rapidly in this market. I do hope BA doesn't end up with internal inertia leading to stagnet sales when they should be, ermm, flying [sorry about that].

I'm just going to stay locked in, still above entry point. If vaccine passports do make it to public discussion then it will be to late to buy-in for the inevitable rapid rise. Could happen today, next week or next month. To paraphrase, "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend, or week day".

feat, ha, feet..

It can be adopted globally tomorrow! All it requires is for the WHO to state which vaccines are valid, general time since vaccination date (say 1 calander month), and advise countires to recognise such approved WHO vaccinations. Governments then simply accept WHO recommendation. This is how the imposition of face masks was made around the planet in one go. The fact that face masks may well be a contributory factor to spreading the virus and that the WHO ruling may have been more of an anti-Trump stunt/retaliation is by-the-by. But as long as governments accept WHO direction then I would say the accpetance of vaccination allowing free travel could be in adopted very rapidly. I don't think there will be a long drawn out drift back to former travel levels, I think it will happen very quickly. Indeed, I am planning to buy a few cheap seats I can afford to dump latter. If, when, a vaccination passport is accepted all seats on that countries routes will be gone within hours. If it is not implemented and restrictions remain in place, well I loose a grand or two. I can happily accomplish that feet day trading so I am very used to it :) Critical cog in the machine will be being able to get the vaccination. For travellers from non-vunerable groups it will be a pay for system. That will be politically difficult for a lot of countires. Perhaps a surcharge will be needed, your dose plus pay for 3 developing world jabs or some such.