Member Info for big-blue

"All bookings made now for travel until 31st Aug 2021 can be changed without a fee."

Can you comfirm with link?
This means they have changed it, previously it only applied to bookings made after 31st March.

I was looking at Norwegian for Vagas in June/July for just a shade over £300 to LA, Spirit LA to Vagas normally less than $30. Will miss the cheapo LH now. Problem with booking BA is you do not have gurantee for free changes if you book before 31st March. Whilst I appreciate they think the market will only recover after then, I think they need to put out more feelers. Many people are ready to take a risk and book a bargin now - me included, since it is clear with vaccines that the end is in sight. No reason to move the gurantee from now and let the market rip. They have algorithms in place to automatically re price seats per tranche.

One spanner in the works is people deferring last year bookings to the new year. Good job there about 30 spare Dreamliners! Norweigan may have missed a trick there. The likes of BA will be wanting to clear out deferred travellers quickly to get new fare payinf bums on seats. Those Dreamliner seats may have still had some value for Norweigan.

Hope to see RNS that BA is to take half the fleet Monday! Another prediction.

Be carefull not to get carried away with the headlines.
"All travel corridors will close from 04:00 GMT on Monday. After that, arrivals to the UK will need to quarantine for up to 10 days, unless they test negative after five days." BBC
The routes are not closed. The change is that rather than changing the entry requirements for routes ad hoc, they have gone for all routes to require the same entry rules.
In fact, if you have a test and it is negative, you are only in self-isolation for 5 days, and for so many salaried people either furloughed or working from home anyway, there won't be a great deal of impact compared to what was going before.
The move was introduced to stop people flying to hubs in EU and then on to UK using an exisitng corridor.
Look closer at the actual changes, the routes and flights are not curtailed, only the quarantine.
The work around is very easy. Couple of days before returning to UK, phone though a VPN and say you have symptoms and get a test kit sent out waiting for you when you return. By the time you have sent the free test back and had the result, your five days is up! If you do have the lurggy, at least you know and can be sensitive to any change and get yourself into ICU pronto.

Right! Let's put this down in writing then

5 Zimbabwe Dollars says that within 15 mins of opening LSE 18th Jan 21, IAG will register 168p mid price.

Any takers?

Very true, load factor normally important, but I think half full flights with government cash injections around the world keeps the system ticking over ready to receive a quick turn around. Mothballing any part of the system would be a major problem. Wise operators will use the down time to bring forward servicing, I understand RR engines is rather busy at the moment bringing a lot of furlough for engine servicing, not verified though.

A number of agancies are developing various apps and passport schemes, the big milestone is when the separate systems are merged as one. I think given the scale of what is involved for the industry and the world tourist and travel industry, any group wanting to try and leverage the development of a common vaccine passport wil be cut-out pretty quick. The end is in sight and 'they' will want systems in place as soon as possible. Very big money at stake.

More perspective, from flightradar24.com

"Commercial flights ended 2020 down 41.7% from 2019. Total flights finished the year 27% below 2019 levels. Commercial traffic continued its slow rebound in December, rising to just 36.5% below 2019 levels (-39.8% in November). "

For perspective, have a look at www.flightradar24.com
Zoom out to look at the planet. There are much fewer planes in the sky, very true, but you may be very suprised just how many are still up there! Take a look and then consider whether the whole sector is as dead as you previoulsy thought.

"From 0400 GMT on Monday, all travellers to Britain must have a recent negative COVID-19 test and be prepared to quarantine at home for 10 days on arrival.

Britain’s current lockdowns ban most international travel, meaning that airline schedules are currently minimal. But the withdrawal of any quarantine-free travel will be a further blow for the industry."

First, this actually removes uncertainty about whether further restrictions are in coming or not. Some short term traders may move elsewhere for a couple of weeks, but may stay looking to take advantage of sharp swings due to volatile high volume trading.

Second, there is a simple change to the regs which most other countires have already implemented. It is likley that most airport test every single passanger irrespective of route at the entrance to the building to avoid a spreader from incting everybody in the departure lounge. I do not therefore see anybody deciding to either cancel an existing flight or choose to avoid UK becasue of this. I suspect a few will be very happy to be given the all clear.

Third, the quarantine times have dropped from 14 to to days as the travel rules have developed. So the same market dynamics will remain, i.e. short visits out due to quarantine, much longer (family, work) will continue as normal.

Fourth, the big boys and girls on the trading floors will be considering the psychology of the muppet day traders MORE than the implications of new rules. They will be looking to cash in on panic selling so there may well be a sizable drop in the first 5 mins.

But my estimate of 168+ after the first 15 mins of trading stands because people looking to take positions to cash in on the future significnat spike due to any key announcenemts on opening up the skies agian now have more clarity and certainty to know this is the bottom line in restrictions. And bear in mind, whilst early March is when things start to open up again, it is the forward announcement which is key. That might come as early as next week with the framework of a vaccine passport agreed. I am sitting on my pile and not trying to day trade this one.

Oh but I have. The price reached over 166 intraday, end of year was plus 168. Some rather large slings and arrows have been thrown at it over the last fortnight and where is it? Back in the low 160's. Support packages meaning reduced cash burn, restart initatives, vaccine passport talk in the public areana, more vaccine announcements to come, vaccination being ramped up, treatments improving. The forward assesment is looking good and plenty of speculators will be continuing to add early ready for the sudden up lift. Opening higher than Friday close, even by a mere 4% is perfectly doable.

Of course, it is my guess and nobody should take any notice of it. Only listen to someone who has an avatar name with 'Joker' in it, ha.

Giving sp predictions with an avatar name 'Joker'. Didn't think that one through did ya? LOL.

so it will open at 168.23 then. Let's see who is the closest.

@bigblue, there were 3 x 43m sells on Friday. We’re they all cancelled off or did one or more go through?

I was only referencing the one after close as somebody point to it.

15-Jan-21 16:43:46 161.25 -26,831,938 Sell* 162.10 162.25 -43m

LSE showes trade as CANC TNCP LRGS, so this was cancelled, a non price forming trade and large in scale deferal XOFF - off book.
So I do not expect any sp impact from this after 15 mins of market open on Monday. The closure of routes may be priced in by larger investors, but day traders will move elsewhere since the market will be locked in for the duration of lockdown . However, there will be news items that will keep interest and people taking positions ahead of possible news, and I keep plugging the vaccine passport which is the only viable way out of lockdown for travel, if it is affordable for all potential travellers and has a central organisation like WHO to coordinate and administer.

It could get a bit bumpy. One day it appears vaccine passport is not going to happen, the day after break through in talks announced. This and a couple of other shares with no duty are likley to get increasingly higher volumes with the volatility associated with news views v actual real world. Day traders paradise. Critical moment will be when formal vaccine passport announced but I think with the range of views coming out in the various media articles I don't think it will be a suprise move, it will be foreseeable and so keeping a large holding ready for the huge step up will be doable. Good to see it held against a lot of profit taking, many jumping on board with the vaccine passport stories.

tut! can always rely on the bloody yanks.......

You know that feeling when something is gathering momentum?

Just out form Computer Weekly

https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252494883/Coalition-proposes-secure-standard-model-for-Covid-19-passports

Funny how all these stroies are now appearing. Me thinks the stage is being set for a quick implementation of a global system. It needs to move fast before the liberal chest beating takes hold.

Wait for Wall St. They are more emotional with wide spread media stories. May profit take latter.

"Not recommending btc to myself or anyone, but I like to keep an eye on multiple things and noticed the similarities"

I've got this big sack of tulip bulbs I am selling. The futures for tulip bulbs is almost infinite. Why am I selling? I need the money to buy bigger ships to bring more tulip bulbs to the market.

jeeeeez, these goons try every trick to dupe people into this bitcoin crap. You would be better off putting your pension pot in CFDs, slightly lower odds of eventually losing everything you have.

We will not be looking at bitcoin graphs to see if what you say is true, because it is guranteed not to be.