Member Info for big-blue

I've been expecting ups and downs in supply - surprised it has been as consistent as it has so far. Just tell the commission that taking the vaccine makes people tend to want to leave the EU and there will be no interruption to supply. We'll end up with over supply.

Quite a muted reaction to EU green pass. Probably no confidence in it, it isn't actually available and there are indications EU will have a struggle to get it up and running by June. Given the design by committee approach of the EU, I doubt it will be ready before Christmas. Thankfully plenty of countries are going it alone and so individual destinations with their own arrangements will be available. I will expect the ESTA for the states to run alongside any covid vacc proof required. Most ESTAs will have run out by now so not too big an issue with the paperwork. Reading between the lines of recent government announcements about looking outward globally I will not be surprised to hear open travel announcements to the US and Canada ahead of Europe mainland. EU Islands will probably get own conditions from UK very soon. Time to go back into Jet2 perhaps.

I bet every single seat will be filled in every single flight the moment return to travel is allowed with vacc passports and minimal testing and NO self-isolation. The likes BA will be kicking themselves not having more business seats and I bet at least a fiver that Norwegian will have it's Dreamliners back in the skies quicker than an EU commission official can say, what can we poke the Brits with next!

Any vacc passport is meaningless until it is stated explicitly by UK that returning travellers will not need testing or isolation. Only then will the travel/holiday/ related stocks begin their big jump to level 4 but we may have to wait until April 12th for that information. But I note that EU announces a scheme for travel and the sector goes red on the stock exchange. Read between the lines. The best bit is a U turn on restricting countries to only accept EMA approved vaccines. Looks like the tail has definitely wagged the dog on this one. A rare moment of the commission backing down. Now, we await the government response - all eyes on the return leg of the journey with an EU green thingy....

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/17/european-commission-presents-plans-for-green-pass-for-freedom-of-travel-within-bloc

"What about the EMA-approved stipulation?

The vaccination certificates will be based on jabs approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). But, in a very important clarification, the Commission said that individual member states could decide whether or not they accept vaccines that EMA has not yet green-lighted. Countries like Hungary are already deploying shots from Sputnik V, from Russia, and Shinopharm from China.

"Where member states accept proof of vaccination to waive certain public health restrictions such as testing or quarantine, they would be required to accept, under the same conditions, vaccination certificates issued under the Digital Green Certificate system," the Commission said in a statement.

"This obligation would be limited to vaccines that have received EU-wide marketing authorisation, but member states can decide to accept other vaccines in addition."

The instrument will be valid in all EU countries and will be open for Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway as well as Switzerland. It will be issued to EU citizens and their family members, regardless of their nationality.

Additionally, non-EU nationals who reside in the bloc and visitors who have the right to travel to other member states will also be allowed to apply for the certificate."

Ermmm.... so basically any country can set up any scheme it wants for any vaccine it wants approved or not but if they don't do there own thing there is this EU Green thingy you can place your countries tourism industry future on. I wonder how many will only use the EU scheme?

You should listen to these broadcasts, still goin on - these people are utterly deluded. A master class in spin and deviation. This is real life!

There is an odd concept in business where it is cheaper to have loans and bonds than cash in the account, it is to do with amortisation, what the future worth of your cash will be given inflation. I can't be bothered to dig out the maths now, but a healthy company is one with a debt to cash ratio, can't remember what the ideal is but I remember doing the accounting maths as part of the soft skills portion of a MSc and the results are interesting. There are some very clever people juggling money around with large corporations, although if a numptie gets on the team then things can go pear shaped very fast.

"However, in another boost, the document acknowledges that individual countries will be able to strike deals with Britain should the EU-wide scheme falter, mirroring last year's 'travel corridors'."

EU can see the writing on the wall and so introduce as much flexibility as possible to get us over there handing over the hard currency. BUT! Will I jump on the first plane out there? When the EU offers the same attitude to trade under the existing deal, let alone moving forward, I'll think about it. I may jump on aeroplanes to join leave marches around Europe though, one of the unintended consequences of undoing lockdown.

Have spoken to friends in EU, there is a level of out right consternation and there are significant violent disturbances on the way. Things were already getting tetchy with lockdown with trouble at mill, the vacc issue and especially halting the program based on non-entity info has really boiled some brains over there.

Notice that Belgium, home of the commission in Brussels, is still administering the vaccine? All those Eurocrats and the commission - THEY are getting the vaccine. So a scare story is elevated to a EU wide political suspension leaving the low number of stocks free to be administered ..... yup, at the heart of the Euro machine. It is really that simple. Those in areas where descent and opposition to the very existence of the EU grows [now most of the continent] get left to die.

That war I mentioned a few weeks ago, the sort of thing that could derail the sp, thought I was mad did you? How much closer is it now??? Mmmm???

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/16/merkels-government-war-astrazeneca-disaster-eu-vaccine-chaos/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

By-line says it all. Vacc ban was political. There will be a very serious back lash on this one. It woon't be long before somebody calculates the number of people missed vaccination, of which x HAVE caught COVID, of which y number caught from a spreader, of which y then died. I would put the figure at about 200, that is 200 dead people just for some pathetic political stunt. What a shameful bunch of morons these people are. This MUST be the final straw for the bleak oppressed of Europe.

Jet2 statement about doubts over summer travel seems to have put a dampener on things.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/16/travel-news-portugal-turkey-holidays-abroad-quarantine-uk-restrictions/

Predicting June not may holiday restart.

Few pis seem to be clearing out on the news, my fundamental strategy leading up to April 12th unchanged at the moment but this is the sort of hint, hint that will indicate whether April 12th is a thumbs up go, go, go or a hold for a bit longer.

Question is whether to remain locked in or put liquidity to good use else where. All a bit volatile.

23rd March I have a free ride with RTN anyway with the share issue, just holding off to the last min to ensure no sudden dip - but looks like will be getting a free 10% there to add to the earlier gain. It's true, money attracts money!!

Yes, RR set an alert off. Take profits or stick. Stick I think, as mentioned in the other place EU countries are breaking free and going it alone opening up for travel/holidays so the prospect of cash flow looking good.

Sweepstake, how many weeks before IAG up sticks and locate to UK Canary Wharf?

Laughing? Errmm, there has been one way traffic in relocations since the start of the year. Will IAG risk have their fleet sequestrated by the EU for a new pan EU airline? Keep a 360 perspective of what could happen. The unexpected tends to happen - ask any lottery winner!

"There has also been a signal of localised swelling related to dermal fillers with the Pfizer/BioNTech shot, which has the brand name Comirnaty in Europe, and will be investigated separately by the PRAC."

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/eu-experts-call-for-allergic-reaction-safety-update-on-astrazeneca-covid-shot/

Headlines????? Oh no, Pfizer doesn't have the UK flag associated. This is black ops at work, enhance an issue and play the media for fools. With the heavily bigoted one-sided pro EU continental media, that isn't hard to do. In the good old days it was Soviet central that controlled the media messages. The EU has sought to have the ideology do the controlling and it has been a great success. But enough people are seeing through the narrative and there is a slow reaction with one inevitable outcome.

Jaws on the floor!

Shock!

Even the BBC on R4 raises the question whether EU is being political over Astra vacc suspension. There are just as many blot clot occurrences with the Pfizer vaccine. They existed before the vaccine yet that is simply being ignored as the EUs as they flap around trying to put some justification to it.

So as tens of thousands have died thanks to spreading covid due to forced wearing of face masks which was de facto an anti-Trump movement and entirely political, we now have a halt in a vaccination program which result in more dead people just for a political snipe at the UK. As long as this imbecile attitude continues then the pandemic will never end. The enforced mask wearing was a stunt of eye watering stupidity - but to stop the vaccine in a propaganda stunt worthy of North Korean status is just criminal. This is outright in ya face MURDER!

Gray, you call for a part of the business to be bankrupted whilst also saying you will buy in at a certain level. Great trading strategy! Buy in sub 100 as the CCD is being put to sleep. You must be a very wealthy person, I wonder what your 'hole' worth is......

.......should have added, locals working in the resort will be vacced to the eye balls and probably suffering daily tests too.

And I bet for Turkey the tourists will be in virtual holiday resort pens. But if your package holiday was always going to be about your hotel and beach front with nothing else in mind save a few local bars and restaurants, then locking in tourists to designated (large) areas is doable and I have expected it (cited Golden Sands before). One issue with that though - if they pen by country that means you have to live through two weeks of your fellow countrymen. Oh geeez no - count me out of that one ;)

Looks like one of those panic drops just ripe and ready for the likes of me to come along and throw five hundred quid on the roulette table. I note there are no steady state predictions for the retrace. I'll make one based on no knowledge of the business, a brief look at the 6 month chart and no research. Good old fashioned finger in the wind trading :)

I predict the sp will finish at 220 today and I will cash in at 235 this week.

except........ the EU vacc passport scheme to be unveiled this week, that should give some positive sentiment news. Look out especially for details relating to holiday islands.

I sleep well, gun under the pillow, lol

Here is a dodgy punt but might have a return, PFG Provident Financial. Bad news today, big drop but investigation out come a long way off and interim proposal if accepted will restore the sp from present level to a decent return. Otherwise will drop like a stone. Very, very high risk, but I have stuck £500 in as a pure gamble.

cw, I've been around the inner core, worked along side them. The cute face presented of lovable liberal empathetic carers couldn't be further from the truth. There is a deep seated paranoia inside the commission that the world is out to destroy them, for decades they have been at odds with the US to the point of literally in cold war territory. The commission knows it has no democratic legitimacy and so every action is deemed a propaganda act to divert inward attention. Failing to push the UK into the Euro, falling to have the UK [and many others] deliver the 'right' result in referendum, failing to keep the UK trapped under EU legal control post Brexit, failing to move the financial centrer from London to Europe (finally making the Euro hard currency) and now failing to deliver on the vaccine where the UK was supposed to have been dependant on the EU rather than the other way round - all this has generated a deep hatred, and I do mean hatred, of the UK.

And it is going to get a lot, lot worse. The EU will continue to undermine the UK at every possible opportunity. Only when the EU as a collective political institution breaks up - as all such collectives do in the end - will the UK be free of the continental irritation.

IAG is owned by a Spanish 'based' company but in commission terms it is a an EU company in the provincial state of Spain. And I will not be surprised to see the directive from the commission instructing airlines based within the EU to display the EU flag in a dominant position on the aircraft. There are people at the heart of the commission that would love to have the Jack erased from those tail fins at some point.

If you do not keep the perspective that there is an actual grouping within Europe dedicated to do the UK harm until it is fully absorbed within the EU [including getting ride of the pound] then you do not have the required 360 needed to make investment assessments. You wouldn't think twice about questioning some of the motivations behind US, China, India or OECD policies - the EU is and has been for a long time on that list of people to keep a beady eye on.