Member Info for big-blue

livepari, that's know as hindsight trading. If only that was an option we would all be rich by now.

20% will do me. I am about to spend my Jet2 gain before banking, breaking a golden rule. No choice as the bathroom cabinets chosen, 3 of, are in very low stock so have to go to 2 different Wickes to pick them up - now! So far my 2-20% gains are paying for the bathroom refit on the fly. So yes, 20% is absolutely fine. In fact it is bloody brilliant. And no heart attack panicking whether to by sell or what in the process.

"imagine selling out after a 20% rise that would of hurt"

No! Fundamentally NO. Anybody who reacts like that will fail 100%, forget about 75 or 71% it will be 100%.

No pi is ever going to achieve the perfect spread. My reaction to that would have been great celebration, 20% profit. Very nice return thank you, will bank that. Never ever get lost in the fantasy land of what could have been.

Still haven't seen any significant retrace or city profit trading. I am under no doubt it will happen at some point following the logic that pension funds and investment funds MUST generate a return for the members in the absence of divs. It has only been above 200 since start of March and it seems clear a lot of other pis pulled out expecting the very same. Dare I hazard a guess then that the iis profit take is set higher, perhaps aiming at 12th April news pivot point? I'm always hesitant when there is a strong positive climb for a share. It is invariably followed by a rapid decline - faster than the typical pi can manually react to and a decline that stops makes much more dramatic. As my Jet2 is now out of the red and back to profit, with RTN a few points behind my game is to look at the rate of increase of the array of recovering stocks. Very much spoilt for choice still - might now switch to carpet bagging strategy and have small amounts in lots of recovering stocks. Much more difficult to manage to avoid being caught out with a sudden drop but the overall gain is less impacted. As this market of recovery stocks becomes increasingly top heavy, the day trading requires more and more attention. Fine tune those alerts, you are going to need them in the run up to 12th April!!!!!

75% is quoted as 71% for CFD on adverts on my app. I couldn't find a figure for day trading. What has happened on a routine basis is people gambling their inheritance and pension pots and typically not making any profit. Only trade what you are prepared to loose as if in a casino.

£100. Better to take the money in the real world than lament on what could have been in a fantasy world.

BoJo has already announced we have to live with virus, infections will continue from now on. It is control over the level that is the next stage. The existing vaccines all have degrees of effectiveness against new variants. You're imagining a situation with each variation being a runaway infection with no damping in transmission rate. Also you are treating dealing with epidemics and pandemics purely on a binary level. It is a game of probabilities over time, derivatives to put it in calculus terms. One major source of transmission, face masks, will finally be lifted one day and the so called super spreaders will find it far more difficult to pass the virus around, let alone the reduction in transfer rate as a proportion of vaccinated people resist infection and the 'chain reaction' of spreading is tempered. It is not about eradicating the infection, it is about controlling the number requiring health treatment at any one time, the same with the impact of smoking, drinking, obesity and mental health. The current regime of testing and quarantine exists because there was no prospect of herd immunity pre vaccine. Not the potential is there however imperfect. As long as the rate of spread of variants and any health consequences are manageable, free travel and association will return as this is a demand of the global village. We do have to be careful not to run when we have only just got on our feet toddling though. The herd immunity is some way off.

You see Emerald, this method of preventing the likes of flue, a killer, has not been previously introduced because of the impracticality of it. With covid, not knowing how to respond to it and the impact of a larger body of the population health wise resulted in the lockdowns. Now the management of the disease is better understood, and there are effective treatments and a constant development on additional 'cures' and vaccinations, we can look towards moving on to a level of management with other virus infections like flu. That will include a free travel policy as pre covid. Any other level of restriction will completely kill off the travel industry as the overheads to keep aeroplanes in the sky requires a minimum number of passengers. A permanent implantation of isolation policy, which would have to be at both destinations since the virus doesn't know discriminate between outward or inward bound, would return the ability to travel back to the privileged few back in the 1950s. Societies do not step back in progress, they capitalise on what has been achieved so far. With mass vaccination and herd immunity the probability of having to have a covid test will be as likely as having to prove you are flu free. Just not practical.

Emerald, one fatal flaw in your scenario. Why would a variant ONLY occur abroad? A new variant may occur in any single virus, anywhere on the planet - and that includes the UK. The UK may be the source of the next evasive variant, or indeed the start of the benign variant [in which case overseas travel should be obligatory!].

Furthermore, the impact of current vaccines is to achieve a herd immunity where the spread of new variants is at a manageable scale with health services. It is already a given that from now covid joins the list of transmissible diseases that need to be constantly managed with regular vaccine variations. Self-isolation on return from certain regions has only been implemented before in the case of Ebola [as far as I am aware] and enforced isolation when Rabies is suspected. Rabies is still prevalent on the continent but we have not implemented self-isolation. With herd immunity, the need for self-isolation is not required, expect in circumstances with identifiable symptoms like would be required with Ebola or Rabies. There may be other 'notifiable' that already exist that require self-isolation as would have been the case precovid, I'm not expert in he field, but I'm sure there are others.

I never said that it implied there were 7 million worth outstanding. There might be some left on the books though that were not uncrossed in the auction, what shows in the dealing history is how many were matched in the auction. Given the regular trading I do not believe these were accumulated shares during the day, I think it was one dump.

At 16:30 the sp was mid 205.8, after the uncrossing the mid is 204.75. I understand that will be the opening price, the other after hours trade do not affect the sp.

I think a trade valued at 7million realistically can only be mm shares. We don't know how many they were left holding or whether the dump was in the morning or afternoon, but there was a dump of 7 million quids worth which will at least affect the trader reaction to sp. If you see 10x 7 million buys, how would you interpret that? Most, me included at the moment, do not see level 2. I'm not back in the game to that extent.
The sp can change from what it was at the close of trading so for pis if the sp was 100 at 16:30, but by 17:00 it is 105, then the trigger point for orders has changed and pis need to be aware and keep an eye on what is traded after the 'theoretical' market close. I never use stops, orders or the like and trade manually because of being caught like that.

Inferno, my understanding of such a trade is that is was placed with the mm during trading, the mm couldn't find a match and therefore passed off chunks of it during trading. If they are unable to off load the sell then in order to keep the market working the mm buys the trade at a reduced price to the seller set by the mm and then sell it themselves at the market rate to avoid allowing a sudden distortion in the market. Also, the market did not know of a large dump at the time. Traders will now see it and therefore may follow suite to get ahead of a drop. The sp was not impacted in one go during the day with such a large trade as it was off loaded throughout. The privilege of the mm is in buying the share to regulate the market against sharp movements they can the set the market rate and keep the difference. They are not obliged to disclose the price they paid. Being a sell it means the market price is depressed but the true sp if the mm hadn't intervened would be much lower - and normally when mm intervention is revealed the sp moves in the same direction initially.

Well that is my understanding of how the mm regulate very large trades entering the market, they can set the price to cover themselves and so the sp on this occasion I will expect to be lower as the real effect of what the mm actually paid with millions of shares released being in supply feeds through. Oversupply - price drops.

As for an opening price tomorrow, well just had a look for trades posted after market close,
05-Mar-21 16:35:07 203.90 3,618,095 Sell* 204.70 204.80 7m UT
And can't see anything to counter balance that. I am expecting a mark down in the morning as a continuation of the Friday afternoon trend.

Beware the jingoistic BBC stories..........

Well, media and broadcasting media in general. It has been a fun game for the broadcasters to have to adjust and as usual try and lead and coerce the 'new' wave of working, over video link. You would think there had never been a video conference pre covid the way some of the presenters go on. And of course, now they are 'in to it' this is the new norm. The BBC says it is the new norm because it thinks it has a degree of lead and influence over it. Therefore, by default, all business travel will cease, all personal contact will cease, all travel will cease and Zoooooom will live forever.

Pa! Video conferencing has been around for decades, it pre dates the world wide web. It does! I sat in on some at a junior level as satellite time drastically reduced in cost. Throughout all the tech advances, mobile phones, www, desktop video calling, social media and email, there has been one consistent factor. Person to person face to face has continued and indeed actually become more important. Look at the never ending growth in company activity days. Team building.

Now, the post lockdown economics will result in some degree of wfh staying, but it was on the increase for certain roles anyway. And the experience was also to ensure there were still regular office visits. So a return to business travel, is going to happen. The expense accounts might get trimmed a little to begin with, not so many business class rewards for middle management, for a while, but trying to stuff an executive familiar with business class into an isle seat with the chickens and goats???? The 'perk' will be be back faster than you can say "if she takes the Lloyds account with him, we loose 20% of our business - put her in business for Montreal next week." I will even predict, the wfh has had more of a negative impact, more of a reminder about the need to congregate as the social animal we are, and that there will eventually be MORE travel as the value of being in company will stick with us for a few generations to come and planet returns to becoming an ever smaller place as it was pre covid. I think Norwegian made a critical error in judgement and there will be a significant capacity issue towards the end of THIS year and the 'left turn' seats maybe selling for higher prices pre covid due to supply and demand.

Here endith the lesson. Please stand to sing Psalm number 384, "And the Lord gave us wings to fly".................

Also, there is the volume to keep an eye on. As smash and grab pis think they have milked as much as they can, the herd moves on to the next target (Boohoo was mentioned earlier and with the results expected in 6 weeks or so there are potential trading opps there). As volume drops, the sp will drop too, it is just the nature of the market. With lower pi volume, the fundamentals become more of an influence with iis making trades in the millions at a time. There is also the unique attribute to the current market, spoilt for choice for recovery stocks. This may dilute the usual smash and grab herd so do be wary about past performance precovid. Bagging a winner on the market has always had a degree of luck to it, I think that is even now more the case. Lower volume with IAG will result in slower swings and reduce the amplitude of the peaks and troughs. Of course, you can always switch tactic and increase the size of your trading, or pull out altogether and count your profits for the remainder of lockdown.

I'm pretty sure it will be 300p+ year end. As I am playing with money again in the William Hill sp lottery, I don't have the patience to sit on it and just wait. This day trading is just too much fun, this time doing it sober lolololol. I'm not allowed to take the risks as before, betting the lot on one share on one day despite the eye watering early retirement gains. But I am slowly covering the costs of the bathroom refit so my online privileges haven't been curtailed - not yet! Anyway, I'm probably locked in for some time with other shares so can not release funds to take advantage of any pull back on IAG. So for the moment it can drop back to 150p or go straight to 300p - I'm currently out [but doing sums in the background!].

Inferno, this is where the golden rule about not falling in love with the share comes from. I would be surprised if the majority of pis buying in during the rise would have any knowledge, insight or opinion on the data points you mention. Smash and grabbers perceive a momentum in the rate of change of a sp, and buy and sell on that feeling. The more greedy ones get caught out and often end up on the wrong side of the rise or fall, but most take a prudent view and make a small but consistent mark-up form stock to stock. Let's be honest, there are many pis that know the ticker name and frankly that is it! They don't even know the company name let alone the industry or key variables. I perceive a 'topping' out and will not be surprised to see a further pull back. How fast and to what depth is the question. However, since this is not a sp based on real world fundamentals at the moment, it might catapult off in the other direction [I have a low confidence interval for that though].

Ryanair confident to run adds £19.99 seats holiday bookings. That is actually quite expensive for Ryanair, and I bet the return leg is double. For my analysis, without confidence the return leg will be without isolation and testing, then travel remains problematic.

"and shhhh nights with certain colleagues."

Oh no I didn't forget ;0

Johnbri4, I suspect there will be many who will have found a new way to communicate. But then there are also those who can not wait to get away from the boredom and isolation of wfh. Not forgetting of course the dinning out on the expense account, all those international golf courses, the weather and shhhh nights with certain colleagues. It might just be the case that for every regular precovid passenger lost, 1.5 new ones emerge! The moment colleague X learns that colleague Y and Z had lunch in NY whilst he was in the spare room in Shropshire and does not therefore know about the 18th reshuffle, there will be a lot of return to person to person meetings. What will really knacker that sort of travel will be the increasingly militant environmental lobby taxing at lot of people out of the sky. I wouldn't hold airline stocks into a five year pension plan.