Member Info for big-blue

The big critical change will be the removal of the PCR test. I see it as a major block to full open travel, and because of that the big mega gains originally estimated in the sp are being played out as small incremental profits. You'll know when this is going to happen when the manufacturers sp nose dive.

This will all be about rumour and counter rumour for the next couple of weeks. Misinterpreted press releases will be the big day trading opportunities. There is a potential to make a very decent wedge here up to formal announcements.

..... and the slide on Easy is larger as I guessed because the green list was so small - - cannot understand why the islands in the Atlantic and along the med were not included, not even Malta. I am now more convinced that the list was so small because the border force will not be able to handle the numbers. Certainly the EU commission has put a timetable for opening up the mainland set back into June and UK is certainly following that. Opening up the US is influenced a lot with what the Americans are going to do. And our border facilities don't sound prepared. So scan the news on improvements and extra recruiting at the border to give an indication that at least the holiday islands will be added to the green list for Easy Jet shares. US holiday hot spot press releases for when the US goes green.

From the point of view of some day trading smash and grab, those couple of weeks are mega on a policy change this big!

I bailed Easy straight away, happy with yet another compounded profit. Question now, how far will IAG slide before strong rumour on US turn it around? When is it likely Spain and Greece will be opened up for another quick smash and grab with Easy Jet whilst waiting for US travel news? Time to get the wall cart out and plan the next move in world domination from the wicker chair - after a bacon butty of course!!

sundez.... there were a number of G7 meetings between UK and USA just before the travel list and a poster on here flagged up as a reliable source was mentioning something about coordinated announcements based on press conference times. Certainly is the UK put the USA green but the US didn't open borders at the same time, then that would be a bit awkward. I did say myself that my focus would not be on anything the UK says, but on what the American G7 delegates say as they were most prone to give away what the decision would be. On that, I decided the US would be amber, and so it is. Going forward, again I am will only be interested in what is being said in America, especially announcements from Disney on being ready to welcome British holiday makers from xyz date. That sort of news release is where we will most likely hear that travel to the US is to open up.

So, plan A. Cash in on opening sharp peak in Easy Jet. Ignore IAG as not holding at the moment.

Smirk at all the troll messages telling me what a mistake I made as IAG ticks up a few points as the morning opens up.

Continue smirking as IAG drops passing the opening price. Note trolls go silent.

Judge the bottom for IAG since the US was not on the green list throughout the day, or the day after....

Eventually, when US on green list, sell IAG for utter shed loads of wonga profit. Smirk at trolls.

OK heardy, the argument to allow the virus to pass through the population unrestricted was not an option due to the speed of transmission, ease of transmission and numbers with serious and life ending symptoms. We would have been dealing with a society issue on a par with the scenes we see [used to see?] with major famines world wide. Also, as seen in the real world, many mutations did not weaken the virus but produced stronger more virilant strains so in this case your thesis has already been answered. With a bit of luck and herd immunity future variants may be more benign but they could also go the other direction. From an investment point of view, this is probably the biggest threat to airline stocks in the future. Countries being placed into border lockdown when new strong variants occur to reduce the rate of spread in a vaccinated population to manageable levels.

Lockdowns are over for vaccinated populations. The point of lockdowns was to protect health systems from being overwhelmed. Italy was the first indicator. Treatments are better understood, death rates are vastly down and with a degree of herd immunity, even where variants are concerned, boost jabs and a better public awareness to self-isolate (what used to be staying off work sick) whatever you might have, the health service will not be overwhelmed. Covid will exist as flu and the cold but as a manageable risk in society.

I think bigsoc.. that the 400p is post placing adjustment. Otherwise I would agree that media pundits tend to write for a target market and can leave a lot of variables out.

"Hold On.
The news is out.
We are all saved.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-britain-free-coronavirus-055300848.html"

Yeahhhhhhhhhh.......... we're all gettin' laid!!!!!!!!

As far as reducing aid is concerned, it was a lot higher than most countries to begin with. And why are we sending money to a country that can afford a space program with it's own launch vehicles but not a health service? Britain doesn't have such luxuries and I wish we did. I would argue ALL aid is stopped globally to India past this immediate crisis and force them to use some of the wealth they have spare for space rockets on their basic health infrastructure. When that is sorted out, then add to the countries' technology portfolio. If the UK didn't spend the money it does on the NHS, we would on the moon, on mars and looking beyond by now. I am a strong believer in helping out on the principle with position comes responsibility but I would rather our aid was in tangibles rather than cash which is often used for other purposes and stolen by individuals.

Did they answer your question Lee, lol.

If they are selling seats then at those prices and filling the planes, then great. Long may that continue. As an indicator as what to expect when US and the islands are added it looks very good. Might help reduce any dip next week. I found on the Milan routes, the Ryanair and Easy Jet seats had more leg room than the BA [light blue touch paper and stand well back]. The low costs introduced new 'thin' seats [but don't kneel on them lol] and they transform the personal space.

I was having a look on skyscanner.net at various destinations, disappointed Malta not on the list, BA flights were not what I would call competitive, and Easy Jet has already announced 80,000 extra seats to the available green list places. BA might make a bit of an error here and price itself out of the market. Need to remember, costs of test have to be added to the overall costs of the journey so BA needs to be very careful. All the other low cost carriers will be moving in to fill seats. I expected all airlines to fill every available seat for months to come, to early next year, easily. But not at those prices BA!

Yes, it is all a bit of a lottery. Play more lottery tickets to win the jackpot and then you won't have to worry about costs and cancellations and will be able to hire a private jet at your convenience.

Party central back on the map then, if you've got the money then Iceland is a great place for a bit of wild partying in the summer.

What will the sp by Monday? Going on my thesis that the important variable for iis was whether US would be green or not, I would say a possible brief blue as some small pis rate the travel list as a positive for IAG in some parallel universe, then large pis and iis will look to minimise losses. Yet another long siting on hands for yet another few weeks/months. The rate of return since January is getting very dilute so I will say as Monday pans out there will be a persistent dip. How low, depends how much patience the market has and what are the probabilities that USA will be on the next green list. That will be the big question for IAG over the next 3 weeks. That may cause some wild oscillations in the share price, swinging 10% each way maybe based on rumour and dodgy reporting. The situation is set to allow a fair degree of bogus news undercover of the volatility allowing organised trading. Boiler rooms will be doing over-time for the next three weeks.

Note they re-hashed the opera music, but not sure about the half comedic content.

cw1966, how old were you?

Disappointed Tatooine wasn't on the list too. I haven't see my droid for more than a year now.

If you can guess how long this piece of string is that I am holding, then you have your answer. :)