POLY end game24 Aug 2022 09:18
"Putin has lost his gas war. Today’s crazy prices are caused by a global scramble to lock up supplies of LNG from Qatar, the US, and Australia before winter. East Asia and Europe are in a bidding war. Once the panic subsides, gas prices will fall, and perhaps faster than almost anybody imagines today.
German storage is 80%, ahead of seasonal norms, and ahead of target. Germany has cut gas demand by 14%. Its industry is learning to live with a lot less of it. Europe is a mixed bag but unless there is a polar vortex, it will muddle through this winter.
The world does not need Putin’s gas as much as we all thought, and he presumed. With a nip in Japan and Korea, a tuck in China and India, and three notches of the belt in Europe, the gas market is coming back into fundamental balance. Even if he cuts off all flows in October to try to force a settlement on his terms, it will not change much. The worst is already ‘in the price’.
Besides, Vladimir has taught us not to waste gas, nor to rely so heavily on weaponised hydrocarbons. He has shot his golden goose."
There is no ace card so those wishing Europe and the west will be brought to their knees and roll over at Putin's command leading to some magic restoration in POLY fortunes as if nothing happened and the business stayes as one re seriously deluded.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300669468/after-six-months-of-war-in-ukraine-heres-what-could-come-next