RE: Putin turns off the gas3 Sep 2022 10:31
"This adds pressure for Ceasefire and eventual peace"
This is the game plan, except those to be held to ransom have moved fast to mitigate, even coal power is being put back online, indeed Norway announced today its coal mine supplying steel smelting is to continue operation for an additional couple of years instead of being closed this year.
Putin thought he had an energy supply trump card. He has tried playing with a significant reduction in supply to date. No effect, only more western weapons being supplied to Ukraine. So the last throw of the dice, all cards now shown, the last call - full suspension of supply. But as demonstrated so far, there will be no impact on the policy supporting Ukraine. It is a last act of desperation by Putin and now Europe and especially Germany have faced their huge energy policy failure, huge moves ave been made already to cutout Russia all together permanently and net zero has been hugely impacted with real world acknowledgment now of the utter folly of that policy. Putin as actually done the west, and indeed the world, a huge favour exposing the crazy policy's shortcomings.
There is no energy trump card for Putin. There will be no change in the west's policy to Ukraine. More nato weapons, and now MiGs, will be sent to Ukraine instead. Putin's last play is not a card in the game, it is the gun smuggled into the game, the nukes. Within a couple of weeks the nuclear threat will b very significantly raised as he desperately tries to hold on the initiative. But nato, China, India and ****stan (and Israel to some extent) have already had time to acclimatise to the likely use of a tactical weapon being used. I will guarantee NO country, not even N. Korea, will support the actual use and instead Russia will undergo invasion from all sides and be under full occupation for ageneration.
This is now the end game, the last cards played, Russia has lost the hand and the game. The only detail now is ho the capitulation will pan out. Least loss full withdrawal or occupation in response to the use of nukes.