Member Info for big-blue

Putin is getting it from all sides, full retreat must be on the cards soon. Ukraine won't be negotiating any settlement, why would they? Reward the aggressor? Stop despite getting the upper hand in weapons day by day? Putin's folly is over and he has clearly had pressure put on him for a while in private to give it up, now it is coming out in public remarks from India and China. All we need is one general to call it off and the rest will follow suite.

Shall I open a book on how Putin will vacate the Kremlin? On foot or in a body bag?

Expected a much better jump based on Xi's public warning to Putin over KZ. I don't think I over estimated how significant the warning was, so I can only imagine the market is both restricted in volume and the Russian half of the company is still anchoring the sp. Too much exposure to toxic Russian assets and no declared plan to separate from them.

I thought he was MassiveRay

It's being a bit stubborn, restricted trading perhaps holding things back more than I anticipated.

By mid Oct I expect a general ceasefire and full withdrawal to the Russian border to be underway, except Crimea. I expect lots of issues with Donbas being littered with mines and plenty of low level breaks in the ceasefire as the original separatists put up meaningless resistance as Ukrainian forces take over the Donbas as Russians leave. The resistance will be gone within months as it transpires the Ukrainians are the ones welcomed as liberators with open arms and flowers.

The Crimea however may turn into a serious conflict again as Russia has to fall back on the Crimea bridge having lost its land corridor, the bridge will be blown up and the Russians will offer significant resistance as Ukraine tries to take it back. Major Black Sea confrontations as Russia tries to supply fighting in Crimea by sea.

All courtesy of my crystal ball.

Note CT, Ukrainian forces will have access to Gortex winter kit from the west which is far superior to any sheep wool undies the Russian's have. A full nato polar combat suit is rather comfortable and suitable for bivouacking in a snow cave. Nato and others have a lot of opportunity to test cold weather kit but I suspect they will only get to test it in peace keeping format as the war I think will be finished by mid-October or sooner. Xi will be giving clearance to Putin's proposed exit strategy, may be today, and the retreat will be put into action along some bull lines of humanitarian assistance, or 'that as just a warning' or as a distraction from Putin's state funeral.

Put my neck on the block here,

Based on Xi comments re Kaz,

.... will see 20% rise for POLY at some point during the day despite restricted trading. Close price? difficult to say but I expect the importance of the KAZ comments from Xi to have a significant positive impact on sp today.

Also, this may encourage a RNS ahead of results from the company due to the company's interests in KAZ. Makes the split many times more secure.

Wow! That is pretty unequivocal. That makes investment in KZ very reliable te Russian trouble.

This doubles, triples even quadruples the case for splitting POLY.

I'll happily upgrade my October cash in expectations with POLY split, free LSE trading into the low 500s now.

That direct statement is literally gold dust.

Told you, Xi is calling the shots and Putin is tge lap dog doing his masters bidding now. China came out completely on top of the new best budds arrangement.

Sit boo boo, sit.

How will POLY get nothing when Russia is defeated? How is Putin going to sequestrate KZ assets? Knowing what we know now about the Russian army, KZ will just laugh back at any threats of non-compliance - along with all the other 'STANS. And since the board is well advanced with the split plans, they will move faster than the Kremlin. And you suppose Putin will be in office for how long after the humiliating defeat? POLY MOEX may lose out if they are nationalised, but that is the risk of investing. Some you lose. But it sounds like from some on here they have far too many eggs in the one basket. Rule number one broken along with the eggs...

"In televised opening remarks at the bilateral meeting, Putin told Xi: "We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis. We understand your questions and concern about this. During today's meeting, we will of course explain our position.""

Note of course, Xi will have briefings from a range of sources so Putin will find it very hard to spin a yarn. Could Putin trying to defend the indefensible lead to a rapid countdown to end the war on Xi's orders?

Whilst that would be fantastic for the people on Ukraine with an immediate cessation and withdrawal of Russian troops, investors in anything involving Russia should not jump to the conclusion everything will suddenly go back to normal in the markets. Sanctions maybe imposed for years as Russia resists paying reparations for Ukraine for example. Anything Russian is extremely toxic and tainted now. The trust factor. The currency issue. The potential for civil breakdown and, most likely, civil war. And now surrounding states know just how incompetent and useless Russian armed forces are, how many old scores are about to be settled with multiple new wars launched against Russia. And then there will be the war crimes and 'guilt by association' - toxic indeed.

Hold on to your Russian assets during so much potential turbulence? The sooner the split the better, get out and let POLY LSE trade freely without the dark cloud of Russia hanging over it.

Please do not address me on this bb. It is not for you to judge the content of my posts. I am going to filter you to avoid your passive aggressive bullying and stalking. The sooner your disruptive abuse of the facility is permanently removed, the better. Others should raise their concerns with the site's administrators as they see fit. There is a 'contact us' link at the bottom of the page.

The volume is low.
The sp slightly increased.
Some results will be posted soon.
That's about it

lol, sp decided to u turn as I had concluded the post of the day

The volume is low.
The sp slightly depressed.
Some results will be posted soon.
That's about it

Now, if it was the case that there were language barriers, significant cultural differences, totally different religions, countries separated by thousands of miles and an ocean and Ukraine being a closed autocratic media control system - well maybe you could make arguments about being mislead something along the lines of the Iraqi opposition stringing Washington DC along a bit. But before bombing the crap out of a country, wouldn't you at least send in some WMD style Nazi hunters, or run it through the UN a few times with open discussion to get feedback from surrounding states?

I think the idea that even loyal Russians will buy the line that it was poor intelligence and misleading advice that nobody was able to checkout is stretching it a bit.

Let's ask all the Russian trolls on here. Do you buy this misleading advice idea?

I think you will find he has a pink diplomatic passport, he can go almost anywhere.

Some may not know, especially the Russian trolls. Wonder if Zelensky will turn up in London???????????????

19th Sept declared a bank holiday.

“We must make sure that the slogan ‘We can repeat’ causes panic attacks and bad memories among Russians, that they answer only ‘Never again!’ to it,” Yermak said.

“For this, we need a military power strong enough to discourage the Russians’ desire for revenge. And capable of causing irreparable damage to the aggressor if this desire turns out to be irresistible. Security guarantees are aimed at helping us create such power.”

The full set of recommendations is available on the president’s official website.

In turn, Zelenskyy, on his Facebook page, thanked the Yermak-Rasmussen International Working Group for drafting this package of recommendations, saying it is necessary that the Group continues its work and completes the project.

err ya?

https://english.nv.ua/nation/president-s-office-presents-recommendations-on-security-guarantees-for-ukraine-50269781.html

I thin you will find if you actually read the content of the decree, you will find it is nothing like your post and nothing to do with Ukraine looking for negotiated settlement. Quite the opposite!

"The recommendations provide for the following:

The strongest security guarantee for Ukraine lies in its capacity to defend itself against an aggressor under the UN Charter’s Article 51.To do so, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defensive force capable of withstanding Russia’s armed forces and paramilitaries;
This requires a multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine’s defence industrial base, scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags;
The security guarantees should be affirmative and clearly formulated; they lay out a range of commitments made by a group of guarantors, together with Ukraine. They need to be legally and politically binding based on bilateral agreements but brought together under a joint strategic partnership document – called the Kyiv Security Compact;
The package of guarantees includes preventive measures of a military, financial, infrastructural, technical, and information nature to prevent new aggression, as well as measures to be taken immediately in the event of a new encroachment on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In addition, the structure of the Kyiv Security Compact includes a full-fledged sanctions package against the aggressor state, and may also include additional components, such as agreements on providing Ukraine with modern air defense or anti-missile systems, regional agreements on security in the Black Sea, etc.;
The Compact will bring a core group of allied countries together with Ukraine, which may include the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, and Central European countries;
The security guarantees are not a replacement for Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO. This aspiration is safeguarded in the Ukrainian constitution and is a sovereign decision for Ukraine. Ukraine is also on the path to EU membership. As an EU member, Ukraine will benefit from the EU’s own mutual defence clause. Both NATO and EU membership will bolster Ukraine’s security in the long-term. The guarantees outlined today in no way undermine these aims, but will ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself under any circumstance.

Just keep your fingers crossed FSB communicate across districts when the game is up and the people are out on the streets. We don't want any massacres.

" People seem to love an argument."

Oh no they don't!