Member Info for Bhants

Afternoon all, so the intra-day rollercoaster continues. Whizzed up to £12.52 very soon after opening here, then a slow drift back to previous close just before lunch, a climb back to nearly £12.30 and then a “mini tank” back down to £12.15.

Is there any other share as volatile as this?

B

BTW NatWest are at £2.15 having gone as low as £2.11. It was over £2.20 a couple of days ago.

Thanks, Bot (managed to get that right, at least).

I used to work in Life Insurance.

B

Bit? I meant Bot - so sorry!

K, I’ll have a look. As you say might be worth a punt, although for me i5 would be only a ver6 small one. Maybe more of a little dribble? Appropriate after my dentist visit this morning.

B

Bit,

Thanks for your input and thoughts. No need to apologise. I have, eventually, realised that emotionless investing is an impossibility for me. So, like you say I must try and make decisions despite what I might “feel”. Never trust feelings……..

I still think both CCL and NWG have long term good prospects. If I am completely honest, what I would like to see is enough profit overall to enable me to sell up everything, except the minimum in CCL for on board spend on cruises, and buy a joint life, second death annuity with RPI increases ( my holdings are in a SIPP). For that, I need CCL to get to £25/30 and NatWest to, say, £3+.

So, a year, maybe two, to wait. How much ranting can I look forward to doing in the period? Probably loads!

Best,

B

PS I bank with one and cruise with the other but have I got them the right way round?

B

For every 10p this moves up, NatWest drops 1p. I know there’s no correlation but guess what relative proportions of each I hold? Got it in one.

Anyone know what is currently going on at NatWest? I’m just waiting for the dividend announcement.

B

And it managed another small drift up at the end.

B

Fordy, we just never know, do we? In the end, the only advice you can take responsibly is your own but I’d be a bit surprised if the SP sank that far. The results numbers were too good.

But…….

B

Sun,

TBH I do not have the foggiest idea. And from the way the SP behaves, it’s probably only the manipulators who do. Hopefully, in the end (when ever that is) the SP will reflect the true and proper value of the company.

B

Hi Bot and all,

And still it falls, down to £11.67 just now. Cannot find any comment, let alone explanation for this - now way below where it was before the latest results.

Not a great start to the New Year.

B

WTF is this drop all about?

B

Anyone else use HL? I thought their own fees were not too bad, capped at £200 p.a. investments (nil for cash held) plus a flat transaction fee £11.95. Sinc3vi don’t do buying and selling much, it suits me.

B

That’s my investment platform! Up to now, they have been pretty negative about CCL and they posted an article the other day by a Deutsche Bank guy which focused, AGAIN, on the negative stuff like the debt pile and increasing(!!NOT!!) interest costs. So, it was a bit of a surprise to see CCL “tipped”.

Anyway, I am in for the long term! We have two cruises booked on Arcadia - one in July (round Britain) this year and one in May (eastern med) next year.

I hope you find what you’re looking for!

B

Happy New Year everyone from one behind the curve as usual!

Hi Angus, difficult to chose between chalk and cheese. Arcadia is homely and transport from one port to another. Iona is more a destination in itself with ports as an extra, with families. Arcadia is adults only.

Probably favour Arcadia as we pamper ourselves and take a suite near midships. Only suites on Iona are at bow or stern.

Pays yer money and takes yer choice, I guess. Hope that helps a bit!

B

Well, quite a (bit of a) week!

HNY to all who post here.

B

Thanks Scalp, very helpful.

Sun, the whole debt business can be very confusing - even very negative - but they t did pay down more in the last 12 months than expected and ended with a larger cash pile plus they do have a plan which projects that in three years’ time CCL will be back to “investment grade status” I h means that the debt must be reduced to a quite low level (haven’t researched how little) plus the dividend must’ve been restored so, personally, I think the long-term prospects are good, even with canal closures/restrictions and other negatives around the world. The one thing they should try to do is really crack down on emissions.

B

Several things raise an eyebrow in these analyses from DB and Fool.

Just a couple: Fool overstate the debt amount and do not mention it is decreasing and the plan in place to pay it down.

Fool also mention the “Treasury Curve” - do they not realise that the UK represents less than ONE TENTH of Carnival’s business, however you care to measure it? In fact it is nearer to 1/12.

DB’s Woronka also states demand is based on “an OPINION” that it MAY (capitals mine) have peaked. That is barely more than pure speculation.

Still, glad no one takes any notice of me. You would be losing a fortune. What should I do with NatWest. I still think it must come good (to around £3.25 ish in 2024).😊

HNY all.

B

Hello all,

This is a very typical pattern for CCL after results are announced, although it does seem a bit more harsh - maybe that’s because the price was higher to begin with. The price on here is delayed 15 minutes and the actual price as I write is £12.88 - a 5.6% drop. Totally unwarranted but not unexpected. It always interests me that the Carnival Senior Management Team say they have no interest in the share price - except in relation to their personal holdings! - because when I had a proper job, our CEO used to say to us “that’s your appraisal, right there - the stock price”. Now, I may be completely wrong (as usual) but I thought that a company was run for the benefit of its owners, i.e. the shareholders, that is ME (amongst one or two others) so, what the heck do they mean? For whose benefit ARE they running the show?

Now, where did I leave that gin……

Have a very lovely, happy and profitable New Year, everyone.

B

Morning all,

This is a very familiar pattern for CCL following results. I am inclined to agree with Sund that we should see a further rise between Christmas and New Year. The SP has certainly lost some of the early gains but seem to be slowly clawing some back.

The total unpredictable element, which seems to affect CCL more than any other share, is sentiment. Based on the numbers alone, it should have risen substantially. Still, I am not a day-trader or interested in short term fluctuations but the longer term and I firmly believe (hope?) that whilst we may not see the pre-covid heights, we shall get to £30+ over the next couple of years.

Have a really blessed Christmas and a HNY, everyone.

B

Mine is £7.95……..

B