Member Info for Benhowell459

Interesting re BCM. You might think 38m USD wasn't much but there was 25m USD in staged payments over 2 years.

PLUS gold was maybe half the price it is now.

Interesting.

*Taking his projections with a pinch of salt will though...

Good point Andrew. It works both ways, which some won't appreciate. Constant positivity on the board does no one any favours. Realistic analysis taking Colin's forward projections will though.

I'm one who bought (more) at 6.1p way back in the day.

Why?

Possibly because he said he'd tell AA to stick it if they offered 10p. On record.

But I'm also someone who topped up at 0.64p.

So someone who believes the project but doesn't trust the cr** that CB sometimes comes out with.

He's not the Messiah, he's a.....

Meant to comment on that particular quote.

Work continues....

Yeh sure.

You must have gullible written on your forehead JD.

"Work continues to define the potential for a future open pit mining operation, as well as assess the wider licence area for concentrations of additional mineralisation."

It's not closed minded learning from past failures.

I bet you think the copper dump material is still getting transported for processing. They've just got lost! Colin said they would get processed!

Any thoughts on Eureka? Am I allowed to write that one off?

What about Kalengwa?

When was the last Kakuyu update zap? If Colin doesn't mention a project anymore it means it's on the scrap heap. You should know this. Or are you still expecting Kalengwa and Eureka to fill the coffees too???

Thanks both. Interesting point Jam re production will tell us the grades.

Agree re Roasties - they always go for best case scenario so need a large sprinkle of salt.

Looking good here, but just need to stick to timelines.

Conclusions

I also ran the SK modelling but won't post it here. It looks a good money earner but the 35% share we have of the JV reduces the impact here somewhat.

My position

Amghas has huge potential to shift the sp here. But we need production up and running and confirmed figures before we get much momentum. Only so main AIM shareholders invest on potential.

We need a concrete MRE or some figures to understand the scale of the resource. Currently we're going off of historic percentages and CB's messages to the Roasties - these veins go for miles etc. We've been here before. We need the numbers. So MRE + Production figures to shift the needle here.

My view is we could get to 2p by end of 2026 with updates on drilling or initial income. I would ignore the best case for now as we have no (accurate) understanding of the scale here.

The middle case scenario (60-75m GBP) market cap is possibly something to aim for by end of 2027.

Others will be much more positive. Some will be even more cautious.

Hope everyone enjoying the weekend!

Post 2: impact on the market cap

What This Means vs Xtract’s Current £15m Market Cap

With the updated $22k/t antimony price:

Cautious case ≈ current market cap

Middle case ≈ 3× market cap

Best case ≈ 9× market cap

And this is Amghas alone, not including:Manica cashflow

Other Moroccan licences

Bushranger optionality

Any future antimony price increases (Sb is a critical mineral)

Cautious Case — £25m to £35m

Why: Amghas delivers only low‑grade/low‑recovery output

Profit ~£2.1m/year

Market applies a 5× EBITDA multiple

Manica continues steady but not growing

Result:£10.5m (Amghas) + £15m (current Manica value) ≈ £25m

Market may stretch to £30–35m if sentiment improves.

Interpretation: A mild uplift from today — the market cap roughly doubles.

Middle Case — £55m to £75m

Why: Amghas performs at realistic mid‑range

Profit ~£10m/year

Market applies 5× EBITDA

Manica still contributes steady cashflow

Morocco seen as a strategic antimony jurisdiction

Result: £48m (Amghas) + £15m (Manica) ≈ £63m

Interpretation:A 4×–5× increase from today’s £15m market cap. This is the most realistic scenario based on typical grades and recoveries.

Best Case — £150m to £200m

Why:High grade (4–5% Sb)High recovery (90%)Profit ~£27m/year

Market applies 5–6× EBITDA because antimony is a critical mineral

Morocco becomes a recognised antimony hub

Xtract secures long‑term offtake at premium pricing

Result:£133m (Amghas) + £15m (Manica) ≈ £148m

Market could easily stretch to £180–200m if:

Sb price rises further

Xtract expands Moroccan resources

Bushranger optionality re‑enters the narrative

Interpretation:A 10×–13× increase from today’s £15m market cap

I had a bit of fun with co pilot yesterday. I haven't checked any of the figures but I thought it was interesting so worth sharing. This is only to trigger discussion!

All of the below uses 22k USD for antimony and production up and running by the end of 2026 (CB has stated this is as conservative and I'm VERY conservative when it comes to Xtr related timelines).

Interestingly I ran scenarios for both Amghas and Silverking and Amghas looks (according to current figures) to have way more potential to move the sp than SK. Time may change that but that's my current position.

The main caveat here is we don't actually have a resource at Amghas. We have no idea how much is there. So it could be enough for 5 years production, or it might go down to 1% antimony after 9 months of production. We just don't know for sure. Therefore publishing an MRE would provide much greater certainty.

Post 1 of 2. Scenario modelling:

Cautious Case (Low Grade, Low Recovery)

Assumptions

Grade: 1%

Recovery: 70%

Sb price: $22,000/t

Margin: 25%

Calculations

Sb contained:

70,000 × 1% = 700 t

Recovered:

700 × 70% = 490 t

Revenue: 490 × $22,000 = $10.78m

Operating profit:

$10.78m × 25% =$2.70m Valuation (5× EBITDA)≈ $13.5m (≈ £10.5m)

Middle Case (Realistic Range)

Assumptions

Grade: 2.5%

Recovery: 80%

Sb price: $22,000/t

Margin: 40%

Calculations

Sb contained:

70,000 × 2.5% = 1,750 t

Recovered:

1,750 × 80% = 1,400 t

Revenue:

1,400 × $22,000 = $30.8m

Operating profit:

$30.8m × 40% = $12.32m

Valuation (5× EBITDA)≈ $61.6m (≈ £48m)

Best Case (High Grade + High Recovery)

Assumptions

Grade: 4.5%Recovery: 90%Sb price: $22,000/t

Margin: 55%

Calculations

Sb contained:

70,000 × 4.5% = 3,150 t

Recovered:

3,150 × 90% = 2,835 t

Revenue:

2,835 × $22,000 = $62.37m

Operating profit:

$62.37m × 55% = $34.30m

Valuation (5× EBITDA)≈ $171m (≈ £133m)

Everything boils down to this:

"If management can deliver positive toxicology results."

Everything else is unimportant.

Could go either way. You go with your gut feeling and place your bets. In or out. Last time didn't go well. My feeling is they've rectified the problems. But nobody really knows.

As one poster pointed out last time we tried a 16 week study....they notified us on its abandonment after about 20 weeks. So we don't know for sure. No news is not necessarily good news.

But one note from the BoD a few years back always sticks in my mind.

We may not be biologists, but we're very good chemists.

My bet is they've got it right this time. That's all that matters. Hopefully everything falls into place thereafter.

(Not minimising the issue of funding, but saying it hinges on successful tox results)

Aye NTM - can't argue with that. Onwards and Upwards on the Xtract steamer non stop to Morocco and further stops in Zambia and BR.

Have a good weekend!

Err, isn't that EXACTLY what most of us have been trying to tell you for weeks ?

Jez.

Nail.

Head.

Hit.

"The delay was driven by plenty of factors totally outside of Xtracts control"

Probably shouldn't have given dodgy timelines then should he.

Sorry guvnor, not my fault! The dog ate my homework.

I genuinely can't believe there is never any criticism of the Messiah, aka the Birdman.

Yes he's getting things moving and I'm delighted with the RNS - topped up even.

But by Jove I wouldn't put a 50p bet on Colin's forward looking statements.

Can't trust the Roasties with a barge pole.

I believe in the project, not the timelines.

I make that £67.5m USD over the life of the mine using the NSR of 1%.

Using the 1.5m ounces and an average gold price of 4500 USD.

Won't be stable at that price and of course won't be 1.5m but it gives an idea.

They must be confident it will be a mine then!

Man without safety gear digging using a pneumatic drill. Not sure it constitutes an update as such - just shows a guy doing some drilling.

Also the second video was slightly concerning. Unsupported tunnel with man crawling through it?

This company has previous in Chile for unsafe activities. The last thing we want / need is a tunnel collapse and someone getting hurt.

If Colin does read the board, or perhaps OSV can nudge him - can we please ensure H&S is encouraged.

And for those saying "I'm sure he is". The videos HE posted do not fill me with confidence.

(And we have previous in this area)

I respect he puts a lot of effort into it.

But charts are pretty meaningless on AIM.

Also helps if you get the name of the stock right! (And the year!)

Completely waste of time that video.

It could go higher. But also could go lower. "Worth doing some research" though.

AIM is news driven. Always has been. He also called ORR Oracle resources and the beginning of the video welcomes viewers on 30th May 2025. Guy's an amateur. We are highly investable but not because of this guy or anyone's charts.

NTM - wouldn't want to be....?

With Ken providing so many RNSs we know Colin understands how to do them.

The question is, with so many progress seemingly being made here, why is Colin reluctant to give us the "official" update?

Ken have official updates. Why can't we?

NTM, I admire your positivity. However we have learned from past ventures at Manica that not being in control of proceedings means we are not able to dictate costs etc.

There was zero confidence in Manica operators giving the correct information on costs. We actually hardly got the correct figures as Joel was either incredibly slapdash when it came to providing the detail or he just didn't have it. Both aren't great.

Bearing in mind this is the same part of the world and we are once again at the whim of partners and not in control, experience in Xtract and in Zambia has taught me to be wary of both timeframes and forecasting profit here.

James was always fairly accurate with the accounting as I believe Andrew was too. The fact I trust board members on here more than Colin's forward looking cash production figures says it all.

You will forgive me JD for saying once again that although I believe we have had four blasts, we will always be slower to "production" than what Colin says on the Roasties podcasts. For, as you will know because you decided to lecture me recently in Project Management speak, there is always 3-point estimating.

I believe Colin always chooses the best scenario. That is who he is. It is not binary, will produce or wont produce - it is about taking his projections with an almighty pinch of salt.

Past experience tells us that is the sensible option - to not do so would mean you are incredibly naive or simply not reflecting on past missed deadlines, which Xtract has done many times before (bringing manica online - this cannot be disputed for it is fact. Gold in the nooks and crannies!)

I believe in the business case here - just not the spin that Colin always used in Podcasts.

THEREFORE, I would like an RNS please and will continue to ignore you reposting the same "best case scenario" that Colin spouts in the YouTube video.

Thank you.