Member Info for benbenbenben

Looking rather perky into the close - I wonder if that means...

https://s3.amazonaws.com/finecooking.s3.tauntonclud.com/app/uploads/2017/04/24171514/ING-leeks-thumb1x1.jpg

Agreed, I like days like today where the 8.30 tree shake starts when we're already 6% up!

Crikey, we're going to need a bigger boat!

@DonaldTrumpsWig - yes I was thinking that: presumably if a lorry load of finished tests sat at the docks for long enough to be delayed by customs, driven to Spain and initially assessed; they've also managed to drive a few from Wales to Wiltshire...

Hants - re TU & Boris updates, I share your hunch that the two are aligned with each other.

The fact that the UK-RATC / UK-RTC are becoming more porous with information, as evidenced by increasing media coverage, suggests whatever is coming is very close to being revealed now.

Fingers crossed!

I thought we'd see a greater climb than this today, and am somewhat surprised we trimmed out 25% gains by 10%, I thought it was likely a combination of the following, though keen to hear other ideas:

- Sentiment is dead: time-lines have slipped back and so anything that isn't cold, hard cash generation isn't as well received as it would have been pre-vaccine news

- While the data is encouraging, it still suggests there is a little further to go before we start bringing in revenues

- The market has yet to wake up to the opportunity here; it often takes a day or two to react to positive news of late

- Those holders who've been underwater for a while cashed out at the day's highs

Abbot added $6 Billion to their Mcap with a worse performing test, so I certainly thought we'd see £2+. Still, I think the trading update will likely come sooner than we think - hopefully with a nice surprise...

I think the trading update will follow after this update - but going off the key line from today's RNS:

"I am confident that these data will accelerate our commercial discussions"

Will also contain details of contracts, IMHO likely pending this initial confirmation of performance.

Just a hunch but I think if Surescreen received contracts on similar data sets, the TU in the next week or two could be explosive...

About 85% of my holdings - I threw everything I could at it and broke all the rules... But then opportunities like this don't come around often!

@leewill - good find!!

I'm very sorry to read this Rebecca - I know a lot of people are really struggling at the moment, being kind is one of the best things we can do in this world.

Fantastic RNS this morning - well done to all holders!

A few quick thoughts:

- 97% / 100% sens/spec is incredible, but I wonder if the sensitivity will improve in a larger trial; as only 1 false negative has been recorded but has an outsize impact given the small scale of the study

- Clinical Evaluation "has been carried out at two sites, one in EU and **one in the UK**; I would bet you any money the UK site is Porton Down

- Clinical Trials will now be carried out at "sites in the UK and the EU"; as above, this confirms UK parties are involved in validating the test - likely the government. I posited when the last RNS only discussed Europe, this was to do with an NDA in the UK, and I think that's validated today.

- This morning, RNS's were also released for Omega Diagnostics ABC-19 test data and Abingdon Health, alongside Avacta. Feels like its a coordinated release of information, almost like there's some sore of consortium...

I suspect the next RNS will be for a rather large government contract: the less of us sell in the intervening period, the higher the price will go...

TO THE MOON !!

Yeah looks like it - https://www.ft.com/content/40577a9b-d4d9-4cdd-8d08-43ce1c132406

Lol maybe what's left of it...

Some heavy buying into it as well - I wonder what Boris will say at 5...?

Given all that we know, including about the performance of our test, it doesn't seem unreasonable to conclude this is the minimum size contract we can look forward to... happy days!

Wildstar - I agree it makes no sense but I absolutely think disclosure of the tests *will* be delayed to allow for what you correctly term "showmanship".

Remember that 99.5% of the country has no idea that the 'sovereign test' even exists, let alone is ready for release, so how would they know if it's delayed to criticise it? If nothing else, the pandemic has really shown the Tories up as incompetent leaders who govern through spin - PR is the one thing they have going for them... They will want to make as much hay from this as possible; there will absolutely be a "grand reveal".

I think Rollyroll is probably right that UK validation is complete: if a *shipment* - 1,000's of tests - was, at some point in January, moving from BBI in Wales to Europe for clinical evaluation; that Al knows from *somewhere* that the lab sensitivity is >50 pg/ml; and that in November (RNS), tests began laboratory evaluation ahead of clinical evaluation, then that laboratory evaluation must be complete.

Given that I consider it beyond doubt that Avacta are working closely with the UK government, I would strongly infer from this that the laboratory evaluation Al cites is likely from the validation process at Porton Down. Or if not, that validation has likely occurred in parallel there.

Furthermore, if we are moving to clinical evaluation in Europe, I think it's very like clinical evaluation has already commenced in the UK. In fact, when I was thinking about this earlier today, I wondered whether the trading update would be reporting on UK results, not European results - as these would likely arrive first, and be accompanied by a finalized contract no longer covered by an NDA...

Maybe, maybe not - but I think February 22nd will likely be a critical date for the release of information, by both Avacta and the Government. Politics will be a key consideration here - it will have no relation to morals...

Imagine how annoyed you would be if you'd held this share for nearly 12 months and had to sell the lot two days ago to clear a debt...

I was hoping to slip back in later this month but there you go.

Well done all holders! GLA

Saliva based LFT's on their way, he says!

Thanks everyone for kind comments and an interesting thread.

Infinis - I'm afraid I don't know any more about Surescreen, though I somehow doubt they'll switch to making our test after scaling up their own (I could be wrong though).

Soleboy - that is interesting; I wonder if the Abingdon webinar today will throw up any more clues?

@Rorkesdrift - Yes, no doubt: obviously good for them they have 20m contract; what I mean is they are already expanding *now* to fill that contract, but by the time they would be in a position to expand *again* we will likely be dominant, so they will be checked at current supply levels (20m)

@Luke - I've no idea but I would be very surprised if they are not still foundational to our operations; a very well respected company and key operator for us, so hardly likely to just disappear. Like all, I only have a partial picture

@Doze - Thanks; I'm afraid I can't answer that as I am an architect not a journo, so I can only speculate alongside you. I do, however, believe in transparency, hence I have tried to honestly share what I can above in the hope that, collectively, we can join the dots!

2/2

- We know Al says the lab performance of our test is "outstanding", achieving 50pg/ml in the Lab; which is really, really good for an LFT. It certainly beats Mologic, and probably Surescreen, which I would suggest is why Mologic (GAD) are suddenly offering up manufacturing capacity, whereas Avacta/Abingdon are not

- Given Avacta were present at one-to-one meetings with Bozzer in Aug/20, and now have what is clearly one of - as Al says - the best performing LFT's available, and are also part of the UK-RATC, it seems beyond implausible to me that Avacta will not be supplying the UK-Gov with high volumes of LFT's

- Going further, given the work that has been done to bring the consortium together and the clear collaboration between Avacta & Mologic, it seems implausible to me that the 'unknown technology' the UK-RATC will manufacture on Mologic/Omega lines will be Mologic's 93% sensitive test - especially when the latter have been linked to us before Christmas, and the former are now in a confirmed partnership with us, which pre-dates Christmas... I can't really see a scenario where come today, they are scaling up Mfct but 'don't know' exactly what they will be manufacturing: I think they will use our regent in a standardized format.

- I have mentioned this elsewhere, but I think the clinical validation in Europe is a way of dealing with the CE mark / market updates / public promotion / Brexit hassles / Etc / independently of any UK-Gov process, which is covered by NDA (as per the tender docs we have all seen). Therefore if it was delayed by Brexit, but is now underway; we can infer this process started after Jan 01, but Trucks - with manufactured prototypes were at the border a minimum of 1-2 weeks ago. Therefore, It would be wild to think clinical validation in the UK had not already started prior to this if we are indeed involved with the government.

To conclude: in my view it seems insane to think that the UK government would spend months bringing together a sovereign LFT consortium, including our LFT manufacturer Abingdon - the largest in Europe - and us, now likely developers of the world's best performing LFT to then marry us with Mologic, our closest direct competitor; only to then award us their tech and manufacturing capacity, before putting us in the bin.

It's taken an age, longer than any of us - or by the looks of things, they - could have imagined, but it's all coming together now.

Politically, It also makes sense (I realllly hate the Tories): the best of British biotech collaborates to make a world leading diagnostic product, which helps end the pandemic globally in a shorter space of time (the power of rapid testing). You could see why a government may wish to have that as a post-Brexit success story...

Anyhow, GLA holders - it's all looking pretty nailed on to me at this point!

I hope you are all not going so mad under lock-down 3 you are writing posts like this at 12.30am !

;)