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John Bell loves the SureScreen test - he thinks its "the real deal".

Whether he is referring to that or another LFT is anyone's guess, but I very much doubt he is referring to Innova - he's not an idiot, knows its a bit **** and I doubt would go and use his reputation to bullet catch for Innova on national TV.

If he said the words "outstanding", my money is firmly on someone other than Innova; so is it SureScreen, or is it....?

The key difference between the west and Asia is that in the west we address only the serious illness, whereas in Asia they address the serious virus

A Cambridge professor told me in the summer that there were big problems with radioligand supplies, but I can’t quite remember what it was - I think it was that a key manufacturer had gone bankrupt and so there were shortages.

Anyhow, we were talking in the context of Avacta and she said there was a big market opportunity there for someone, so interesting Avacta have indeed entered it.

On a one hour chart we seem well supported on the long-term up-trend at 29p - I would be surprised if we fall any further or rise without the DFS confirmation once the Russian New Year is over next week..

Always read the small print lol - it's never a great sign when they disclaim their own accuracy claims..

"Package insert limited warranty and disclaimer

ZandCell.com makes no and expressly disclaims any representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding this kit or any information, method, process, procedure, chemical, or other material contained in this kit (the “material”), including without limiting the foregoing, any representation or warranty regarding the use of this kit or any results produced from its use, that this kit or any of the material will not infringe any third party rights or that the material is accurate or complete, or that this kit is of merchantable quality or is fit for any particular purpose. ZandCell.com expressly disclaims any and all liability whatsoever for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, proximate, consequential, or otherwise, including injury to persons or property, death, contamination, and any other adverse consequences, resulting in any way from the use of this kit or any of the material, or from any errors or omissions in the material and any errors or defects in, or failure of, this kit, whether claimed in contract, negligence or any other cause of action. in no event will ZandCell.com’s liability exceed the amount paid for this kit. users are warned that this kit is intended only to be used by, and to supplement the informed judgment of, appropriately qualified medical personnel. users assume sole responsibility for the use of this kit, including all responsibility for determining the appropriateness of its use in any particular situation, for any conclusions drawn from the results of its use, and for any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of the results of this kit."

https://zandcell.com/zandcell-covid-19-rapid-antigen-test/

He founded the company and has spent over a decade building it up - capital is fundamentally a measure of time...

Haha thanks all - I think Mark is right to say average up/down so have started scaling in a bit at a time.

Does anyone have any thoughts on what a near-peer market cap / target SP would look like for ARB?

Kicking myself for not getting on the train at 11p...

Anyone have any thoughts on a decent entry point - am nervous about spiking myself near the ATH..

?

Russian Christmas/New Year holiday until January 10th, FYI

I posted the below earlier this month and I'm sad to see newspapers are now speaking of a 'tier 5' (national lockdown) due imminently - with the new variant, mass-testing will be the only way out in the near term. So wherever Avacta are in the validation process, I imagine a lot of people have been working through the holidays...

"The new variant of Coronavirus is thought to increase the R number by 0.4. The previous national lockdown only reduced the R number to 0.8 outside of affected regions - in the South East cases continued to increase. Put simply: the new variant will not be contained by current measures and will necessitate a third national lockdown after Christmas with stricter controls.

At a time when the UK is being sealed off internationally, it’s clear the situation is very serious. The only way out beyond further lockdowns is mass testing, and on that basis, we will sell everything we can make."

Monkshood - if you have a look in his years annual report, in the diagnostics section, they discuss applying a second affirmer to the signal line of existing mAB LFTs to improve accuracy. IDK whether there is any relevant cross over here but perhaps you might...

I feel something often missing from these discussions is the fact Affimers are 10x smaller than mAB's - which is principle should allow your sensor area to be up to 10x more sensitive...

Kids version:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/946612/How_to_do_your_test_COVID_19_instruction_leaflet_for_schools.pdf

The throat part is interesting, isn't on the standard NHS instructions:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/11/LFD_NHSStaff_A4_161120_.pdf

Would anyone be kind enough to share a link please?

..which should clear out some of the bot flies on here today!

First read out of data four months into the does escalation phase suggests we could see data underpinning the entire PreCISION platform by Summer 2021 - unlocking the tremendous value here and the further development of another three assets using first-line chemotherapies. That these assets are already in development is due to the placing, so it doesn't look like such a bad idea now, does it!

And note the very clear timeframes and unambiguous language: just like the RNS's in the early summer regarding the LFT. The contrast is so marked between this RNS and recent comms around the LFT's clinical trial, it leaves me with little doubt there's an NDA in place.

Congratulations to the team at Avacta, who have no doubt been working very hard (for many years) - in very difficult conditions for the final stretch - to get to this point. Hopefully this key milestone will (re)impart confidence in our CEO and board of directors, who IMO get unfairly trashed on this BB board.

I've already seen one idiot on twitter saying 'tHiS iSnT rEaLlY bIg nEwS' - it is !!

"“Operation Moonshot” mass-testing plan, which aims to increase the number of tests carried out each day from 430,000 to 10m by early next year."

Ten million a day!!

As is clearly stated in a legally significant statement, it’s good to see the LFT is in Clinical Trials - likely a step beyond Clinical Evaluation with patient samples in a laboratory, and instead working with actual patients in the field.

It’s a shame there isn’t more information, but it’s very likely we know why: the CONDOR validation process, which we know we are in thanks to multiple RNS’s, makes clear that NDA’s must be signed. The same goes for the government procurement process - and they are likely to be our largest customer. All these documents have previously crossed this board.

It’s frustrating that the LFT is behind schedule, but for some time now it’s been clear third parties are the primary engine of progress here and we are somewhat at their mercy.

Equally, the science is evidentially pretty complex, which is why the current number of high performance, British LFT’s on sale is zero.

The new variant of Coronavirus is thought to increase the R number by 0.4. The previous national lockdown only reduced the R number to 0.8 outside of affected regions - in the South East cases continued to increase. Put simply: the new variant will not be contained by current measures and will necessitate a third national lockdown after Christmas with stricter controls.

At a time when the UK is being sealed off internationally, it’s clear the situation is very serious. The only way out beyond further lockdowns is mass testing, and on that basis, we will sell everything we can make.

Yes, the timescales have slipped and it’s frustrating, but we’re very close to the finish line now and a good time to be invested,IMHO.

Obviously deeply unjust and nothing to be celebrated, but indicative of the likely global demand for cheap, rapid testing for years to come:

"No vaccines for poorer countries until 2024, documents claim
The global scheme to deliver vaccines to poorer countries faces a “very high” risk of failure, leaving potentially billions of people with no access to vaccines until as late as 2024, internal documents seen by Reuters have revealed.

The World Health Organization’s Covax programme is the main global scheme to vaccinate people in poor and middle income countries around the world against the coronavirus. It aims to deliver at least 2bn vaccine doses by the end of 2021 to cover 20% of the most vulnerable people in 91 poor and middle-income countries, mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

But in internal documents reviewed by Reuters, the scheme’s promoters say the programme is struggling from a lack of funds, supply risks and complex contractual arrangements which could make it impossible to achieve its goals.

“The risk of a failure to establish a successful Covax Facility is very high,” says an internal report to the board of Gavi, an alliance of governments, drug companies, charities and international organisations that arranges global vaccination campaigns. Gavi co-leads Covax alongside the WHO.

The report and other documents prepared by Gavi are currently being discussed at Gavi’s board meetings.

The failure of the facility could leave people in poor nations without any access vaccines until 2024, one of the documents says.

The risk of failure is higher because the scheme was set up so quickly, operating in “uncharted territory”, the report says.

It says:

Current risk exposure is deemed outside of risk appetite until there is full clarity on the size of risks and possibilities to mitigate them. It therefore requires intensive mitigation efforts to bring the risk within risk appetite.

Gavi hired Citigroup last month to provide advice on how to mitigate financial risks.

In one November memo included in the documents submitted to the Gavi board, Citi advisers said the biggest risk to the programme was from clauses in supply contracts that allow countries not to buy vaccines booked through Covax.

A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand “is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,” the Citi advisers wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.

“Therefore it must either be mitigated through contract negotiation or through a Gavi risk absorption layer that is carefully managed by a management and governance structure.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/16/coronavirus-live-news-trump-will-absolutely-encourage-americans-to-take-vaccine-says-press-secretary?page=with:block-5fd9fb4c8f08758977b3f559#block-5fd9fb4c8f08758977b3f559

In their defence it might be more a celebration of updated data - dashboard was the same in the summer but pretty sure the figures have changed..

(CONDOR still seems quite useless, though perhaps now it’s more established they’re running more smoothly)