Member Info for belgrano

Hi Morbox,
Your article puts a completely different perspective on the agreement which we all believed was settled, with the accord we saw a week ago. Sounds like its old politically based hardliners stopping progress. Need proper clarification really as the article doesn't mention payments at all. We know the KRG are corrupt but I'd make a sound assumption the Iraq has its fair share as well including some troublemakers.

Hi Armasmaximilian,
What fields would that be from, I thought they were max'd out already.

Thinking if your aim was to remove a decent percentage of stock from circulation you would keep the dividend at a "modest", figure. Clearly if was upped to what they might be able to afford now, the stock price would jump and the buybacks become much more expensive.
Better to keep it modest for a couple of years, then boost the divi.

Guess they could announce a continuation of the buyback share scheme. Must be saving some serious amounts in dividends from the amount of liquidated stock.

Seems to me that both sides of this squabble have a decent claim and could be easily settled. So the ruling is Turkey ripped off the KRG on transport and shipping costs while ignoring SOMO which they should have done.
Well they played hardball, and its not correct that they should have paid near on the market crude price.. was always going to be initial high transport costs , as pipeline installers want their reward as well. Effectively that's water under the bridge.
So now the official ruling is that Turkey owes Baghdad 1.5B , and Turkey says Baghdad owes then for the 4 cases it lost. Clearly wants to agree a reduced settlement fee , including a decent sum for the four lost cases.
The 1.5B fig sounds a lot, but its in effect a $10/barrel fee for one year, or pretty close. However the remaining say $65 per barrel payment would go into the shared Iraqi/Kurdi accounts.
Easy solution, $10 barrel fee, for two years charged by Turkey (no money to change hands so effectively allowing them to work off the debt and gain a reward, then after that period the transport feed is halved and stays there.

That way the more oil pumped and the quicker it goes the more everyone makes.

Hi BB,
I looked after the processes, and we've had a few hairy incidents (or moments of maximum interest), in what would hopefully be uneventful shifts. Cat cracker has two sides and the oxygen enriched side runs at 750 degrees where the coke is literally burnt off the catalyst, and the gas rich cracking side which runs at 540 degrees. where the heavy liquid feed is cracked in 1 sec by 750 degree catalyst circulating at 9 tons a second through 92inch lines ... .and "never the two shall meet". Thats the oxygen and the hydrocarbon gas, as all the oil is vaporised instantly. Residfiners run at 200B and the equipment is expensive as the reactor walls are 9 inches thick. Leaks there get serious pretty quick because the process liquid is mixed also with a hydrogen gas stream at 260b at the mixing point, and above auto ignition. I not prejudiced but really doubt that Iraq caan maintain this equipment themselves without constant overseas experts assisting them for a very long time.

Even better if you get Japan to pay 1B towards it.
https://www.mees.com/2021/8/27/news-in-brief/japan-fronts-300mn-for-iraq-refinery/a8793320-073e-11ec-a599-bbdd96434cc0
One comment in that article that stunned me was In Iraq refinery output fuel oil accounts for nearly 50% of the total B/D.
Unbelievably poor performance, off the scale... totally uneconomic. Says that they are just doing quick flash distillation , so must be putting everything into the HFO pool, and downgrading half to peanuts, worth about $100 a ton (6 barrels), where if properly upgraded would be worth perhaps $2000 a ton.

Hi BB,
Asphalt unit, that can process Heavy bitumastic feedstock and effectively turn it into roadfill. Is old hat in most parts of the world but is a cheap fix with what to do with it, because I see the not yet commissioned Cat cracker cost 4B, so wasn't far out on my estimate, but I've run one for 20 years, so had a good idea. Flexi Coker are the most modern, costing more than a Cat, and very technical, but highly profitable when running efficiently. Large one currently being built by ~Exxonmobil in Antwerp, which will use heavy feedstock from around Europe as feed. Actually turned down a job to help with its construction from a process engineer perspective. You are dead right about the essential requirements to maintain the sulphur recovery units properly.. These can be really difficult especially if any slight errors in the construction phase like inner stm leaks from the jacketed pipework (not stm traced), with cause product to turn to sulphurcrete which is as hard as concrete, or sulphur leaks which tend to auto ignite and you know you have a leak from the highly toxic hydrogen sulphide that it gives off as it burns with a lazy flame.
Did hear that a lot of the sulphur when converted back to its elemental state is desert stored in "sulphur mountains". There is some market for it as fertiliser construction feedstock but its limited. Always give me concerns when I hear that our company are looking at using our well head gases instead of flaring. Using the gas in its clean state is the real easy part, getting it clean and treating the hydrogen sulphide within in is the bit thats difficult for a sustainable part of the process. Far better if we can pump it sour to a combining facility somewhere where its scaled up for treatment and further processing.

oops..continued, ..or even upgrading facilities such as a residfiner, hydrofiners, or even my old plant a cat cracker. So they will have a huge amount of bitumen, HFO type product with nowhere to go. Certainly some feed slate analysis that I saw just a few years ago pointed at this still happening. Else where in the middle East top European technology and design have bought it up to scratch, however Kurdistan is still some years away, and several billion dollars (I kid not), from achieving the general infrastructure that would even support the required equipment. They bicker over commissioning one single line that would bring wealth to all, While they could easily be constructing now as you rightly say another two export lines for increased oil rates/ different spec, and a larger one for exported gas. Europe right now would rip their hands off at such a suggestion, and could easily tie up all the waste gas from the well heads to export and not just flare, damaging the atmosphere further. I wouldn't even site the gas liquification or power generation in Kurdistan but do it in Turkey instead. We wait to see what happens but I'm not honestly holding my breath on that one, even if the idea is sound.

HI BB,
They must be slipstreaming (with a flux oil , normally HHO), the heavier components back into the general crude export line. This is due to as you say the poor Nelson index rating. They just don't have any plant able to deal with it such as a flexicoker

HI BB,
Appreciate your informative post, giving insight to the various grade qualities being extracted and mixed. The sulphur content of the various streams will most certainly attack the carbon steel pipelines unless they went for chromium 5% carbon steel pipework which we use in high corrosion locations but would not normally be used.
Do you know if the Residue Heavy Fuel Oil as waste from the KAR group is fed into the the crude line like I expect. Little wonder that refinery makes a lot of money, probably just using a few vacuum distillation towers for product skimming. So I expect the Barzani family do very nicely out of this arrangement, at the expense of everyone else.
I didn't know they have close ties with it, but suspect they have fingers in most places where money is being made from oil in Kurdistan. They have been creaming it off for years while the people endure hardship, in what might be one of the richest countries in the world.

As a rough percentage bet they are throwing 10% of feedstock as HFO back into the crude production line. This is a well know tactic used in the undeveloped middle East. Complex refineries have adapted to profit from it, as its normally 5 dollars cheaper than Brent, but you can get higher yields from it like diesel if treated right, so in effect becoming more valuable that Brent (which tends to favour lighter (petrol) type production.
However recently it been the same international price as Brent, and the other well known but blacklisted similar heavy crude is Russian crude, which highly developed refiners like India can't get enough off currently as its being bought at discount. The refined finished products are mixed (with non sanctioned product) and sold back to Europe competing and beating our local refiners, or sold as products to China to further manufacture on, and compete in the international markets.
Oops I digress, sorry rant over , but you get the idea. Great to see Uncle Sam now trying to influence Turkey to restart exports from Kurdistan, suspect we wont be waiting much longer now, although the article about them doing some essential maintenance on the pipeline is good news if not done quickly could drag on. Didn't we have the pipeline damaged a few years ago and forced them to put in a "temp" repair.

This extract is from the article " touch long but don't want to misinterpret the whole message.
"The KRG prime minister said in 2021 that they sold a barrel of oil $10 cheaper than the price of Brent, the most commonly-traded oil, due to its lower quality and higher production fees.
However Barzani denied reports that the KRG sells its oil for $10-11 cheaper than the Iraqi government.

Now lets examine those two points, Yes it is a bit heavier so lower quality, but made worse by Kurdistan flash distillation techniques skimming off the easy naphtha's and gasoil (petrol and diesel), and checking the rest back into the crude pool. (wheres that product and profits going?).
Next "higher production costs", where labour is very cheap and companies like ours extract for $3 a barrel. Also I believe we are paid from the oil revenues, not before its sold..so completely wrong on both counts.
So where is the extra $10-11 dollars a barrel going? Little wonder the Iraqi government have been in dispute for years.
Suspect its being carved up nicely by KRG/and Turkey, and not all to the public purse either.
This is a huge amount which using 400k BOPD and $10 per barrel adds up to 1460M annually.
Are we now surprised that they are not happy and have not restarted exports under Baghdad's transparency and control.

I expect some of the delay is due the article below and not just the arbitration smokescreen.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/040420232
Clearly officially selling oil $10 per barrel below the going rate, then taking all kinds of back handers, now Iraq wants market price paid, and I expect billed items like transportation and storage which will be about $1 a barrel (not $10), will have to be applied to Baghdad for. Cuts out all the creaming off the top by KRG and Turkey.
That's what they don't like, the brown envelops are coming to an end. Will also increase producers income when it restarts.
Now we have Uncle Sam trying to hurry them up with agreement , which should help speed things up one hell of a lot.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2437999-turkey-awaits-iraq-guarantees-to-restart-crude-exports
This was kindly posted yesterday, however I believe the majority missed the key point and believed it pointed to the requirement to have satisfactory results from the meeting.

What the words actually are "awaiting a response from Badhdad about having a meeting on outstanding arbitration".

Although we may concur its about satisfactory results, it says in effect ...just reply that we will schedule a meeting and the taps can flow. The stupid thing about it is the longer it goes on for the more everyone looses, especially Turkey who I suspect have angered some in Iraq by linking additional demands into restarting flow.
Believe its more a point of principle that you dont give in to blackmail like that, rather than the actual cost, which would be earnt in days with royalty flow payments.
Did Baghdad know this when accord with Kurdistan was quickly made, knowing that Turkey a third party was going to scupper any deal regardless. Certainly interesting times and when they do resolve matters and I'm sure they will soon enough it may remove another hurdle out of the way.

Seeing slow but steady upward trend from the recent dip in share price as confidence slowly returns. Was pointed out that previous runs on the banks had the same effect and trend, price recovered but over a 6 month period or so.
Certainly those that invested those 60M trades today think the same and points to returning confidence.

I was referring to the 1st reported RNS Elrico, not the corrected one. Before the markets closed we saw a raft of sells rolling in which pointed to someone acting on the info which was due to be announced at 7am the following morning.

Its not the first time this has happened when less than inspiring news has been released...not massive unloading but definitely there, and i bet if an investigation was launched links back to those who knew would be found. Just too co incidental in my book.
I see Toyin is talking carp again, at least I've got him to thank for helping me decide to offload nearly all my stock at prices better than currently. Cheers mate, I'll buy you one at the next meet up.
Still awaiting for the new company release about the distribution company thats "In the bag", that was last Dec. Mind you I'm still waiting for this "new major player" who's worth leaving 1.2M on the table for.... Well that was carped up excuse for a total launch failure.. which was surprising as pre sales enquiries "were growing at an alarming rate",...mmm more carp designed to get investors buying stock more like...I've still recall being told on the phone from after the Manchester meet where one decent guy believed that number was over 50K...However thats water under the bridge, and some want to move on, but just be really careful with this stock that you dont get yet more delay coupled with poor returns while the management team rip out a top 2% salary that even going by a 40% annual increase in axis sales will take another 3 years to draw even with.
One big one for me and worth thinking about was the fact that the Croda deal was seen as a extra free carry, not an equal string to the bow, so as Croda are doing all the expenditure and running I don't believe returns will be very inspiring there either. Actually hope I'm wrong on these matters for the good of the long time investors here. Was dead right about the lack of general news before the last updates meant bad news, I'd also submit that similar lack of info about Croda margins could well mean the same, so be very careful while they hide behind NDA's as an excuse.
Strong comparisons to OPTI performance here.

Hi Madabout tech.
There was most certainly clear signs of leakage before the release of the last RNS, can remember seeing it clearly for about 2 hrs before close.

Might be a little bit of limbo for a couple of sessions with possibly a downward drift. Perfect opportunity and timing to do some essential housekeeping with moving shares into an ISA to protect future divis from the taxman.

Anyone who hasn't done this should consider it seriously, regardless of what stocks or stock you select. Know some savvy investors on here have already done it.

There are extremely limited alternative export alternatives at a time when every other oil producer is in the same boat, which will give the local refiners choice of supplier..so wont be ours due to being too heavy. ..Also drive already locally low prices lower.
However we must bear in mind, Kurdistan with a population of 6M has 1M employed working for the government...Clear over employment here, with those percentages but it strengthens the resolve with those numbers to get the oil flowing as without it, everyone looses out.
Actually if handled correctly Kurdistan could become per capita one of the richest regions or states in the world, due its oil reserves and output. I don't think it for one second, but it most certainly could be if corruption slashed and international payments made promptly as per existing contracts would entice plenty more international players to participate.

Hi Opulentia,
Withholding oil production has been tried with other companies before, believe DNO even took them to court over it, and got nowhere.
Everyone loses out, and it sours relationships for the future. Just accept payments likely to be late and keep accurate account of them. Better off keeping production going, and increase if possible.