Member Info for belgrano

Now SOMO in effect control the selling of our crude, and appear to have agreement of Kurdistan.

Previously the two did not agree which forced Kurdistan to go cap in hand to Turkey, who agreed to export on their behalf, but certainly required a pound of flesh for doing so.

Turkey still trying to play hardball, lying about pipeline repairs, and whinging because it lost the court case to Iraq and not wanting to pay.

However they have a much weaker hand against SOMO, they are not dealing with the Kurds anymore. They better start to realise it, or may lose out bigtime.

Please correct me if wrong, but isnt there also a export route to the gulf, which could be explored if SOMO want to use it to gain additional revenues which they desperately require. Previously not available to the Kurds, but

Having an election should not get in the way of opening a pipeline valve. thats a process issue not a political one.

However now we get to the crux of the matter, previously it was the kurds and Turkey, so Turkey held Erbil to ransom over charges and kickbacks as they were in effect landlocked at the time.

Now SOMO is in control and they want full transparency and control over exports via turkey. They have already now requested Turkey to open the export valves so crude can flow.

However Turkey will not be able to hold SOMO to ransom like they did the Kurds, and the kickbacks Turkey and its leadership were clearly getting will no longer apply.

Thats why they don't like it, however its up to them if they want to bite off their noses to spite their faces. Might be a new broom at the helm anyway in the next few weeks depending on these elections. We shall see. However the days of excessive Turkish greed are over. Yes they will still do very well from pipeline tariffs, but the brown envelops will now stop.

They would be wise to restart flows or may find SOMO explores other export routes.

It all comes down to money and corruption at the highest levels.

Turkey has not said no, but neither has it agreed to export either.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2448640-turkey-silent-on-iraq-crude-export-resumption-request

However Iraq is over 500k BOPD short onb its opec quotas so plenty of room to make u some serious shortfall, and keep export rates at max, for a long time. link below.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2447629-iraq-apr-crude-output-05mn-bd-under-opec-quota-somo

Hi Rhena,

With ministers causing delays by with holding permissions to export we can both strongly agree on.

However I believe our company side of things are pretty tight and fairly professional now. Getting the greedy corrupt ministers of the the various three parties and regions to agree is like herding cats.

You can bet they are being paid while they all seek extra advantage over the others.

We know this is one of the most corrupt regions of the world, it should be one of the wealthiest, but instead is mired with in fighting with tribal and family feuds .

However in the case of the combined kurdistan crude exports, the amount and value is just too high to ignore so they actually do all need to come to an agreement.

We know many points have been agreed and are now on the final wrap up of details. Bet no money owed by Turkey actually changes hands and all sides agree to "work off the debt, via exports".

When our company will get paid for the oil already produced and sold is something else again.

Think we have to take things one step at a time, and be very cautious indeed.

Actually if given the green light on exports, I doubt it would take weeks to achieve full production. This is because the facility was managed carefully with a controlled shutdown and not any emergency shutdown.

Indeed the full tanks will boost export production.

Our fields are complicated, but this should not damage them at all.

We still expect our contracts to be honoured in full, and expect them to be grandfathered over

I also disagree that this is a pure gamble, but agree its not risk free, but no stock is and this does offer some stunning upsides, which few stocks have.

Not sure why you posted the comments about delays in getting our plant running because I doubt it true...Indeed the outage has enabled maint work to be completed so will probably be be better than before the shutdown.

The good news is heavier , sour slate crude like ours is currently very much in demand and is attracting higher rates, which is unusual but not unprecedented.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Low-Quality-Crude-Sees-Mysterious-Price-Rally.html

Its clearly in everyone's interest to get the crude moving again, and now we have information that SOMO has asked Turkey to resume exports.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/12052023

Turkey gets rewarded for every barrel of crude exported via its pipeline so they do well.

What's changed is SOMO now handle the contracts, so will have much more transparency and unable to get additional kickbacks for selling the crude on again at increased prices as Israel has been doing.

We have most certainly moved a step forward now this request has been sent.

I don't believe it will belong now before the crude starts exporting again, but this time we will be in a much better position than previously.

Off topic and sorry but aimed at the traders on here who might be interested. As i've done well from your shred tips in the past.

Company GKP....just reported on Reuters that Iraq has asked turkey to restart kurdish crude oil exports via turkey after a month and big share price decline. Also large shorts out on GKP. News is like minutes old.

Not often if confirmed that small investors steal the march on the big boys, but with breaking news and a host of eyes watching we may have done it today. If true those shorts will really burn, as they will have to buy the stock. For the record just bought nearly a 9k top up.

Big bit missed from the discussion but in the Reuters article. Somo has got customers and contracts for Kurdistan oil, which has taken weeks to arrange. That's highly significant ....time to make a few bob guys...get stuck in.

For capacity see below. Four tanks could have stockpiled total production for a few of the local producers.

The crude oil storage tank capacity of a tank that has a diameter of 88 metres and a height of 19.5 metres will be roughly 118 000 cubic metres. Some tanks are so large that they can hold a massive 16 million gallons of crude oil at a time tank size.
Thats 660k barrels.

crying shame that our company never built 4 decent sized storage tanks. talking to some supervisors who have built them recently the cost would only have been at max 3m per tank. that's for some very decent sized tanks, which would have enabled production to continue at full capacity. indeed would pay for themselves with the first filling and and spare capacity could be shared with other operators such as genel.

gkp certainly have options when restarting. temp tankage is a possibility, although i do keep pushing for additional tankage regardless. with temporary tankage such as a row of slop tanks , could most certainly start producing crude while pumping out from both our current two storage tanks. I would make some ullage first then start production. We can pump out faster than we can produce by a decent margin.
cannot start production unless they have somewhere to put the crude produced.
However all the oil companies will have full tankage as well. Certainly once the crude is moving and confirmed, pumping rates can be increased steadily.
We could certainly export a lot more than 55k BOPD, until tankage levels back to normal.
So the extra crude we have in storage will increase production figs until back to running levels.
will still take a few days although it wont take weeks.

We know Italy has been a beneficiary of Kurdistan crude exports, and was discounted by some on here as a minor league player, however it does have a very active role with the peshmerga military against ISIS. With defence reps from Italy going to kurdistan to discuss security I expect getting the oil flowing is high on the addenda.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/020520231

but their euro is good.

Good one Wmsjames.
Just reviewing a older report. Where this was mentioned.
“There is communication with the Turkish government,” said Al-Awadi. Turkish authorities have “requested a short period of time as they examine the oil-pumping lines and pipelines in order to ensure their safety” following two devastating nearby earthquakes in February, he said.
oh and link....https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iraq_turkey_working_to_resume_oil_transport_soon_says_official-27-apr-2023-172636-article/
Initial view might well be thats a load of tosh, as they were pumping full rates for ages after the quakes in Feb, however I have seen pipelines that are subject to landslip/movement, and they often warp and twist but maintain their integrity. However do have stresses within them and often require additional support, so although I for one initially discounted this, it might certainly have some factual credence, and require doing. Going to be extra start up pressures put n the line, which are higher than normal running and we did hear reports of some essential maint taking place. Last thing you want is a rupture, as line will be out for a few weeks at very, very best.

Talks have already been taking place so its clear, both sides want and indeed need the crude to start flowing soon. Both sides know that delay costs them serious amounts of income.
I wouldn't mind a friendly wager that come this time next month we'll all be sitting here wishing we'd purchased more during this period.
Fiver to charity of your choice ...any takers, and i'll pay even if I'm right.

Believe those two items are a wish list which they might go into talks with however. Turkey lost the case, they cannot expect any 50 year agreement to be upheld..
Wouldn't actually expect them both to be agreed, in fact not even the first either.

they just want the gravy train to continue. may be some room for manoeuvre is say a proportion of the oil for turkish use sold at discount, and the majority at the going rate.
smacks of something else, wouldn't have put it past the Turks to make those getting cheap oil pay for the port infrastructure, so they also over a barrel.
Yep still some good money to be made here but they are all as corrupt as it comes. Got to be wary.

I actually dont blame Baghdad, for paying hardball with the KRG. As more information comes out it seems they have already been paid 6B for the crude oil which has been trouser'd.
Reports suggest they worked more shady deals getting money up front, then reneged on the oil companies, and local population. Where has all the money gone???
Smells like they knew they were going to loose the case, so ran off with the oil proceeds, but are now firmly on the hook.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraqi-kurdish-oil-stoppage-halts-6-billion-debt-repayment-traders-sources-https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraqi-kurdish-oil-stoppage-halts-6-billion-debt-repayment-traders-sources-2023-03-30/