Member Info for belgrano

This is very encouraging. Uncle sam now involved as a matter of urgency and the Iraqi minister saying "We hope to receive a delegation from the Turkish side soon to resolve this issue," Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani told Rudaw earlier this week, expressing optimism about the resumption of the Region's oil exports, saying that the stoppage "will not continue" amid ongoing negotiations with Ankara.

Not a brilliantly translated article however says its only Kurdish exports via turkey that are stopped by Kirkut is still flowing.

https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraqs-oil-revenues-in-may-surpass-7-3-billion/

Some goods posts here recently, many thanks to all that haveprovided them.

Market price action over the last couple of sessions has been definitely positive with a few positions being taken looking at a lot of the trades. Expect a couple of Genel directors also feel the same way putting serious investment into their company.

Cant find anything recent on line , apart from what's already been kindly shared. We know a Iraqi delegation is due to meet its Turkish counterparts but no dates on whether its due or has happened. However the loss of 450k BOPD is not small beer by anyone's estimation, and now SOMO control the purse strings it will be top priority on their agenda.

Expected to see the crude flowing by end of May, but was out on timing so will put a fiver into a uk based charity pot.

For those large buys the broker probably phoned around known large holders of genel stock to see if they would release some. If bought on the open market it would have made a larger impact.

However 2 big directors buys do send serious signals to the market. Clearly they believe the crude will be flowing again soon.

Hi Handy,

Recent article says that sales of F16 jets are being held up by congress.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/05/19/what-turkeys-erdogan-really-wants-00033855

Looking at the most up to date information I've seen (although still a week or so old), Iraq has sent a delegation to Turkey to discuss opening the crude export line. Seems items like money unpaid and current court cases have been discussed.

Now we do have Turkey elections finalised and already things are on the move.

So the delegations probably have reached some accord, just need the newly elected president and SOMO bosses to finally agree and we could be off to the races. Still going to be a week or so before we hear anything concrete I expect.

USA is getting priority with a probable Turkey ratification of Sweden into NATO, and Turkey getting the F16's that they have been after for a long time. Next will be the crude flows as them planes don't come cheap.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2452260-iraq-says-restart-of-northern-exports-waiting-on-turkey

Putting 800K of your skin in the game at genl is not a punt. Also Genel is like GKP, limited assets outside Kurdistan, so his reasons for this director buying stock are clearly Kurdistan related.

Their stock is also down 30% recently. Clearly this director has received information that things will be sorted to the advantage of his company before very long.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/GENL/in-brief-company-associated-with-genel-energy-director-buys-shares-xksxy3gejwdonsa.html

hi ****eye,

actually only been in with this stock a few months, although i was in for a period before we indeed struck first oil and in while we rose after repeated strikes. indeed i left when i realised we had purchased our crude settling and tanks but got the gor wrong. hope that answers your question mate.

Believe many posters on here posting tripe in the hope of a share price crash which quite frankly isnt going to happen soon.

However it must be admitted that to the most part we have clowns in charge in Baghdad and Erbil.

For the most part, the majority would never get employment working in my local recycling centre on the bins rather than in charge of oil and incomes. This is because many have been just given government jobs with fat undeserved salaries, because they belong to to the right family or factional ties.

Clearly trying to break recent agreements by changing financial terms is a classic example. However many of these Clowns have double dealt in corruptive practices for many years, so what's seemingly idiotic behaviour to us may earn them a pat on the back from others in their family.

We have to admit sharp practices happen with GKP as well from Kozels huge salary and clear bribes in the past, now we have pretty disgusting amounts of free stock being self awarded by our management team for doing almost nothing.

However if those trying all these things which prevent the crude from flowing, and had some decency and common sense Iraq /Kurdistan/Turkey and indeed GKP and its investors could do very well indeed in a very short time frame.

One of the very first things he can achieve as a way of partly sorting out Turkeys financial crises is to get the crude flowing again without delay.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/28/europe/turkey-president-runoff-polls-erdogan-intl/index.html

Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/turkeys-runoff-election-is-paralyzing-key-oil-exports-from-northern-iraq.html

This most recent article tells us a few things.

Good understanding between Erbil and SOMO, with re-affirming that SOMO is in control.

Crude export contract rate, 500,000 BOPD, not some reduced quota that nay sayer's were trying to spread rumours about. Also rates to continue into the foreseeable.

Still awaiting the finishing of pipeline repairs caused by earthquake... Elections just 2 days away. Expect he will want the cap feather for the pipeline reopening.

Ball put firmly into Turkeys park now, make no mistake.

Optimistic about resumption of crude flows soon.

Note nothing about other items being strung onto discussions regarding pipeline opening, like water rights. Think thats just pure fabrication and false reporting.

hi ****eye,

do you really believe that turkey has the trump hand here having already lost the legal battle with another pending. or are you just trying to get the share price lower.

when it was just kurdistan with no co-operation from erbil i would have agreed with you, however somo is ten times more powerful and does have potentially other routes out for kurdish oil. things have moved on fella, got to keep up with the facts. the crude will be flowing soon despite what a good few wishful thinkers are posting.

Hi Armas and CCC, Yes Iraq has a quota from OPEC and if you look they are nearly 500K BOPD below that right now. Well worth sticking the the facts and not getting distracted by untruths and guesswork. No points for knowing where that shortfall is from. The internal agreement is that Kurdistan will export the missing 500k bopd. Also CCC, that article is pure guesswork not not based on any factual evidence that Turkey will try to include several completely different things like water and defence on oil exports. That simply wont happen and they are not foolish enough to even try it. Suspect article written badly without facts for sensationalism alone. Anyone who believes it should sell holdings today.

Clearly Iraq is exploring alternative routes of crude export, as they don't believe the export line is unavailable due to technical reasons probably believing thats its actually Turkish leaders trying to control sales on which Turkey lost the case against Iraq.

Thats saying they lost the case but still refuse to accept the result. Let alone pay the fines.

Its just brinkmanship, and they are all loosing far more is lost revenue than make an agreement.

Its not impossible that alternative route will be decided on as Iraqis not Erbil, and will not give in to Blackmail and corruption by Turkey.. they've enough of that already.

I'm still going with a settlement in a couple of weeks because Turkey just cannot afford to let the Arab countries come to an alternative export agreement on new routes. This would be foolish in the extreme because I doubt they will see Kurdish crude again.

They just cant push Baghdad that far as this flow is only one tenth of what they produce, not 80% like it is for Kurdistan. Thats a fundamental difference, and SOMO now calls the shots.

Ergodon's popularity is increasing recently, and he only needs another 0.5% to win in 5 days time.

https://politpro.eu/en/turkey

Big feather in his cap if the newly re-elected leader can get the crude oil moving again just days into the start of his new leadership if he as expected wins.

Not that hard for him to achieve either and expect nearly all the discussions have already taken place.

Then big fanfare, backslapping and biscuits with a double dose of self congratulation for something that could have easily been done weeks ago, but held for such an opportunity as this...(oh officially the "repair work " now completed.)

With more money held back it will strengthen the company, also says when the exports start again the stock price might increase further as dividend payments will resume.

Coming out and saying they are going to streamline and cut 11k jobs, is pretty fundamental. Says they are following many other big operators and making some very serious efficiencies. Its companies that fail to do anything fail and ruthless survive and prosper.

Also says to me a good place for investment, although its a tough pill to swallow if you are one of the initial 11k.

Hi Armasmaximilian,

If I understand your question clearly you are asking why GKP are not trucking crude south right now. Its a good question, and the short answer is that they expect the Turkish pipeline to be available soon.

The logistics of a full trucking operation south although if allowed are a nightmare to set up if not going to be sustainable. Know we did have tanker loading facilities, but unsure of its current state of readiness for operations,

Its a lot of tankers carrying say 150 barrels of crude each , and need designated tankage in which to offload and decent facilities to do so.

Certainly a few could be done, but large convoy required for sustainable production. Its an alternative option only at this stage.

I'm sure the normal biscuits will be eaten in a week or three and problems resolved with the pipeline "repairs " now completed. Then the crude flows will resume, along with the public fanfare and two faced back slapping.

If they are now working together, nothing is off the table.