Member Info for belgrano

Or you exercise some stock in order to move them to a more efficient tax wrapper..

Best time to do it is when the stock price is low so able to get a lot more in.

Best done with stocks that might generate a handsome divi or growth in the near future.

Expect many on here done the same, I have.

Hi Gruntar,

Loosing the "angels share", is a really serious issue which oilers dont like talking about.

Even in the UK where pipelines serve major airports from major refineries via multi purpose buried pipelines I think many peeps would be stunned if they knew just how many "angels " have been discovered in just the last 18 months using illegal "hot tap " operations, and helping themselves by the tankerful . Even have crude labs set up so they only sip the correct grade like white diesel compared to jet. Many only getting caught when they get too greedy. Actually very easy indeed to do.

Clear risk of a major spill or fire with this kind of action.

So if we've had two full pipelines sat full of Iraqi crude stretching many hundreds of miles, might the same have happened in a very corrupt part of the world.. Thats more likely the need for pipeline inspections rather some earthquake after which they ran at full tilt for 6 weeks.

Also another reason for a careful start up.

If the line crossed a mountain range in between, unless a vent valve was opened to allow the crude to gravitate downwards, it will normally remain full. Only a fool would open a vent and potentially allow oxygen into line containing hydrocarbons.

Hi Gruntar,

The pipelines are constructed normally with safety valves to protect the line from over pressurisation normally from a boxed in line.

Almost certainly the message came through to stop the Iraqi feed pumps. No one would just shut a block valve or control valve against an incoming flow unless they wanted to deal with a major crude spill.

Common industry practice is the leaving the line "floating" on tankage. That means no valve actually closed.

Line will slowly depressurise into the tank, but they never empty, normally always some level in tankage so already got a slight head on the discharge side of the line.

Might get some gas flashing off, over time but bar a few hundred tons or so the line will effectively still be full.

When a pipeline is undergoing a total grade change IE: diesel to naphtha, we would normally insert a pig , which is a device like a sausage, with multiple layers of flexible heady duty plastic cups which rub along the inside of the pipe to push the normally slower moving liquid at the inner edge forwards. They are very effective with minimal wastage even over long distances. However apart from some vapour sections, we believe the pipeline is predominantly liquid full, so we can forget about the requirement for thousands of tons to fill.

Clearly there is every opportunity here for large amounts of crude to "vanish", ie being diverted to a grade change tank, and left for a very long time, till that tank fills?

Another one....we are suddenly supplying local refinery our max output with local priced $30 crude....hang on, I didnt think the local refiners could process all our heavier grade crude.....possibly some, but plenty of opportunity here, to give the refinery a small slipstream while the bulk disappears, to be sold at much higher prices, by either transported by pipeline or trucked by road car.

This is Iraq, creaming off at every opportunity happens, even when it was going to Turkey it was going to Israel, with some being creamed off for further profits.

I've a strong holding here, as I believe some good gains will be obtained by shareholders, but fully eyes wide open at the blatant high levels of corruption. Know the majority of posters here share these views.

Hi Itsaponzi,

Think you are becoming confused sir, GKP are putting into the pipe to supply local refiners, any small slipstream into the main export pipe stream might not come from us, in fact I'd be surprised if it did as our crude is very heavy ie: higher sg, which might solidify. Ideally its the normal running grade which is a Kurdy mix. That way it all becomes instantly marketable once enough arrives in Turkey.

Lets not forget that there is a pretty long time from starting to feed the pipeline and having full tankage in Turkey ready for export. We can pretty much guarantee that the Turkish tankage facility is at a low inventory level , so as long as the parties in discussion have an understanding that shipping exports wont start till agreement reached, nothing to prevent a two way flow until that time .Turkish tankage is millions of barrels.

In effect this means GKP might decide to fully start up as we will need every barrel of crude if supplying local refineries (bet its filling their tankage to max first), while supplying exports. Bethe same for all the other kurdy oilers.

Thanks for sharing Morbox,

Article talks about the slow start up which we have heard about so confirms that. However also mentioned a few other things which are new. Firstly that some progress has been achieved in talks, and secondly that talks are continuing on a trilateral basis.

Clearly with crude at $95 dollars a barrel and highly likely to remain there for the foreseeable the cake is big enough now for all to share, even mentions Uncle Sam's input who also want exports as a way of keeping a lid on global crude prices.

Good news for all Kurdy producers.

Being open about things last night when the price was 110p really was an excellent time to take out some serious shorts.(not me). We saw some hefty after hrs trades reported. This is due to some excellent GKP related news, but nothing concrete about the real biggie...thats Turkish crude imports.

So knowing that prices often drift on limited news I think the shorts were well timed.

However shorts have to be re purchased, so in effect its a share price increase in the bank, unless they can be timed with some negative news or sentiment. Good news is share price is now artificially low as a result of this so take advantage for the longer term if you can. This is the biggest fear of shorters, price rebounding and they burn.

Got to start crude flows at minimum rate, not any high rates at all and we would have plenty of recycle on the feed pumps.

This is because the line when it becomes completely hydraulically full with liquid moving forward with exert a forward thrusting pressure head of at least 3 times the supply pressure which can burst lines.

Remember what's in the line is in effect a product mix and has been sat in the hot sun all summer, so wouldn't be surprised to find many gas pockets within the line which will most certainly cause pressure surges and hence the need for min fill rates. Really is no gain for rushing this process and must be done steadily.

Hope this explains things.

Putting everything into the pipeline is excellent news, raking in about 350K dollars per day as their share is also good numbers and significantly changes things with this stock .

I would support company expenditure in additional tankage which normally has a water draw off facility.

If we are supplying a refinery direct they should have de-salting and water draw off facilities as standard.

Gone now are a lot of going bankrupt worries and more likely to see a fair bit of company wealth while we await resumption of main export flows.

The fact that GKP are now getting customers for significant quantities of crude will be a shot across the bows for those hoping to squeeze extra monetary advantage by crude exports to Turkey. Things are most certainly looking up for the patient shareholders here , and I'm happy to beholding a strong position. Going to be a good end to this year.

Hi NewK,

Also if there was still any serious contractual doubt looming over the companies they would not be allowed to fill. Suspect this is just grumbling or ways to score minor points and gain negotiation advantages, just smoke and mirrors. You don't put crude oil down a pipeline you don't intend to start up....

If we had a crude export pipeline that we believed in any way might fail under full load we would "pig the line with fresh water" then pressure test it with that. That way if you do get a leak its much easier to repair, and even easier to clean up any water leakage rather than crude oil everywhere.

This is a start up , end of. Now where's that dry powder . Mr. Market clearly agrees.

Just need to take an overview of the pipeline situation.

Testing.....You never test any pipeline with air....think of a pressurised gun, same thing with any vessel ..you always use water or another liquid . Know of workers who have been killed when a pipe held pressurised N2 and suddenly released. Might well use a light flushing oil/fluxant to get things moving.

Lets take a step back here....we know all parties want to get the crude moving again to Turkey, but its all about the money, however as crude prices rise the ability to compromise more also increases. Lets not forget, that talks have still been going on between all parties, just not shouted about.

Wasn't long ago that Iraq asked Turkey to resume crude imports as a sign of "good faith", while Turkey also increased water flows to Iraq in a similar vein.

So "testing actual flows", nicely meets that request, just dressed up a bit different. Also will actually make it much easier right now to get the crude moving while daily temps are high than waiting till a future time when it might not move at all.

Its a clear sign of co-operation and things should move soon.

I don't believe the current halt has anything to do with pipeline damage. However if agreement gets reached its an ideal 2 way face saving excuse.

Of course one of the underlying questions which we wont get answered is, have those who know (or contacts of such) if talks on opening pipeline which might be bearing promise have indirectly buying this stock.

In a corrupt region, I doubt if anyone on here would be surprised as such and its certainly beyond any company to control as we've seen quite a bit of similar action in the past.

So might well be time to use that stored powder, and certainly not a time to sell for a small gain.

Bigger things are afoot it seems.

We can all agree that GKP is treading water currently, certainly holding its own with the Turkish export route currently unavailable.

Hopefully now we do see some accord between Erbil and Baghdad, it must be time to explore the overland route to the gulf. Part of it has a damaged pipeline, might be a good time while we are in limbo to start putting it back into full working order. Would certainly spur on Turkey to reach agreement on exports.

Clearly pressure to complete a pipeline deal growing on all sides now. Expect the pressure coming from Uncle Sam was requested by Kurdish officials who find themselves with no place to turn to.

As the Saudis and Russians reduce production crude oil prices are already responding ahead of the coming winter, so its also in western interests in several ways to see the pipeline reopened.

Iranian influence on Iraq may be a bit of a sticking point, but they are not the majority.

Will crude prices high and likely to climb further even with the pipeline re opening the prospects for GKP could quite easily go from stagnation to blooming with a single act.

Those names certainly bring back some memories, and bah bah black sheep.

Can any of you remember the cry "black smoke" , and its significance.

Few positions being taken today it seems. Is there some news out there that we are not party to.

Some great posts Kheldar, thanks for sharing...So GKP are keeping all the monies collected currently and putting it against debts owed.

More excellent news which certainly safeguards our company and is the most cost effective process.

Hi Rogthegamer,

They have come a long way already, just need to go a bit further and once everyone starts to see the benefits they will never look back. They are indeed fortunate to have such decent reserves of crude oil. Many countries in the world in the same positions of development would love just a tenth of what Iraq has. However they do know they have to sell the oil, so I dont think we will wait that long because all sides have made their positions clear, just need a bit of flexibility and it could be flowing by next week.

Hi Armasmaximillian,

I completely disagree with your comments that "the Western idea that Iraq has lost billions is ridiculous".

However this is from a factual western standpoint. Agree the oil is still in the ground so still has value, however we must agree that alternative energy is starting to make oil not so essential, and that with the huge reserves that Iraq has it will take many , many years to extract it all.

Take other successful Arab nations who are selling plenty of oil, but used it to massively improve the lives and living conditions of their populations, while investing a good chunk of that income to insure future prosperity for its people. To build top notch modern cities with all the associated transport, communication and medical requirements takes many years indeed, along with proper jobs not quango ones. Time is not on their side, they needed to start that process yesterday. I've stayed in many Arab cities and the facilities and service are indeed superb.

Now compare that right now with what you are saying ..The oil is in the ground, well they cant eat oil, oil in the ground is no good if you are unemployed , children are starving and require ongoing medical care and treatment.

Also no money to pay the rent, and suffering in torrid 50 degree heat. Indeed a nightmare that is transformable.

Clearly when you consider this your comments against my views I doubt you will still agree with what you published.

However to enjoy the full benefits of society, with housing, medical care jobs etc, you have to treat the oil companies right and give them due dollar as per contracts, never try to swindle them or water down agreements and pay 100% on time. This way other companies will look in and see how they are being treated and also want in invest in Iraq and Kurdistan.