Member Info for belgrano

Yes Theoryman, I picked up on exactly the same things. Almost saying that the FGI officials are actually ignorant of all the small but important details of the Kurdistan oil contracts.?

This is despite spouting garbage for years that our contracts are illegal, they don't even know how they have been set up and who gets what. Really shows up the politicians and FGI officials as actually spouting hot air for years and not knowing what our contract entails.

Why say these comments comes to my mind...I expect its because now they are being discussed they've actually had to come forward and admit they don't really know so are asking our representative to carefully explain. Will probably find payments not that far removed from some in the south, and if they had even taken the time and trouble to do some background research for which they are being paid very handsomely indeed for , could probably have sorted out the issue 10 years ago and avoided lengthy court battles.

Could really struggle to buy 5M shares, Mr. Market and the institutions takes no prisoners when it smells the blood in the water of an over exposed position. Expect the big boys will be contracted first to see if they will release some decent blocks of stock...Failing that if they go to market to fill the order it'll cost them a pretty penny to buy that stock.

I'd wager no sympathy here at all....In fact the complete opposite.

I would still like our company to invest in additional storage tankage, yes some really large tanks will cost probably 5M,

however its a case of "use just once and they've paid for themselves easily.

Know we could not have run at max though out this pipeline shut in, but could have certainly have filled the tanks.

Just gives so much more flexibility, who's to say the export line might leak due to earthquake or man made means, could also charge others for crude storage. I'm thinking of a few million barrels of storage, not a couple of hundred thousand.

Once you scale up size the costs crash.

In my humble opinion its certainly not a time to take profits (not that there's anything wrong with that), as a lot of official news yet to be released which could propel our share price forward a fair bit more.

I'm looking to have confirmed the following.

Payment method for outstanding invoices.

Exporting crude to Turkey via pipeline to commence.

Contracts recognised and fully accepted by SOMO pending alterations if needed to legislation to fully legitimise them.

Right payment for exported crude, and new established timeline for those payments.

When the money then starts to be received our company will then decide how to distribute it.

Still hurdles to cross and essential to keep fingers in pockets during this period. However if the above works out most shareholders will then probably not want to sell, as it will be doing so well.

Still plenty of risk, but clearly Mr. Market believes the above process has started.

When our company does start to receive serious income as a serious shareholder I'd like to see it distributed 3 ways.

firstly R and D, secondly share buyback announced in advance and over several months as an ongoing process. Then divis being given to holders.

This combination I believe would result in a very decent capital growth in shareholder value while increasingly rewarding stock holders. This done over a decent time frame to help stability.

Does appear that after a good few months of waiting shareholders might be on the cusp of being rewarded, but foolish to count any chickens yet as lots of things still might happen to scupper things completely.

However if they do go the way many here hope I believe it might turn out a foolish move to take any quick profits as you might well leave a hell of a lot on the table and subsequently live to regret those actions especially after holding so long.

Just what was being discussed the last few days, Iraqi failure to honour contracts and pay on time knocking confidence in investors eyes, also a major factor in why our current share price is a fifth of what it should be.

Dutch Ambassador puts them straight...Worth a read.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/people-places/15102023

US has not hit Iran, it has hit Syria and at Syrian groups backed by Iran that have been firing at them for days.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-latest-israel-sends-tanks-into-gaza-as-troops-complete-ground-incursion-12978800

Agree it will cause a spike in Crude prices

I believe the united stand that the Kurdish Oil companies are taking is not something that's just happened now that the court case that has been dragging on for many years has been finalised.

These actions of jointly withholding crude exports while ticking along nicely suppling the local "marketeers" , have long been discussed and plans drawn up in which they expect to succeed in. Rising crude prices in general are aiding their cause and the huge "unfilled export pipeline penalties", which are being accrued daily is the kicker which Iraq cannot ignore much longer. Throw in the local unrest, and it wont be long until a compromise is reached. Believe it will be a compromise with legitimised contracts not a capitulation from the federal government.

I would also agree that both of you are correct. Any oilfield in the world that falls into a certain countries boundary's belongs to that country and its people. However exploration and extraction contracts (if exploration is successful), give the company certain rights to extract those found products (oil and gas), for agreed percentages normally per barrel. Clearly what you find and in what quantity must reflect in that companies potential recovery quantities.

In extreme cases be it champagne crude that flows naturally at huge rates out of a well, or bitumen shale oil that has to be mechanically dug out. Clearly different values get attached here, as the amount of topside plant required is utterly different, also the time aspect of how long it will take to achieve decent flowrates and the difficulty of extraction.

Certainly our company comes up trumps here, the big negative which is put on our company is actually due to the untrustworthy nature of the local Politian's and volatility of where our fields are situated.

If our oil fields had been in the UK. GKP would not exist, nor would it have even got the chance to explore. If for some reason it had I'm not even going to speculate on what the share price might be.

However there is fair chance now things have come to a head that our contracts will be fully recognised this would clearly remove our biggest obstacle to company development, and attract the sharks without delay.

)

Hi Phat,

No mate, long and strong, even looking at topping up further.

Please let me explain.

This is because although I believe the federal politicians are acting not in the countries best interest for all its people, the over arching goal for them is keeping their personal gravy train running.

Believe in a strange way the dreadful middle east unrest, has certainly started to stir things up in Iraq, and when there is a possibility that this unrest may effect their personal gravy train issues may in fact suddenly get resolved much faster than otherwise would have happened.

They don't care about the Kurdish oilers and huge numbers of unemployed, but when those protests start they don't want to be in the rifle sights of any protest. Far better to agree quickly and get the crude moving again and the oil companies spending again, and most importantly the population busy working again rather than laid off and protesting.

Think we may have caught a break here which otherwise might not have happened.

Https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/241020232

Hi Phat, thanks for posting, I've only reposted your article that you found. I actually believe that article gives us exactly nothing new..

Its actually the federal government that are stopping exports, because they are in effect saying "you are free to to export, but we wont pay you what's in your agreement".

All blame is on these idiotic, overpaid, under educated (for proper oil management) family appointed politically motivated politicians.

They complain that 7Billion dollars wasted while their own population goes without work and country slips further into debts, while they prosper. However they've had several months to iron out this easily foreseen issue and done nothing deliberately. Hypocrites the lot of them, while hiding behind a cleverly designed law to give a pittance in payment to kurdish oilers which they know is totally unacceptable, while at the same time publicly saying they are working hard towards a solution while doing nothing intentionally.

As the oil companies have laid off non essential staff this can only add to the unrest.

They actually have only themselves to blame as if they paid the oil companies as per internationally struck and mutually agreed agreements for taking the risk, finding and then developing the oil fields we would not be in this position right now.

The Arab leaders got greedy thinking they could cheat and steal from the oil companies and originally succeeded with payments not sent and then trying to come up with new payment formulas which really had one objective and that was to enrich themselves further as the expense of the oil companies and their backers.

Their actions poison relationships. Many investors here now think what they can take out of this stock then run for the hills, rather than a long term dividend yielding investment.

Not all parties are to blame here so not blaming "all Arabs either", just that I cannot find any innocent ones in power currently in this part of the world.

Have dealt with many Egyptians in the past and also found that they devise many novel ways to try and obtain the extra dollar from clients, which in general UK workers do not. Been informed that Iraq is much worse.

When you report very old news it actually works against your intension. It means investigation was undertaken with due diligence and that unsurmountable obstacles or skeletons were revealed which stopped progress. Every investor on this board knows these facts already so please post any new news you may have or refrain. Very best regards sir.

Completely correct CCC. I refrain completely on any wild share price presumptions because they are certainly pie in the sky.

I take a 2 year view normally , and things with our company are actually going pretty well currently. Our CEO was dying to say the current production figure during the recent excellent interview but cannot due to RNS constraints.. It was clear to hear. Certainly light at the end of the tunnel now, as Baghdad can most certainly see how it can make a lot more money if they just change their rules to accommodate the kurdy oilers as per contracts. They will certainly not want to appear to breach those contractual obligations as it will have repercussions with other investments in Iraq.

All the while they dither losses mount and unused pipeline penalties accumulate, while the kurdy oilers are selling more oil by tanker and pipeline. They also hold a united front which prevents "divide and conquer".

Certainly not out of the woods yet, but in a much better position than we were in late spring.

I appreciate all the views on here, for me looking at the bigger picture and a stand out post was from space tomato.

I'm just going to repost it below.

So the pipeline is all ready and waiting, As per Baghdad rules normal crude payment is $6 per barrel, so they are in essence correct but also know themselves its ridiculously lowball. So Kurdistan officials will be drafting law to change the rules this week to enable payments for exported crude at a upgraded level...Oil companies hold the whip hand here and want "payment as per contracts", nothing less. Also agreement for future prompt payment and a mechanism for payment for crude already produced and sold.

Its quite achievable , and the fines being levelled, because the pipeline is not full and the huge lost revenue will surly concentrate the mind. That's the next step for us. Things are actually moving along quite nicely now.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) negotiating delegation will return to Baghdad next week to meet with officials from the two Iraqi ministries of finance and oil," Hunar Jamal, spokesman for the ministry, told Rudaw.

"Next week's negotiations with the two ministries are to draft a joint bill to be submitted to parliament in order to amend the articles of the general budget law related to the method of determining the share of the Kurdistan Region and payment of oil companies."

(...)

د. "Another point that is likely to be amended is the clause related to the payment of financial entitlements of oil companies in the Kurdistan Region, which Baghdad has set the amount of six dollars for the production of one barrel of oil and a small amount," he said.

According to the 2023 budget law, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance must pay the financial entitlements of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) oil companies, but according to the criteria followed by the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

Very pleased with update, he correctly stated that production was 33k bopd at last announcement with plans to increase.

Bet he would love to have declared what it actually is now, however that's market sensitive news and must be RNS'd.

Good prudence from a CEO demonstrated. Expect an update soon.

I'm not into wild share numbers but one thing slowly at a time, however he indicated that discussions were taking place this week and clearly the oil producers sticking together have major clout. In the meantime we cover all costs are are increasing production all the time, so pressure is off the oilers.

Good to here we have no water breakthrough on the wells as we decrease pressure as flows gently increased.

Much more crude being sold for cash locally. Fully agree there, what we are actually seeing is a resumption of the export trucking operation .

Has the Iraqi local refiners suddenly started ramping up production and require more supplies on top of existing?, I'm very sceptical of this.

Well its all under the "local refiner's umbrella", and in truth the road tankers might start in the general direction. Bet only a small number actually arrive.

Who cares???? we are operating a "cash and carry" operation.

Look at the maths 24t at 7 barrels a ton is 168 barrels, buy at $30 sell at $80 cheaply and thats $8400 dollars profit per load. This is in a region where labour/driver costs are the cheapest in the world and fuel dirt cheap.

Quick turnaround to Turkey, 2 drivers and 3 days return.

Little wonder sales are rip roaring...and in fairness all that diesel req may cause the local tinpots to increase production a tad.

Very unlikely to see this demand dropping off, more like the opposite when we find whos doing the trucking...

I think we all know the answer there.

If the high level of shorts is correct at 4.9M, its going to give them a hell of a headache trying to close them once Mr. Market sniffs a wounded position, it could potentially become a bloodbath, as every trader in London buys stock knowing they will have to purchase such a huge amount of stock, which must force up the price further.

They are after a quiet opportunity to off load but with the current volatile climate and resulting rising crude prices the tide is already running against them, and strong possibility of turning into a torrent.

Another thing that makes me think after reading the Rudlaw articles is why Turkey would now publicly state that its "ready for crude oil".

Well privately I suspect its been ready for Crude oil for about 200 days while it held out on terms and conditions and a deal on the two legal issues.

Now it seems that's been sorted (which is not a small thing), it sees itself being continually blamed for the delays which sits well with those who are happy to see this drag on for ages while they have alternative objectives.

So they now produce the "ready for crude" statement. This will give those that privately don't want a settlement, but publicly are all "Iraqis working together" nowhere to hide.

Strongly suspect these are the very same people who spout nonsense like "contracts are illegal". Its all aimed at continued delay while two facedly having a different public image.

However we are much closer now to getting the crude to flow with contractual payments.

Believe Mr. Market is starting to think it as well, that's why generally our share price is rising.

Thanks for sharing Morbox,

Date on that was the 4th of this month so clearly someone has been sitting on their hands.

This is during a period when all the [parties are blaming each other for the holdup, I believe we can now clearly see who is the ringleader in this fiasco of stupidity and deliberately causing delays and thats the Iraqi government in Baghdad.

Latest excuses are the IOC's wanting payment as per contract and prompt payment at that.

So we've been waiting months and they didn't know about these potential snags and holdups which could have easily been resolved while we've been waiting. What rubbish, clowns in charge in Badhdad, if not clowns probably vindictive politicians bearing political grudges with other political alignments.

Bet they are currently being paid for their uselessness...and with plenty of backslapping, biscuit munching and brown envelopments for fees. ...lol..... rant over.