Member Info for belgrano

Thanks AS ...yep I'm watching.

They are all correct but in typical politicians style they are only saying half of it. IE: they want the crude flowing.

What they are not saying is Iraq wants market price for it...

Turkey wants it at discount and a say in who gets it.

Kurdistan who actually produces the crude....couldn't care less.. they know they lost the court case, now want to get it to market, but any means possible.

We do at least see clarity on the main issue , SOMO can easily market the crude from tankage in Turkey at market rates and Kurdistan will happily accept its share if sold at full price.

The snagger is Turkey , which wants on top of high crude transport costs, a say in who gets the Kurdy crude and also wants it a market discount. What we suspected all along, the fines are easily resolved...its getting crude at discount, which is the sticking point.....and why should they????

However obtains discount crude can of course line their pockets by selling it on to those same customers at market rate.

Really got to explore internal pipeline to the gulf options here....and give Turkey the ultimatum, but dont go back to them if they refuse.

Think everyone agrees that they will open the taps but on what rates and conditions...Turkey wants rates previous to the court ruling, Iraq wants market rates. In effect Turkey does not accept the ruling.

Court fees, fines, earthquake damage, all either smokescreen all sortable, however both sides finding the first points hard to come to a compromise on....All about the money.

Must admit its pretty frustrating to see politicians holding out for deals mainly based on backhanders and greed, whereas anyone here could easily sort out the issue within a day.

They seem to be blinkered by it, almost endemic in the way they have lived their lives to date. Most don't see that working together it would be a win win, because this deal can easily lead to much more co-operation with items like gas pipelines and energy that both sides need so much.

As Iraq said "start the exports as an act of faith", ..however refusal to co-operate might well lead to the refurbishment of the damaged pipeline to the gulf and take away the benefits to Turkey forever. If I was overseeing Iraqi crude exports, those repairs would have been completed ages ago, because the work isnt that much and you do need options for export and never be reliant on just one source as they have you over a barrel as we are seeing. Those repairs could be put out to contract right now and be completed before the fall.

Fully agree Morboxm, Its all about personal greed in this region, and for those who operate there including this company.

Take whatever you can and forget about the consequences. Clearly the money that was paid for the crude that we produced has been neatly trouser'd with no one stepping up to pay the companies what they are due. In the UK they would be locked up for similar actions.. In Iraq they remain in charge while the people starve, and don't care at all.

Thats why other local oilers have strong local connections like Turkey and some of its major holders.

Thanks for posting that bloomberg article.

For me there is something new there, and this is it. Its clearly the way out of this impasse.

"Ankara wants to negotiate a settlement with Iraq before the pipeline is reopened and appears willing to forgo transit revenues until it does."

Without getting drawn into details and taking an overview, we has recently seen the shorts on GKP closing, and much more positive words about re-establishing the crude exports from Turkey... Lets remember its they who shut the valves off, and they will be the ones to open them first.

The rest is smokescreen and mirrors, and is all about the money, dressed up in finger pointing and shoulder slipping of any blame....Even the earthquake disruption and inspection requirements fabrication excuses are beyond thin now.

Overall it is looking more positive and although very low the stock does seem to be accurately reflecting this with tentative rises.

Hi Thij,

That sounds rather hollow as all the evidence is that Turkey isolated the export pipeline. Either false of trying to shift blame to save face, if its the latter its good as it could mean we are going to see a resolution. As Iraq has requested that flows restart while talks are going as act of faith...that makes sense to me.

Https://bnn.network/breaking-news/president-erdogan-to-visit-iraq-for-crucial-oil-talks/

Switch on the crude pipeline and the gas pipeline will shortly follow. The west and especially Germany needs it. Ideal for GKP as well, thinking a few years ahead but certainly achievable

Also demonstrates that Turkey clearly want to get the oil flowing again. Excellent point Rog, about the minions having already done a lot of the base groundwork, and its then up to the main man to been portrayed as the deal maker that gets things sorted.

Best news we've seen in a month. Especially with the stock prices so low, its beyond tempting.

The last line of the report...

According to the senior source of the Iraqi Oil Ministry, a number of new contracts have been signed to sell Kurdistan oil with a number of international companies.

There we have it...the real crux of the issue exposed....Nothing wrong with that most of us would agree......Buts its not what has been happening.. that is, Crude bought at ludicrously cheap prices , sold to favoured (and not Arab friendly) countries like Israel , where not all of the crude is used, but secondary deals done for those brown envelopes to mystery clients.

Certainly looks very promising, Iraq has fallen well short on its Opec quotas for a while now, so has a strong case for increasing it over that quota when eventually things get sorted out.

We know this region has some of the cheapest crude extractions costs around so should be able to produce at decent margins.

For myself as well as holding a reasonable chunk here, I'm also holding a bag of dry powder ready, because as this is a pretty large company with good liquidity, I recon once crude export news does happen (and not another false dawn) , we will have a small window of opportunity to top up as the stock price rises.

Fully agree with all your points mate. Even the 80K BOPD from Iraq which was flowing into the pipeline adds up to 173M per month at $70 per barrel prices. So Iraq is not immune, and they still have to support Kurdistan from the budget, which must really be hurting.

Common sense dictates that its actually in every ones interest to get the crude moving again, and the sooner the better.

Good spot Phat thanks for sharing.

Iraq and Kurdistan have an abundance of gas, even our facilities give off a large amount. We also have countries like Germany and Turkey with gas shortfalls and both don't want to be Russian dependant anymore.

Longer term there is a need for more gas into Europe, and a pipeline is the best way in the long term.

In the meantime need to prove they can work together with crude exports. Daft really why pipeline spat not already sorted as the are loosing far more per month than what they can ever gain. ..

However I suspect its really about the back handers which SOMO control prevents.

We are seeing reports that the short positions are being closed which might well account for the small share price rise.

These experts must believe that the share price has currently bottomed out and that a deal is a high possibility for them to cash out now. Know these speculators are no fools and probably have the inside track in order to risk so much money, which bodes well for current investors here who don't have access to any info bar which is press reported.

I see the share price of our sister company OPTI, has unfortunately dropped below 6p now following the recent update, in which a large amount of unsold stock was written down. Knowing that we also manufactured a great deal of stock a while back and also unsold will a similar loss be reported here as well.

Lets hope sales really pick up fast.

Good to read the RNS about the launch into Italy...from the RNS below.

The announcement follows the launch of AxisBiotix-Ps™ in Spain, after prior authorisation was received in March. Building on the initial launch in the UK where customer retention rates have remained above 80%,1 the launch of AxisBiotix-Ps into another European market is the continuation in the commercialisation strategy.

Well the customer retention rates are indeed first class.. but a clear absence here is actual sales figures. We've seen it before when they are not mentioned its probably very poor. No good having great retention if you have less than a thousand subscribers, increasing demographic size with locations actually increases costs.