Member Info for belgrano

I agree with your reasoning chief that warrants are a mixed bag, however I do see a couple of good upsides to this strategy.

Firstly by offering this incentive it keeps interest payments lower than they would have been so preserves cash flow for longer so potentially no need for further rights issues.

Also having a 20p excise price says that there is a good chance that it will be achieved and exceeded. If we take Mr.Markets view on what the company stock is worth right now its 14p a pop. That's potentially a great 30% or more uplift to exceed the 20p excise price and in addition the option to purchase is only there for a couple of years .

With the new acquisition gives the ability to put our stock at the fore front on the shelves, and in effect gain a lot more marketeers by having the acquisition. Great to see it coming to pass.

One clear market observation is we didn't see much positives from before yesterdays meeting, expect we wont see much negative after it either. Mr. Market it seems was right.

Dont think we can read much into yesterdays initial meeting between the IOC's and the KRG as reported from the KRG's spokes person alone. This is bound to reflect one side of the discussions, although it was reported from the IOC's that they require hard numbers agreed by SOMO and its now puppets the KRG .

They ask for a timely recommencing of the crude pipeline but do not provide hard data and figures to do so. Don't even know if they have pencilled in a hard timeframe either, not that its not been agreed but just not mentioned.

I expect Iraq to come begging Turkey for water from the dams soon, but expect they will this year be disappointed as quite frankly they all act like overpaid idiots, setting themselves up for grand meetings but after sitting on hands for months despite saying they all have full accord cannot even produce any acceptable or agreed figs or timeframe...Lol rant over...hope a hell of a lot more was said than actually reported . Be nice to hear something from the IOC reps, also a type of joint statement.

Nice post Theoryman, why is Badhdad so worried about the fixed costs and having a price per barrel upper limit. Unless they don't want to actually reward heavy bonus/stage/finders fees/ or other clear payments that everyone in the west would see a clear bribery going to Kurdish officials, but being reclaimed as expenses from Baghdad. SOMO does it, and they know Kurdistan does it as well.

Once you see that it does make things easier to understand. Their own corruption is actually hindering exporting crude via the pipeline. We know Todd was most certainly not whiter than white andexpect all the IOC's are the same...its how business is done in Iraq.

With the IOC's being asked this tomorrow, you can bet they have plenty to say. I suspect they know three times as much on crude production that all the SOMO board put together.

We will welcome your insights and suggestions during these discussions,” read an email sent to the IOCs by the ministry and which Rudaw English has seen.

I actually don't expect breakthrough news to come out of the meeting tomorrow, suspect most sensible investors here also view it the same. However it is the first meeting in a while and clearly in this game of brinkmanship Baghdad as we expected has had to change the amount of contractual payments, or at least put through the bill to allow it.

However its also not out of the question that terms may be acceptable to the IOC's if an understanding and commitment to regular and prompt payment is achieved. Might also be a staggered backpay mechanism for monies owed moving forward. So its not inconceivable that exports start again and we receive additional payments for our arears. Investors who like dividends like myself would be happy with that.

Also feel that GKP has slipped off the radar for many uk investors after such a long period of inactivity, so once we see some decent RNS's, confirming agreements and exports I do think we will see some piling back in here which might give flashbacks to the initial oil strike days.

I certainly am not complaining about market apathy currently with this stock for above reasons but am utilising the opportunity to enhance my investment. Lull before the storm comes to mind.

This is very good news, after studying how much compensation will have to be awarded to the IOC's via contract terms Iraq is now changing its "files", at the earliest opportunity to enable enhanced payments to be awarded.

This is due to happen next month, could have been later this year if they wanted more delay.

Also this will fully legalize contracts... and enable the enhanced payments to the IOC's.

Itsaponzi has written..."nearly 10months on and no nearer to a solution"....Think sir you need to think twice before posting twaddle...Or are you paid for it?

Still suspicious because we know how devious they can be, but with a meeting due tomorrow they do seem at last to be moving towards a conclusion, which will result in a better position than before the pipeline wasstopped.

Lets just take a small step back here and see whats been achieved and how far we have come as a company.

Still continuing to supply local market and able to keep head above water.

Pipeline -Turkey has confirmed its ready for use, has agreed transport tarriff and ready to receive and export crude. In addition its putting on pressure on Iraq, for non use of the pipeline, as it has many companies tied up in the crude export business from kurdistan.

Iraq also needs Turkish water so must agree to export.

Rebels causing shipping delays so Iraq also needs to export Kurdish crude via Turkey.

Iraq now understands why the IOC's have premium contracts as apposed to normal Iraqi ones from established oil fields.

Iraq now has transparency on the IOC contracts which it clearly did not have before, and is now making increased financial offers to the IOC's...clearly room to negotiate.

Comments like "exports are illegal have stopped.

Iranian strikes inside Iraq, has caused even those with Iranian sympathies to distance themselves from Iran.

Iraq needs the income, and agreements state that Kurdistan must export 400K bopd to obtain its budget share. Actually believe this is due to those in Badhdad, not wanting to export all the crude from the south and leave Kurdish oilfields full, or only partly tapped.

OIC's sticking together and already stating that they feel confident exports will start before long.

Meeting date already set for this week with a view to reacting export agreements.

At last the IOC's have actually been invited to participate in the initial negotiations in getting the Kurdistan crude flowing again to Turkey which Iraq now finds its self desperate to achieve. Already some initial compensation figures are being touted which if an opening gambit from the Iraqi team of $20 representing a offer to increase payments of 320% of whats currently being paid to current contracts in established oilfields and is a dreadful show of solidarity to offer so much before talks have even started. I'd love to be participating on the side of the IOC's right now, as they know their contracts are watertight and Turkey is putting enormous pressure on Iraq thats its desperate for water. Turkish companies wont be happy with a poor deal after being deliberately put out of pocket since spring of last year so unlikely to accept anything bar contractual terms.

Guys don't sell on any spikes tomorrow and leave yourselves short, serious shorter blood in the water now and expect frantic trading. A great day awaits for the long term investors here.

Iraq has actually well underperformed on its OPEC crude oil quota for many years. Its only recently that they are able to achieve it. None of the OPEC countries will really care if Iraq exceeds it for a good while as they are only making up on years of shortfall while the big players like Saudi used the income to prosper and build serious wealth management Iraq is viewed as needing some serious catching up to do. Don't anyone get hung up on Iraq's quota at all.

Errrr what planet are you on Itsaponzi, no nation can afford to waste 1B $ a month just to try and stagnate one side of its country while at the same time bailing them out with billion dollar handouts. Happy to hear negative viewpoints if backed with solid reason, but trying to spook investors just because you are trying to get the share price lower to buy back points at another type of investor entirely.

Baghdad, now knows what it has to do to tweak its laws to enable the IOC's to be paid under contractual terms.

The IOC's clearly hold the whip hand, they are ticking over nicely while Iraq is loosing a billion a month plus pipeline penalty payments and is under pressure from Turkey which also has many intrests in getting the crude flowing.

In addition the IOC's are owed many millions fro the crude they have already produced and has been sold.. This is not in dispute. However neither Kurdistan or Iraq can really afford to pay them back, so will have to suitably compensate the IOC's in order to get the crude flowing again.

One solution is fully recognised contracts coupled with agreed regular payment mechanism from Iraq, all signed sealed and water tight.

The "cost of this buckshee, where backhanders are rife", might be forfeiture of a good part of the owed income.

In my book as long as new payments given promptly going forward with recognised contracts might be a cost or loss worth absorbing...what we never got we do not miss...and if it gets the crude flowing GKP would then propel itself into one of the most sought after companies around.

Fully agree swell, too many times we have seen blaggard Iraqi bureaucrats claiming agreement amongst themselves to solve the oil export situation but offering those that are doing all the work nothing or something they know full well is way short of anything agreeable to the IOC's.

Require transparent concrete statements backed with full agreements rather than hot air politicians playing for the newsreels.

We live in hope but biased with reality.

Iran firing missiles into Iraq without provocation has caused Baghdad Elite with certain sympathies to Iran to choose sides. No longer can they just delay or push pencils of inaction, clearly when push comes to shove they are Iraqis.

This will speed up kurdish exports to Turkey much faster than any biscuit munching session.

Not a time to sell guys...I'm going to buy more now.

Yep while continuing to mount losses of $1B a month plus penalties for unused pipeline of another $1M a day. Well it seems the bribery payments (ahhh sry completion or stage bonuses), have been arranged. Now they know which way they are slowly heading. Little wonder how Iraq is so poor when you have so many fraudsters dealing with blatant corruption in charge. Everyone sits on their hands, while the legal tweaks could have been achieved last year, I doubt they've even put together the timeframe with the draft changes required into firm action.

Not only do they deserve to have their salaries withheld, but put into prison for corruption and acting in the interests of a foreign state.

Ahhh more light into making transparency, so IOC's get $21 , but now we hear $ 32 is now the accepted amount on which SOMO is going to sign off on.

If you have been following previous posts its clear Chinese companies are happy to pay whatever bribes are required by SOMO officials in order to secure huge oilfield contracts.

Seems to me another sweetheart deal is done where SOMO is going to take 11% extra cut in bribes to sign off Kurdistan oil contracts as fully legal and then let the crude exports flow.

Not going to give an opinion here...just facts as I see it.

Latest crude markets are becoming spooked with Brent now north of $80 with nearly a 4% jump and rising.

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude

Don't believe its the current action, but what Mr. Market thinks might happen next , with shipping being disrupted. I actually believe bigger powers are at play here, certainly Yeman did not build those missiles, with the finger strongly pointing at Iran which is the regional power and in bed with Russia. I believe they are actually responsible for not getting our crude flowing as its politicians with strong Iranian backing in power in Iraq which is one of our main hurdles.

Along with crude disruption also disrupted is the flow of of LPG , at a time when Europe is about to face its coldest period with some grim forecasts looming. These facts have not been overlooked and I suspect a major factor in the starting of disruption to shipping, which many fear will soon escalate to more direct Iranian action in the straight and the horn.

World timing for these actions is ideal for the puppet masters supplying rebels and any group with a cause with relatively easy to operate fire and forget weapons. Also as major crude producers they have the most to gain.

Despite being well paid SOMO officials are corrupt, and deliberate inactivity takes place until these "reward payments" are made. We are certainly not talking about a small brown envelope here, but excessive bribes. ..Now XOM has exited from Iraq, we see more revelations appearing on what happens ..little wonder the Chinese are just walking into a well planned and part developed operation already producing 500K BOPD...Even $8 for BOPD to my mind seems to high.

Just read this extract below, or better still the whole article.

there were three key elements to the risk/reward matrix that formed the basis of those negotiations between ExxonMobil and the Oil Ministry. These were cohesion, security, and streamlining, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com at the time. "Cohesion related to ensuring the facilities that are connected to the CSSP are completed in order and in full, security related to the on-the-ground security of personnel and to the basic soundness of the business and legal practices involved in the agreement, and streamlining meant that any deal should continue as agreed, regardless of any change in government in Iraq," he said. "The basic problem was that the [Oil] Ministry and other officials connected with the CSSP expected to receive commissions for anything they did, which might look a lot like bribery if they ever came to light, but if the payments weren't made then the project simply would not have progressed," he added. "The standard commission here is 15 percent, but it can rise to 30 percent or more, so with the development cost having risen to US$53 billion, Exxon[Mobil] was looking at under-the-counter payments of nearly US$8 billion, and that's difficult to hide in any accounts, even if it wanted to do so," he told OilPrice.com.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Replaces-Western-Energy-Firms-in-Iraqs-Supergiant-Oil-Field.amp.html

With shipping being attacked in the gulf and the resulting jump in crude oil price, a lot of shipping is now being diverted around Africa to avoid the conflict area. This will cause crude loading delays as shipping times will now take longer or not at all. It is now becoming an international issue. This will probably effect Iraq's ability to export from the gulf.

Even more pressing need for SOMO to commission the over land export route to Turkey and bypass the gulf route.

This will further increase pressure to get the crude flowing again, and the costs for not doing so.

Iraq knows full well it cannot force the IOC's to change contracts. It also knows and accepts the now transparent price rewards (with completely different risk factors) from its own contracts on established oilfields. That is $8 compared to $21 for kurdish IOC's.

It has not stated it is unfair, but also understands that Turkish companies are large beneficiaries. This is why Turkey is putting so much pressure on Iraq right now along with huge financial losses and unfilled pipeline penalties exceeding 1M per day and approaching 10 B $ for lost production to the pipeline.

It is exploring how it can tweak its legal payment system to allow payment at contractual rates and will then give the arears payments due. They know they cannot win now Turkey is holding out on critical water flows, just sorting out the legal payment mechanism.