Member Info for belgrano

Trouble is in Iraq, you have people in charge who quite honestly haven't a clue what they are doing, only given the position through family connections and in most cases rarely do anything unless in rewards themselves in way of bribe or commissions. They shake hands munch biscuits, and talk constant rollocks, and quite frankly as long as they are all right couldn't give a fig if the rest of the population are unpaid and staving.

Idiots and zealots, dangerous combination.

Now the Iraqi cabinet is scrabbling to find a replacement investor after shell pulled out......

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/180220241

Shell citing company policy change in investing in chemicals processes....rubbish.

But doesn't stop investment elsewhere ...

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/shell-commits-investment-to-transform-germanys-energy-and-chemicals-park-rheinland-24857#:~:text=Shell%20Commits%20Investment%20to%20Transform%20Germany's%20Energy%20and%20Chemicals%20Park%20Rheinland,-30%2DJan%2D2024&text=Shell%20Deutschland%20GmbH%20has%20reached,Energy%20and%20Chemicals%20Park%20Rheinland.

Real reason is Baghdad failing to honour contracts like the Kurdish IOC's and corruption.

Only themselves to blame, thinking they are something special, but other companies don't want to do business with them. About time they looked in the mirror. "They reap what they sow".

Lack of water is clearly hurting Baghdad badly, attached just goes to demonstrate the stupidity of many of the Iraqi politicians, Iran is also suppressing water flow but no talk of sanctions there..

All they need to do is get the Kurdish crude flowing to Turkey, Turkey increased water flows to Iraq last year " as a sign of goodwill", but the stupid Iraqi politicians just took advantage of them and didn't resolve the crude issue.

I doubt that " goodwill " will be shown now.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/20022024

At least the Iraqi rule changes are due to be changed to allow more enhanced payments for IOC's. However think we all know that although its some light we are far from out of the tunnel. Clearly foreseen delaying tactics which could have been completed this time last year. Does have overtures of previous post.

Mind you might seem a fair payment to those who have looked at the contracts in depth, but not to a trouble making politician with Iranian leanings.

Even getting the rules changed, does not mean that they decide to pay, just means they could pay.

If fact they could pay now if they really wanted to "pending rule changes by the federal court", which is loaded with corrupt people.

When oil companies produce crude and not get paid for that production and worse still then find that Baghdad tries to alter the contracts it has much bigger ramifications for their international reputation.

This is at a time when they are trying to get western aid for their oil and chemical projects off the ground.

Expecting bribes all the time makes business impossible to western companies.

They will continue to remain among the poorest on the planet with really good income in sales but self greed, infighting, internal violence and extremism may well find that they not only remain firmly on the btm of the list, but as the planet continues to overheat they will pay an even higher price.

Anywhere else in Europe with those local crude resources Shell would have willingly doubled the investment and employed three times as many local workers.

They actually deserve what's coming to them, but a we know its the poor that will lose out, while the embezzlers enjoy unearned extravagance behind walled enclosures.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2537896-shell-exits-talks-over-major-petchem-plant-in-iraq

Nice post Kheldar, especially interesting is the money is now not a loan. This signifies a sea change in relations and co- operation between the KRG and Baghdad. Something concrete to build on for sure.

Iraq will be paying us directly what the KRG was, so no increase in contractual terms.

However it could be a much more reliable payment mechanism, with contractual agreements fully endorsed by Baghdad.

Start up them wells, and start dishing out a goodly chunk of the 80M in the bank to shareholders here. Or even better give forward notice to dish out say 50M in a couple of months.

Then let the market decide....whats that burning we ask.

Just putting some factual data out for 2023

Iraq oil production 4.43M Population 42M

Saudi oil production 10.48 Population 33.4M

Clearly some huge disconnects there, facts which are not lost on the OPEC leaders.

Exactly right sir, investors get hung up on quotas thinking in some way Kurdistan production will be curtailed in order to meet some target where they havn't been meeting their OPEC target for years.

What they mean is they stand by the principles of OPEC, and up to now havn't really complained as unable to reach it anyway. These facts are firmly understood by some of the other Arab leaders, who have be able to substantially grow their economies and have huge cash reserves while Iraq has struggled for years. If Iraq asks for more it will be granted.

I actually believe that Turkey is key into resolving Iraq's problems, although some judiciary in Baghdad would rather side with Iran which has been the cause of a power struggle there. What Iraq and Kurdistan need, is decent electrical security moving forward coupled by a gas export line. Turkey holds the key here and is ideally placed to aid them, due to its ability to obtain western help and equipment.

Just need to demonstrate to all that they stand true to all contracts even if in the light of day now they were not the best that might be achieved now, but the best that could be achieved at that time.

Certainly not an anti Turkey website al all, we all know all three parties, Kurdistan, Turkey, are most certainly not whiter than white, indeed our our board at the time was also corrupt, knowingly paying themselves extortionate salaries which they were going to ride until the music stopped, along with lavish spending of shareholders funds.

However things are becoming much more transparent now, we have everyone talking about agreements going forward, you can bet your bottom dollar questions have been asked of where's the money been going, for what?, and where's the money for the crude produced and sold...

Bet there's been some squirming for sure.

Great article to read and answers some questions that I had years ago from the TK times. At the time of trucking crude to turkey by oil takers I just couldn't believe the enormous cost of doing so in a region of cheap fuel and labour costs.. Now that has been laid to rest it was clear corruption by Turkish officials holding Kurdistan to ransom. Kozel and all the board would have all known about it, right till the times the pipeline flow was established.

Little wonder now, why the Turkish pipeline costs are so high, but better than the trucking costs?

However there is also a real biggy here that must not be overlooked, if Turkey is paying compensation, which might be used to part satisfy the IOC's and get the crude flowing again.

That is the all important face, where Iraq officials can emerge victorious having solved the long term issue (despite being a deliberate blocking party for many years).

Not out of the woods yet, but moving forward.

Little top up for me, lengthy shipping delays even when sold at discount, means Iraq might not make its OPEC quota regardless. couple of solid reasons to get the crude flowing again.

Pressure is increasing on Iraq with the screw being tightened further to get the crude flowing again. Now we have the Kurdish populace in Syria, joining Turkey in with holding water flows from Iraq.

They cant drink crude, its a straight swop, crude flows then so does water..and they are desperate for it.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/09022024

TSSZ, couple of really great comments on your last couple of posts sir, especially about the positive one pointing towards Baghdad actually wanting to get the crude flowing again really made me think.

Can I just ask investors here, to forget the western mind set, and think possibly of an Iraqi position especially those in a majority in Baghdad who want what's best for iraq and not Iran.

They are clearly aware of the growing in power and reach of Iran, and know of its militant groups within Iraq, which they are very hard pushed to do much about without stirring up a local hornets nest leading to yet more assignations bombing and death. However current events give rise to the perfect opportunity for Uncle Sam to rid these problematic infiltrators into Iraq, while keeping themselves whiter than white.

They will probably publicly protest to the USA about it as well...Keeps up good public profile and stops any future blowback.

I expect an export deal to now be achieved sooner than later, and will buy if we dip tomorrow.

Think the strikes were very much priced in as everyone knew it was about to happen all last week.

Like to think so TSSZ, however "can pay" might not equate to "will pay".

However "God Willing", will be resolved fore long.

For me it was all about trust in SA and others I believed. When that trust is broken it can never be repaired. Although I'll get abuse for it, I'm going just to say this once and its the truth, because I took loads of stick for it at the time.

When questioning that "pre sales inquiries were going up at an alarming rate", after the Birmingham meet what 6 years ago, I was subsequently told in a private phone call from someone I trust and everyone on here knows that, that number had already surpassed 50,000. This came from SA inn a "slip of the tongue". Clearly this was wild exaggeration and false as time proved, and I fell for it.

recently we have all been hearing news on how the middle east is certainly in turmoil mainly due to unrest from organisations backed by iranian influence.

think we must all admit that they do seem pretty effective, and have been suppling russia with a stream of drones, and having signed another much deeper 20 year co-operation package it will enable them to receive technology to manufacture more advanced hardware. they have attacked organisations that they do not agree with in ****stan, iraq, yemen, and supplied weapons to gaza. in fact anyone willing with a roughly aligned cause.

however i believe by using their power, they have overstepped the mark. countries like iraq with long land borders, and a population that fought a long war against iran must have unsettled the population who remember the conflicts against their old enemy.

they are fully aware of this rising power right next door to them, and will probably want to safeguard some protectionist measures against a complete takeover in the future.

china plays a very long game based on trade, and rarely uses direct military force just to help out a friendly country, let alone iraq, so they are good for trade with envelopes but not force.

that leaves uncle sam who also has an aligned interest, but a terrible short term history which has also not been forgiven. however its really all they have so in effect "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

iraqs top brass going to meet top usa officials soon. what better way to cement relations a but by getting the crude following again which will keep, kurdistan, turkey..oh yes the ioc's as well, and enable them to make more money now they control the purse strings.

think many have not recognised this point of view.

facts clearly not missed by the ioc's, and hence the letter to congress, so it will also certainly be on the table.

Almost out of dry powder myself but must admit your top up timing and price at this current time does appear spot on.