Member Info for belgrano

Think thats actually a fair review, and can I thank the posters here for some excellent posts regarding the views to 100k.

With the new acquisition will it allow for opti products to be distributed and sold at mates rates. Look nice in premium stores.

After all every opti holder holds stock here indirectly via the amount of stock OPTI holds. Believe if sbtx was not being handicapped by excessive salary drawdown it might do ok. Almost as if SBTX needs to go back under the wing of OPTI again, with only one management team to pay.

SOH has helped SA out in the past by not overly selling down SBTX, this might not continue if a clear marketing opportunity for opti stock like this was not accepted. Its a strange one as the companies like its shareholders are still intertwined. So could be a free play for opti....was this why one researcher suggested his followers buy opti.

What we are seeing is small tentative steps in the right direction. First of all we just had "contracts are illegal".

Then found out they were so dumb they didn't even know exactly what the contracts were.

This has been rectified and explained to them, and they now understand exactly why their was a big difference in the two types of contracts. Strangely enough they then understood the rational behind all the contracts which I suspect is fairer than they administer out in SOMO.

Then we have seen prices offered jump 350% in value from $6 to nearly $21 per barrel, but nothing about the 151M of crude that was sold and money trousered. This will be addressed I suspect in stages.

So that's a huge initial jump and for the hard bargaining double dealing Arabs signifies that they most certainly want to play ball.

They then get the KRG to try and sell it. Probably tried to dress it up as a "take it or leave it deal", which might work on the street corner, but wont cut ice with tough oilmen holding fully legal contracts on which they know they can get legal compensation ultimately. However they also don't want any long winded multi year path to this recourse unless really stuck, but nice to have in the back pocket.

Losses to SOMO due to world events for unused pipeline going up almost day by day.

Relations with Iran failing, latest being gas for power generation. Iranian missiles aimed into Iraq to kill Iraqis also sours things quickly and raises public anger forcing even those with Iranian leanings to come off the fence in support of Iraq.

Iraq still needs to hold a public face of contract adherence, and what we have seen is only the initial offer to the IOC's.

Things take time but good to hear from todays RNS that we are being included in discussions and I expect the next meeting will be pretty soon. Its on the record that SOMO pays $30 per barrel to at least one company, which I expect included a big "arrangement fee", but they can clearly offer this and the IOC's know it.

The IOC's do currently have the whip hand in talks.

Think its important not to get drawn in to the small fluctuations in shareprice or those trying to get the price down so they can purchase cheaper by spouting garbage. Do find on these boards that the worst posters just extract a small part of a post then try to abuse the poster with it but not offering any real company related news or links.

Was never going to be a fast smooth ride but things are most certainly progressing more quickly now.

As the shareholders on here are actually shareholders in SBTX due to the companies extensive share holdings, it stands to reason that the great shelf space and distribution network offered after SBTX 's latest company acquisition such as boots should also be offered to promote the parent company as well, at mates rates.

Either that or sell the holding in SBTX, which will drive price to low figs indeed and reabsorb SBTX, disposing of its underperforming board, saving a fortune in overheads.

Now we have confirmed by secondary sources that the IOC's, have reached out to the USA for assistance.

What we can read into this is the IOC's response, that the current punitive terms offered by the SOMO officials don't go anywhere near resolving the issue and are clearly insufficient in persuading the IOC's to restart crude production.

For western ethics "a contract is a contract", and when IOC's invest billions in exploring and drilling they don't expect Iraqi officials to try and backstab them in changing contracts after they have met their side of the contracts.

Probably because the KRG got the backhanders and they SOMO did not. ...Its normally something like this.

This has far reaching implications for every company offering or likely to offer assistance to Iraq, that they cannot be trusted even at the highest levels. We see that Iraq is still trying to pull its self out of the third world despite having a really large income per capita population. Acts like these reach world stages and will cause many other companies decide not to even quote for contracts or work.

They have only themselves to blame here, and must "reap what you sow".

Financial losses for the unused pipeline are now about $45M per day now, and shipping knock on delays meaning they cannot even make OPEC quotas, despite now discounting all feedstocks loaded in the gulf due to shipping costs.

RNS today pulls no wool over anyones eyes, and great to see our company can withstand this type of financial blackmail and clear attempts at contract breach.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Firms-Urge-US-to-Pressure-Iraq-to-Restart-Kurdistans-Exports.html

Iranian influence in Iraq and several other local countries is aimed ultimately at promoting their religion, albeit at the end of an AK47. Key to their current policy is total removal of all USA personnel and investments from other countries around it as well along with their western backers. Blatant bribery and deliberate delay is all part of the process to make business untenable for them in Iraq, and a major reason why XOM has quit. They then pass their interests to companies with less morals like Chinese or even better Russian ones who they have signed a 20 year co-operation deal with very recently. However Iraq is not Iran, although the Iranian influences are most certainly beginning to prevail and a major goal is the strangulation of the Kurdish economy which is seen as pro-western in views, and having Turkish backing in major contracts. Know investors here see both sides of the coin and we should not be ignorant of the risks involved. Although I post positive posts as I see them developing, we all know that the tide is currently running against all those who back the west in favour of Russian /Iran agreements and strengths.

China sees both sides and quietly builds its strength around the world, while also snapping up lucrative contracts.

We have already seen Uncle Sam getting involved early this in trying to get the export issue resolved and it got no where. I must admit to being a bit puzzled by this approach if true, as better to continue to quietly work to resolve issues with decent progress being made, than trying to get direct USA influence involved which will get Iraqi politicians backs up and possibly backfire in spectacular fashion.

Be in auction soon, if not already. Right I'm off to the beach.

Must be the SOMO officials stocking up.

Can you smell burning ???? about time it was on the other foot.

Crude oil tankers by design travel the slowest through the water most only doing 12-13 knots, so by not using the Red sea can actually add nearly 45 days to a trip to Europe, or a round trip to the gulf for more crude of 90 days.

Not being overly highlighted yet but will lead to a Chronic crude shortfall if it continues which it is likely to do. Iraq wont get any where near any OPEC quota with this happening, so yet another strong reason to get the Turkish crude pipeline flowing to Europe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/23/more-tankers-divert-from-red-sea-and-its-another-boost-for-us-oil.html

Lot of crude oil shorts closing , believe they think its time to go bullish, lets hope the shorts here decide to try a hold out a bit longer. Might see rises from several directions at once then..

1. Agreement from Baghdad, contracts in effect recognised as legal.

2. Crude oil prices rising due to Ukraine attacks and Houti attacks.

3. USA soldiers killed by drone attacks...increased tension of escalation and further crude oil price hikes.

4. Rapidly increasing crude shipping rates causing all gulf products to be discounted against western and other global crudes by $2 a barrel.

5. Turkey wanting agreement and crude pipeline flows, and holding out on essential water for Iraq flows. Prec-ondition for other investments.

6. Increasingly large financial losses for Iraq with no crude pipeliene flows..nearly $40Ma day now.

7. Delays on shipping as well as increased costs as shipping taking extra 2 weeks going around Afrika...major loss of crude revenue for Iraq, as schedules slip.

8. IOC and Kurdistan pressure, and suppling local markets to keep them ticking over and unlikely to go bust.

9. Already low shareprice, with a lot of shorts being still held by shorters which will have to be closed.

10.Shareholder expectation...Large percentage of "trapped bull", so unlikely to sell until decent return on investment and time realised.

11. Iranian attacks in Iraq has forced politicians who favour Iranian views to pick a side , and they have come down as Iraqis, so now seeing more political will coupled with above necessity to get Kurdistan Crude flowing again to Turkey which SOMO will control.

Certainly looking good for GKP...not a time to sell.

However from the post this quote is new and important. In effect they accept the need for enhanced cost re-imbursement for the Kurdish oilers. Knowing Iraq, bet this is an opening offer??

"Baghdad recognizes that the cost of production is much higher in Kurdistan than anywhere else in southern Iraq and as a result something needs to be done. There are several issues that need amending in the budget law in order that the federal government can pay the KRG share of the budget,"

More confirmation on what we have heard so far...Still some sticking points but certainly moving in the right direction. What we don't know is the IOC's response.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/012924-crude-oil-selling-price-from-iraqs-kurdish-region-in-focus

Or put another way,

How long can shareholders bear no divis and crude sold locally at $30 a barrel last???

Going by recent price action on no concrete news and definite signs of stock accumulation at these low prices I would estimate a very long time indeed.

This is because I would view the chances of getting the crude flowing again before late spring at better than 50%, but the potential to stock prices and returns if it does is higher than 100%.

Going to be plenty of farmers complaining in a few weeks in Iraq when the crops start dying through lack of irrigation. The generous water flows from the Turkish dams has ceased.

Hi Putup,

I don't believe the share price reflects selling modest volumes at $30 a barrel over a prolonged period. This is because the price of crude oil is rising due to shipping and warfare. in the gulf and at Russian terminals. I dont think it will be $30 for much longer.

So I believe market believe crude prices will continue to rise. Also your question did say a "prolonged period", so must not forget the huge amount of money that our company is owed for crude exported and sold right now. That also has a major bearing. In addition the pressure that Turkey is now bringing to bear on Iraq must not be underestimated, as they have a major interest in getting the crude flowing again.

You cant really single out just $30 a barrel in your question and ignore all the other intricately linked factors. Just look at the amount of money owed to our company its half our share price.

However I believe its sustainable for a very long time, much more than Iraq can bear the losses for.

Due to disrupted and risk of getting crude from the gulf, SOMO along with other local states has had to reduce the purchase price of all its crude by nearly another 2 dollars a barrel. This is due to the high shipping costs and will continue or get worse.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Red-Sea-Disruptions-Force-Saudi-Aramco-to-Slash-Prices.html

Thats a good few more million $ a day reasons to get the Turkish pipeline flowing.

Also noticeable that there is currently high demand for heavy crude currently.

I'm not party to any paid subscription , however TW has come out in the past as being right more times than not, what concrete reasons does he give for advising his members to sell here at a loss.

So losses must now be of the order of $40M per day or even more, and an eye watering 1.2B a month. Likely to increase further as crude prices continue to rise with every new successful attack.

We know the governments are making small steps towards a export solution, well this might just incentivise those donkeys to make larger ones.

Brent crude is most certainly on a rise already at $83.5 per barrel.

https://oilprice.com/

These rises are coming from two separate directions.

Firstly Ukraine starting to hit and blow up Russian oil and gas export facilities, lets face it , a tank farm is a pretty easy target and their remote attack drone range and technology is growing very fast indeed. (Should hit the electrical sub stations really as much longer lead times). Clearly this reduction in supply is having an impact and markets are fearful as Russia has lots of facilities that are similar and unprotected.

Now last night despite attempts of USA and UK to prevent red sea/gulf attacks we have a tanker on fire from just such an attack. Clearly missiles are coming from Iran, from where there is no shortage, and USA wont want to attack them.

So this export route is becoming dangerous and much more expensive.

This points to more haste in getting the Kurdish crude pipeline to Turkey flowing. Iraq's economy was suffering by a $35M per day loss, before crude restrictions and jump in Brent, coupled with unused pipeline fees of another $1M a day

I have been combing the company house accounts of Dermatonics, which in essence was a Cornish one man band who has managed to get a couple of products marketed in Boots and superdrug. It does throw up questions , whether as I expect SBTX will continue to market these products and whether the brand stores are willing to free up more shelf space in order to market our own. They might say no or have a lot more cost involved. I was under the impression that the company being bought was larger with a lot more reach and influence, and the purchase price does seem to be on the high end. Seems Mr. Market agrees.