Member Info for belgrano

Good post Morbox,

Seems they like us are in a strong position and getting $39 a barrel.

All the kurdy oilers are in a position to hold out and united in their approach. Seems they do have the whip hand now.

Also the comments about the increasing demand due to the large price differential. Bodes well and we may well see crude prices that are being charged move up slightly. That will benefit everyone bar SOMO, who have losses nearer $8B plus bills for an unused pipeline thats contracted at 400K BOPD. All through their own stupidity, and the quite frankly deserve it, but the Iraqi population do not. Their salaries should be stopped until agreement reached.

Hi Armas,

Think we've covered this before, however you may have missed it.

Oil in the ground while the population starves is useless. Good Arab economies, that are initially crude oil dependant take years to grow. Modern cities will full supporting infrastructure with housing and regular employment (not "working for the government useless roles"), take many years of construction. Fully educating ang training populations with teachers which then give rise to international recognised standards take years also.

Then the best governed ones are weaned off crude oil dependency with the revenues raised by crude used to invest in alternative industries, clearly things like chemical are the easiest, but others promote things like very efficient airlines which then sell transport internationally.

Just pointing out why your comments are completely wrong sir, no offense intended. Also why countries like Iraq, can easily export more crude as they actually do need to raise much more capital to get these projects off the ground.

Currently they are barely breaking even saddled with debt and in a country where the money keeps "vanishing".

They have a hump of pain to get over, and unless they do and stop this stupid bickering over contracts for example they as a country will continue to be deemed as uninvest able and corrupt by the west.

I find TW a bit like Marmite. However we should recall that even when we don't like what he has to say in the fullness of time he does call it right a lot of the time. Typical case in question was his sell recommendation of OPTI when it was nicely over a pound. We didn't like it, however history proves at that time to be the right call. He can come over pretty hard and calls a spade a spade, which can rub people up. He also at one time had a lot of skin in the game as well.

If they actually wanted an agreement it would have been completed by now. Not even speaking to the oil companies is a sure sign of contempt. I expect we will hear something from Baghdad this week although expecting more timewasting as they are completely incompetent officials.

Crude losses might be 8B$ come this week, with only themselves to blame.

For me its about income, and most importantly the time line in how long at current growth will it take until profitability actually happens. Is this the second or third fundraiser we've had now. If we have now achieved 400-500 subscribers in two years at current rate with current annual dilution it might not even happen.

Just hearing from my lifelong friend Richard from Australia that an Australian company called Biomic has introduced an acne cure based on the gut microbiome. Hes concerned that they have beaten skin to the draw. Hopefully hes wrong.

Crude oil prices rise today. Global demand for oil is still increasing with more refineries being built.

Still loads of demand for our crude.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Refining-Industry-Braces-for-Tough-2024.html

Thanks for your contribution sparhawk and putup.

Well Sparhawk , thats exactly what Iraqi officials have been spouting for years, "contracts are illegal." Now they are changing the law.

Also Putup, your figs certainly demonstrate ways in which they are trying to cheat the IOC's already. In fairness must accept some discount to Brent, as our is a very valuable heavy crude. however a fair one and not an excessive one. Must also use what our crude is, not what the crude is after all the heavy fuel oil and bitumen based products that the teapots are putting into the crude oil line then claiming it as pure crude, as a way of bulking it up and disposal of unwanted heavier oils.

That certainly doesn't fool anyone as lab analysis easily picks it up.

Its a bit tricky keeping current with all the latest comings and goings... However so far it seems to me.

1. Turkey pipeline...deal arranged to export for the high price of reportedly $8 a barrel. so effectively a tick box.

2. KRG, caught in the middle with pants down...know it owes 1B$ to oil companies and cannot yet pay so will have to be staged payments..... probably a tick box. Also acting a a go between SOMO and the united oil companies.

3. Iraq and SOMO, these are the ones currently calling the shots, as they won the court case. Must have worked a stage payment with Turkey allowing them to work off any debt, hence why we see higher than normal crude transportation price.

Also means they need to get crude flowing as essentially will be getting the lions share of the transport fees. Also will stop the "penalties for less than 400k BOPD for a non flowing pipeline".. Again incentive to get things moving on top of the gorilla in the room the "$7B plus revenue lost since the court case". Also increasing by the day and why we are seeing such hurried action now.

Already seeing rushed legislation coming in DEC to allow different types of payments for crude....

Might ask the oil companies to start production via pipeline now "as an act of faith"...

4. The oil companies, now seeing at reduced rates all the crude they can produce, have a united front and spokesperson. Want agreed structure for future payments and previous production.

Also want the fully legal contracts to be honoured.. They would surely stand up and win if the oil companies went to arbitration over it. However no one wants the time delay.

I'm expecting a slight compromise from the oil companies, with the agreement it will be enshrined in law in the next couple of months. Then its face saving all around with biscuits.

Actually believe we are very nearly there, might even see that breakthrough this week.

So hold em "golden tickets"....there's a old saying from the past.. But much better than "In Todd we trust ", LOL.

Good luck to all serious investors like myself, actually believe we are very close now indeed. However this is Iraq, and the wheels turn painfully slow.

Hi LOTM-13

Interesting proposition.

Gut feel is it wont work as the refinery's would have to be listed as stocks. Might be state or more likely part tribal family controlled . Also to buy something like that would take a couple of years to arrange and work out all the nitty gritty...

GKP just dont have anywhere near that kind of expertise, as coming from working a lifetime in the oil business and in refining please trust me it would be a nightmare of a purchase.

Also refined products also sold at lower rates than the international one. So main objective not obtained.

What I've seen of some of their refineries I wouldn't touch with a barge pole, that's purely from a quality control point of view on the base pipework and kit. Expect base training and standards just as bad as what I've seen basic operators dont wear much in PPE either.

Most companies tend to buy back stock using relatively small amounts (to market cap), over a period of years.

We agree it adds share value over time, and I always believed it was a pretty tax efficient option which mainly benefited those running the company as they tend to get awarded shares or have a tax efficient share purchase scheme in place.

If GKP were to adopt a stock buy back, it could potentially be pretty sizeable in a short timeframe. Such an announced move would most certainly increase our share price and would increase its attractiveness for investors.

Really couldn't make up how these idiots in charge of Iraqi crude exports behave. clearly given positions and outrageous salaries due to family ties and not intelligence. They know they have lost the Iraqi people over 7B$ so far with more by the day, and come across while talking twaddle with the persona of knowing what they are talking about, however clearly whats had to be explained to them proves they are indeed very ignorant.

While spouting constant nonsense like, "optimistic", and "God willing", while doing nothing at all. However still spouting same old rubbish the same as they have been doing for past 10 years...such as "need to change contracts", "compensation", then throw in the blatant lies like "no official notification about pipeline from Turkey". Guess that means they require a pile of $100 dollar bills in a brown envelope from Turkey, and its then "set to go".

Just a shame that they are in charge as they do their populations who they are supposed to represent no service at all, little wonder many starve while they deliberately delay time and time again....lol rant over.

Yes they do look foolish Mulder, had ample time to sort this out a failed to achieve eve the simplest of tasks. What they need is a stick incentive like stopping of salary until its sorted, but it would be a deal done today then. However knowing Iraq, those thieves will be after back handers.

I remain fairly optimistic of the right outcome

I don't actually believe they will accept our contracts. They could have done that months ago, while at the time trying to blame Turkey for the start up delay the actual fault lied at the door of those in Baghdad, who have been causing all the trouble for years.

Reason being it might cause unrest with the other oil companies which are working to some kind of service contract. Also they have been at loggerheads with the Kurds for years, just this time they are doing what they do best...Munching biscuits while agreeing and back slapping only to go back on it as soon as they return home to Baghdad.

Time to hold ones breath, and dream of a Baghdad politician who isn't bent and corrupted.

Although I'm still bullish it pays to keep our feet planted firmly on the ground as I'm still very wary indeed and distrust the SOMO and Iraqi politicians who could have sorted things out months ago but have chosen not to.

Its clear that Uncle Sam is being removed from Arab dealings worldwide.

2 interesting articles that investors should read. the second one is current, but the first gives the insight.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Iraqs-New-Oil-Law-Highlights-The-Wests-Fading-Influence-In-The-Middle-East.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-And-China-Tighten-Grip-On-Iraqi-Oil-Crescent.html

You are right Harris, its really great to see such positive reviews on trustpilot that our products have completely changed peoples lives for the better.

I fully support the oil companies holding out against exporting. Its still clear that the greedy SOMO Iraqi oil officials want much poorer contracts for us, and forgetting that unlike those production contracts in Iraq on known oilfields the Kurdish oilers took all the risk.. Now they are trying to rob them of their rightful rewards by changing the contracts.

Hold out I say, even if the crude doesn't flow this year via the pipeline , because they are hurting much more than us and the oilers hold the whip hand, while they loose the bulk of the income

Also the accurate statement...."Despite previous delays, the current intensity of the talks indicates that a breakthrough may be imminent".

Clearly something has changed dramatically, almost as if they have been instructed to agree and get the crude flowing again??? Great for GKP, but what's this most recent driver that was not there before, or is it the realisation that if it goes on much longer with increasing local sales they wont need the pipeline anyway but will be burdened with empty export line financial penalties.

Yes Theoryman, I picked up on exactly the same things. Almost saying that the FGI officials are actually ignorant of all the small but important details of the Kurdistan oil contracts.?

This is despite spouting garbage for years that our contracts are illegal, they don't even know how they have been set up and who gets what. Really shows up the politicians and FGI officials as actually spouting hot air for years and not knowing what our contract entails.

Why say these comments comes to my mind...I expect its because now they are being discussed they've actually had to come forward and admit they don't really know so are asking our representative to carefully explain. Will probably find payments not that far removed from some in the south, and if they had even taken the time and trouble to do some background research for which they are being paid very handsomely indeed for , could probably have sorted out the issue 10 years ago and avoided lengthy court battles.

Could really struggle to buy 5M shares, Mr. Market and the institutions takes no prisoners when it smells the blood in the water of an over exposed position. Expect the big boys will be contracted first to see if they will release some decent blocks of stock...Failing that if they go to market to fill the order it'll cost them a pretty penny to buy that stock.

I'd wager no sympathy here at all....In fact the complete opposite.

I would still like our company to invest in additional storage tankage, yes some really large tanks will cost probably 5M,

however its a case of "use just once and they've paid for themselves easily.

Know we could not have run at max though out this pipeline shut in, but could have certainly have filled the tanks.

Just gives so much more flexibility, who's to say the export line might leak due to earthquake or man made means, could also charge others for crude storage. I'm thinking of a few million barrels of storage, not a couple of hundred thousand.

Once you scale up size the costs crash.