Member Info for belgrano

Quite a strong rebuttal from the Kurdistan gov, pointing out that the rules the Iraq gov are trying to enforce have been constructed from non international recognised standards, antiquated from the Saddam regime.

This is due to the fact that Baghdad don't want to tweak their laws, and don't intend to. Every meeting over the last year has clearly been a waste of time. Seems Turkey backs Erbil in this and Iraq is desperate for Turkish water, so its why they are trying to get another export pipeline commissioned . However Turkey has serious investments in the Kurdish IOC's, so in effect gets a double bite of the cherry. It wants Kurdish crude.

Its also a neat way of delaying the whole issue, which is to stagnate the more western backed Kurdish economy. This will be fully supported by Iranian factions and militant groups within Iraq.

Glad we said it was a glimmer of hope, that was spot on.

I think its important to put a worst case timeline in it TSSZ, for investment /reward purposes. For me that timeline stands at about 16 months, when the current export pipeline to Turkey expires. Then the KRG/ TURKEY and the IOC's can make another and start exporting.

As the company has got its head above water with steady income, its pretty safe in the foreseeable, so I look upon things as a locked in 18month bond/investment with returns at that time much better than I can get elsewhere. That's without any agreement in the meantime. THE IOC's and KRG both know this and I believe its one reason why they are playing hardball.

Turkey tried the goodwill gesture last summer, by opening up the water flows so Iraq could have plenty of water, costing Turkey electricity production and expecting the return of that "goodwill", in crude oil flows.

Iraq gave them nothing, so gesture wont be repeated.

Yes the ministry of oil is saying they are ready for export.

They will most certainly allow free export, whereas the oil companies will not get paid anything at all. The IOC's took all the exploration risk with no infrastructure unlike the known easy oil in Iraq, where in many cases it was already producing and access was good. And Iraq thinks it can pay them exactly the same.???, and rip up existing solid contracts.

I also would like your house and car, but I wont give you anything for them?

This stock does surprise, so I would not do for a huge retrace.

In Europe out means out, in Iraq no agreement means no agreement yesterday.

Also the Arab culture is completely different to ours. For example we saw the same old delaying tactics used yesterday, but pointedly no agreement for more water either. They could be totally at loggerheads one day and about to have a military conflict, the next following a brief small slipping in of a "arrangement envelope", best of friends and saying he wants you to to marry his daughter.

The future for Iraq is very bleak indeed and will almost certainly become a puppet for Iran, and Iranian militant groups will continue to grow in power. Western companies will continue to pull out, leaving Russian and Chinese ones who have less morals. However they are only after money, so the mass population will continue to starve, and highly likely to become a wasteland rather than a successful metropolis it could become, but ruined by themselves.

I do believe we will carry on like this for another 15 months until the export oil pipeline ends. then its back as previous.

I find it almost unbelievable that Iraqi ministers and some Kurdish ones are actively looking for western investment by western businesses while clearly demonstrating by their own actions and bickering that they are a place you wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

Clearly only companies that will do some sort of investment participation only do so when they hope for very generous returns and not those normally seen.

This is due to corruption on an eye watering scale, and backsliding on cast iron contracts.

Iraq as reported on Bloomberg that Kurdish oil exports will take time is clear sign of continued lying.

They could have easily resolved this over a year ago but are not doing it by choice.

Now they are playing same trick by trying for yet more delays, who do they think they are fooling, they have no credibility left.

Hi Mendoza,

Quite frankly I don't believe its anything to do with the IOC contracts, that's the excuse they like to hide behind. The truth is its all about bringing Kurdistan under the heel of Iraq, and squashing all dreams of independence.

They could have easily tweaked the law to allow payments equivalent to our current contract terms. Indeed Iraq actually pays more to other oil companies so not unique.

However they do need Turkish water and Turkey wants Kurdish crude, as its also invested heavily in the Kurdish IOC's along with the Kurdish pipeline.

Clearly top of his list is Kurdistan oil exports, while water is clearly being held as a bargaining chip. Iraq has got plenty of "flunky", things for him to sign but clearly that's not why he's here.

Much more promising, light at tunnel end possibly. well worth a read.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34657-Turkish-President-to-meet-Iraqi-PM-in-Baghdad,-key-agreements-expected

Believe it is a glimmer only, like to think more, but the Iraqi oil ministers are full of double dealing, while saying one thing but doing the opposite.

However Turkey does have a lot of money tied up in Kurdish IOC's and the export pipeline.

If Iraq is trying to rush the alternative pipeline into service the only reason is to try and hammer kurdistan more. Just unfortunate that the IOC's are pawns in the middle of the struggle.

Thanks for posting Blumagnet,

Knowing that meetings are about to take place, and also knowing full well the already seen strategy of Iraqi officials of blaming everyone bar themselves for deliberate cause of delay, they are clearing going on the record as saying they are fully willing to produce crude oil for export. Asking for their share of payment for crude that has already been sold for doing all the work, is clearly fair in anyone's eyes bar an embezzler.

Just stopping them from trying to blame the IOC's for the delay which they have already attempted to do in the press.

Time for them to come clean which most don't believe they will, while still trying to extort USA dollars for aid, while being the primary cause of hardship.

The Iraqi government has refrained from denouncing Iran's use of its airspace.

A spokesman for the Iran-backed Al Nujaba militia in Iraq criticised Baghdad after the attack, saying the intervention of US forces "undoubtedly embarrasses the Iraqi government, which seeks to take a clear position on the American military presence" in the country.

and link......

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/04/15/iran-missiles-israel-iraq/

Its no secret that Iran arms all those proxy groups with Iranian religious views. Are you based in Iran Andy, make no mistake, every post here is read by paid individuals in those countries.. I can also prove that as well.

Its clear that some weapons were launched from Iraq, by groups armed by Iran with Iranian backing.

Some of the religious clerics are aligned with the Iranian ones along with many judges.

Noticeable that we have not had outrage that Iraqi airspace violated badly....

Also clear that the Iraqi military didn't try and shoot down the slow moving drones or even apprehend those launching them. Why not.... They were told not to,

Many of the ministers in Baghdad are proxy for Iran. This is the direct cause of our pipeline not opening. Some are trying to play both sides for advantages.

Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34582-US:-Some-Weapons-Fired-from-Iraq,-as-it-Denounces-Iran%E2%80%99s-Attack-on-Israel

link that some weapons were fired from Iraq.

Crude oil already hit 6 month high today, following the overnight attacks on Israel. Some of the weapons used were fired from Iraq. Clearly by those controlled by Iran.

Iraqis now have a clear issue and problem, they have to either get rid of these militants or embrace Iran completely. Its also crystal to the world who is the country that's been stirring up all the trouble against Israel, and where all the arms have been coming from.

Doubt the average Iraqi, wanted attacks from its own soil, and clearly Iraqi airspace has been seriously violated.

Did Iraq actually try to prevent or shoot down these drones, or did they actually do, what they've been doing the last year, by paying lip service against the attacks, but actually doing the opposite.

Yep the lies the ministers have been saying the last year are clear for all to see. Talk of working with fellow countrymen in Kurdistan while all the time do the opposite.

They are the first to have their hands out trying to get USA dollars and aid.

Two faced and bent as hell.

Only 16 months or so to go.

Generally the more complexity a refinery is the heavier slate it can process at increasing profitability. For example reliance in India must have profits soaring through the roof currently. It had a complexity index (nelson rating), only second place in the world. It loves a very heavy slate like ours, and is currently binging on discounted Russian crude which its mixing then using the refined products to complete in Europe.

Our heavy crude is very valuable and any small discount it is sold at is pure profit the the big refiners. Such heavy crudes have more complex longer chain hydrocarbons which can be cracked . polymerised and converted to very valuable products indeed often with a 2000% mark up, from the original crude price ton for ton. I certainly believe our crude is being trucked out of the country because the margins fordoing so are excellent. We know who will be behind these operations and one of the reasons why there is a local heavy crude shortfall resulting in higher local prices.

Although I got abuse over my thoughts that stock would be offloaded, and made a strong case it most certainly does appear that I was correct. Another 2 million share sell just came through coupled with some other still hefty ones.