Member Info for belgrano

Lets hope Baghdad shows decent flexibility which I doubt going by the last 10 years if they are actually serious. Not actually about the terms but the size of the bribe which is the sealing factor.

Shakhawan Saeed, the spokesperson for the Erbil civil defense, told journalists that due to a short circuit cause by high electrical pressure, tanker trucks caught fire, four of them completely burned down.

Very fast investigation for sure, caused by high electrical pressure, that's a unique one?. Trucks all well spread out as well.

They can sniff the possibility of the brown envelopes, hence its now urgent. Trick is not to pay until cleared with all parties as long history of taking the bribe and doing runners.

However it is slightly more promising.

I'd wager our brokers have a very good idea how much stock has been shorted and from whom. Its a bit of a game , because if Peel purchased say the full $10 buybacks days before the AGM, it would be powerless to stop a united shorting effort from borrowing more stock then selling it in order to try and panic the market giving them a nice exit position.

If they hold increasing amounts of dry powder,, it gives them a much stronger hand to smash the shorters with.

Going to be a good few weeks for sure.

We all believe the share price will continue to rise as the buybacks continue. However have already had one posted comment from an investor that he might offload some at 160p if it was to reach that price.

That is due to the fact that at 160p (figure higher or lower for some I'm sure), that investor believes its fair value to sell some or all of his holding (nothing wrong with that at all).

Now lets explore another but similar scenario where following a bit of a stock squeeze last week the broker phoned all the known larger holders asking if they were interested in unloading a small or even large quantity of stock.

If the larger holder believes for example that "fair value" was say 140p, he might sell $8M at this price, and announce the trade just before the AGM.

So nice to think it, but with an uncertain future ahead, this does lower the "fair value", price of GKP stock, so a future rise without any more positive news is most certainly not in the bag by any means.

As I had suspected, no talks taken place at all regarding settlement.

However the lasted statement will most surely get a lot of attention. Especially the following from the statement in case you missed it.

“APIKUR’s member companies stand ready to constructively participate in any such talks.”

Aaaahhhh, Baghdads ministers for oil will say, perfect. ....and just to get into those ministers mindsets now.

"Great opportunity to get brown envelops and large backhanders from the IOC's".

This is far more important than any fair deal, seeing to do the right thing, or in the interests of all Iraqis. Its in their interest so is likely to get very prompt attention indeed. Seems unbelievable to any western mindset, looking for fair business and contract terms, but it's the way of things here. Some Chinese companies already being rewarded by over $30 per barrel. Those terms were not achieved by any fair means either.

They all know the way out of the mess and how to get the crude and water flowing, just need the personal rewards for doing it. Will come out viewed as public heroes when in fact gross embezzlers.

So in a peculiar way, things are looking up.

i don't believe that apikur have even been consulted. it appears that in over a full year baghdad has actually achieved nothing by deliberate design.

its not turkey who would love kurdish crude, nor the krg who have agreed that somo can control the purse strings.

it is baghdad make no mistake. so why have we been getting mixed messages and signals all year followed by nothing.

well like most governments iraqi parliament is made up from several factions backed in many cases by strongly armed fanatics or zealots. they have a history of getting away with rife corruption, extortion and murder, and control the judiciary in many cases, and have gained great wealth through this greed.

we do have parties that are actually trying to get things moving, and the positive things we occasionally here are from these politicians or factions.

however here as investors we must be realistic because the biggest factions are pro iranian ones, which hate all western backed kurdish development or progress. they have already introduced archaic rules like 15 years inside for admitting to be *** with a partner. they also control the judiciary , which is why we always got "contracts are illegal" excuses, and will make sure the laws don't get tweaked to comply.

as can be seen by open brawling by politicians in parliament they cant even elect a supposedly neutral speaker, let alone remove rife corruption and effectively govern iraq.

For myself with the current buybacks in operation and no new positive news I can see a share price ceiling around 1.50, however with a continuing buy back operation at current rates of say $10 M a month, I can see that rising by another penny a week as it continues and stock in circ reduced. Thats without any real production changes from where we currently sit.

Pretty sure that crude exports to Turkey wont be resumed this year, indeed until the contract finishes next year. This is because the Iranian influence behind the government in Baghdad and SOMO is just too strong and they are trying every trick in the book to blame everyone else bar the real holdouts which is themselves.

After having the pipeline shut over a year at a cost of nearly 13Billion dollars, they have not properly negotiated on anything or any sign of give and take or even wanting exports to start. This is despite pressure from all sources, its not a case for what's good for Iraq and the Kurdish people, more like what's in it for me, as unlikely more brown envelopes are forthcoming. Wont even honour contracts, and trying to cheat the IOCs. Now blaming the IOC's.

I expect even if the IOC's agreed to slash their rightful awards they would insist on other things, like the crude has to go down the alternative pipeline , and not the Turkish constructed one.

Hopefully our company can point out an alternative way forward at the AGM. We are most certainly not out of the woods yet.

Spot on Straycat,

Clearly if Shorters are closing positions with losses having to buy back the borrowed stock, it also means they are unlikely to short here soon, unless something significantly negative happens.

We shouldn't always expect to see an RNS until the order is filled, such as a large one at a set price to maximise shareholder benefit, so it could easily stretch into a few trading sessions. So can easily be a delayed announced purchase along with a subsequent holdings announcement RNS which might be intersession and not 07:00hrs.

Highly likely that the brokers have a rough idea of the quantity of shorts currently being held. Actually seeing a declared decreasing quantity sends a message directly from the shorter's that they clearly believe that the share price will rise further hence they are starting to reduce exposure.

By holding off on purchases it makes their buying operations harder to read and potentially exploit. I also do wonder a little if its to help the shorter's obtain stock as well and prevent rapid overheating of price verses availability, if everyone tried to purchase at once stock to clear shorts and removal.

Better to spread out gently over a little time.

If the shorts are closing its doing the buybacks for them, although i'd have made it cost them more. however gut feel is that from getting the upward trend in price moving they will push harder on the buy backs nearer the time of the agm. just creates a better environment for shareholders if its a more buoyant price, rather than have completed the 10 m buybacks only to find another shorter jumps in at the end , borrows stock and starts aggressively selling it.

Hi Truthsayer,

I don't think its anything to do with false confidence. Its what you believe to be a good price for the stock you hold, taking into account company sales, profits, and prospects .

What we have to look at how long the share price was significantly below the price we now see and whether this represents a decent return on your investment and if you believe its going to go up much more coupled with the urgency that you require the cash.

Many may have purchased using a T20, so don't want to have to fork out regardless of prospects. Other traders or investors may decide to pull something off the table.

Clearly we do have a buyer with deep pockets, however which will normally win through on eventual share price as the stock is slowly and steadily soaked up, purchased and removed from circulation.

I believe this is what we are currently seeing and the brokers are happy to absorb a fair chunk of stock knowing they have an iceberg whale purchasing it.

As price rises we might see larger holders thinking that fair price has been reached and decide to shed some to the market or the iceberg whale. Indeed if its a large holder it may cause temporary share price stagnation until quota to buy reached or quantity to offload reached.

We saw the announcement for a smaller quantity purchased in yesterdays RNS, probably to roughly equalise the purchasing time until the AGM, when our company I believe will announce another trance of buybacks , which may jump the price further.

Hi Unwin,

It wont hurt me at all and I doubt it will bother anyone here, just those who think it would.

As you correctly point out, was planned to start 3 weeks ago, and also correctly point out was an half baked Iraqi plan to try and circumnavigate the Kurdish sector. Everyone saw through that straight away.

However 2 glaring flaws in this plan from Baghdad.

Line passes through areas of Kurdish influence to Turkey, potential for disruption.

Also the most important facts, the OIC's have a lot of Turkish money tied up in them along with the Turkish export pipeline. KRG exporting direct to Turkey gives Turkey a few bites of the profit cherry not just one.

Iraq tried that as a way to get more Turkish water which they have to have. It failed as they aren't really interested in this sole flow, but would welcome it as an extra export.

I expect those peeps still holding shorting positions in our company are having a very uncomfortable time right now with the scale of those losses growing on a daily basis and knowing that they will have to buy the stock back at best to repay the shorts. Clearly positions less than 0.5% don't have to be announced so might be quite a few shorting.

I do like the measured way our stock buy back program is progressing. On a percentage terms of average daily sales its a pretty big number that's being purchased, so clearly we can now see the very material effects of the buybacks on everyones stock value.

No one likes to see stock in the red and certainly gives greater confidence when viewing this steady upward trend. I'd be happy for it to continue for a year.

Al-Sudani said the government is eager to resolve an impasse over prices that has halted oil exports for more than a year. But he said the companies refuse to amend contracts signed years ago with semi-autonomous, oil-rich region of Kurdistan.

“The companies refuse to amend, so the process stops at this point,” he said.

What he really means is " The IOC's wont let us cheat them after taking all the exploration and development risk we now want them to produce the crude for peanuts". "Therefore it must be their fault, cant possible be ours, so gives us the known excuse to delay restarting exports again".

No where else in the world would any company allow itself to be cheated out of its rightful profits, while those trying it on say they want more western investment....What planet are they on???

Most welcome,

Also believe me, the Iraqi gov will read our posts. Every single one is vetted and read by paid employees. I know this to be factual as something I once posted got reported to the CEO of a company engaged in business. Directly from a post posted on LSE. All the Arab countries employ personnel to check every forum and post. Expect other countries also do likewise but I cannot prove that as never revealed their hand. Why its important not to post anything you know is a lie with intension to influence others to either sell or buy.

Hi Theoryman,

I am highly confident that Iraq producing say 2M BOPD more will be accepted by Saudi.

At times when Iraq could not produce its quota Saudi made this shortfall up.

By rights the opec quotas 10B and 4B bopd for Saudi and Iraq should be reversed.

Also the need for income supports this view.

Will the Saudis like it....clearly no, but they will have to accept it. Iraq can produce a very compelling argument indeed which few can deny.

If we look at the debt Iraq currently has, is house Saudi going to step in and pay it for their brother Muslims. No, but they will allow them to pump a lot more crude in order to improve the prosperity of the Iraqi people.

They all know how bad things are in Iraq, while the rest of the Arab league have done very well indeed. I was also told of promises made when they couldn't produce enough crude and all the others, made up the shortfall making additional profit that it would be remembered. That way it prevented the cost of oil going far too high as we both know while its good for short term income, its bad for long term crude dependability as it increases drive for fuel efficiency and alternative energy.

Might those in Iraq who hate the Kurds use it as an excuse to limit Kurdish production, well they might.. they try anything to deflect the blame from themselves.

Gone a bit quiet about the max $6 a barrel payment from Iraq recently, especially when they just awarded over $30 a barrel contract to a Chinese company, and in easier locations than GKP had all those years ago.

From a Iraqi viewpoint far better to have SOMO control the purse strings, because the attempts to stiffle the Kurdish ecomomy has clearly failed, and they need to get control before the pipeline contract ends next year.

Letting the Kurdish farmers harvest crops is a signal of co-operation and actual payment for Kurdish civil servants is another major pointer towards co-operation.

suspect they might just let the KRG talk to the IOC's next, as the IOC's will run rings around them in a proper oil mans boardroom meeting, as quiet frankly despite having all the titles, bells , whistles and fancy suits with the full range of flunkies to wait on them, they actually don't know much about the oil business, being at best third rate. However at getting backhanders they are some of the sharpest.

Clearly demonstrated when they didn't even know what the KRG contracts with the IOC's were, despite saying for a decade they were illegal. Little wonder why companies like one of my old ones XOM have walked away from IRAQ, along with all the worlds Western oil majors. Its not because they don't have oil, but the corruptive greed of the idiots in charge of it. They claim to be trying for most Western backing for projects like electricity, gas handling and distribution, sanitation and water projects, but their own actions like the ones we are seeing right now make themselves beyond the pale for any honest western company.

Oil companies affirm readiness to start crude oil exports.

https://zoomnews.info/en/40171/

subject to backpay, agreement of prompt future payments and contracts ratified.

IOC's playing Iraq at its own game now, I believe its all hot air, they talk and talk to deliberately delay while I doubt even having the decency to talk directly to the IOC's or its representatives. Next thing they would be trying to blame the OIC's, so better to get this out now so they cant use that stone to hide under while trying to blame anyone but themselves.

Quick to get hand out for USA aid mind, not shy about taking that.

125,905 buy at 13:02 at 133.7 , gentle tick up the way we like it.

Any guesses as to buyer?

We'll let Putup have first go, good to see apology, doubt anyone acted on his deliberate misinformation and advice anyway. Just nicer to know just one person acting alone and not a more bigger set up. Every village has one.