Member Info for belgrano

Hi Broadford,

Appreciate your advice,

Know a lot of investors are hoping that any new agreement could be worded or achieved outside of SOMO control. Clearly many in Kurdistan are pressing for independence from Baghdad, and independent income streams from pumped exported crude could certainly be a keystone. Is it a requirement in the current contract that Baghdad has to have a say, which could be removed in a new contract with direct agreement from a self autonomous Kurdistan.

I believe Baghdad has many in power actively trying to undermine Kurdistan due to hatred on religious grounds and will always conjure excuses to prevent the pipeline opening. Just that a new contract might circumnavigate them completly.

Got to always remember Turkey has a high vested interest in getting the pipeline crude flowing. It's part ownership in some of the IOC's, charges pipeline duty, charges port tankages and shipping charges and has the ability to supply its needs directly.

It would prefer Kurdish crude to Iraqi crude any day of the week.

Expect the rivers in Iraq will be drying up fairly soon now they have 50 degrees temperatures. Not going to see a torrent of fresh cold mountain water replenish that trickling flow anytime soon now Iraq wont co-operate.

They will be more than happy to let the dam levels increase as it generates more hydro , but as for releasing a decent flow anytime soon...forget it.

Hi Vanquish,

I actually don't know the terms and conditions of the pipeline agreement which expires next year. I posed the question to our board at the AGM but it did not get mentioned.

I'd certainly like to know if there is some export via pipeline potential next year, as I'm also in the camp that it will never have a majority blessing from those in Iraq which are controlled by Iranian puppeteers.

Do you know Broadford? or anyone else.

So now we are to receive an interim dividend, while the share buybacks continue if needed to support the share price and decrease the quantity of shares in circulation.

However this has been achieved in only a couple of months, so apart from the planned maint (wish we had a lot more tankage, my poorly answered Q2 in the AGM), for three weeks we will run at reduced capacity, (hopefully they can stockpile a decent amount to reduce losses). However we are starting to see some pretty decent amount of cash being generated.

No reason why we might not see 3 or 4 such dividends per annum.

Also on the subject or our absent but owed 151M from the KRG. They know they owe us it, they got paid for the crude that was produced before the export pipeline closed. They had to prioritise payments when faced with sudden large income shortfall, and the IOC's were not top of the list.

However current large sales are controlled by the KRG via proxies, and for arguments sake lets call them what they are....exports.

Now we know as all the IOC's are exporting via truck currently the KRG must be really pulling in a small fortune in sales.

Its been going steadily for a while now and I expect the most urgent bills have been paid.

Is it not inconceivable that GKP might receive a nice part back payment for monies owed from the KRG, with which the company will reward shareholders with a real decent dividend. Some money might be used for field development.

So a few modest dividends which add up to a decent amount annually

Chance of a whopper divi.

Buyback supporting price and reducing stock.

Outside chance of export pipeline agreement (I'd say 3%)

No debt and decent contingency cash held.

Oil field giving 6-10 % decline which is good.

Very strong demand for our valuable sludge, and good relationship with the KRG.

For me a very positive outlook with much better than evens chance of decent capital growth from here and high annual dividends as well. Very hard to beat that.

Hi Broadford,

I doubt the IOC's would even consider trucking operations that might be construed as illegal by Iraq and used as an excuse for contract termination. Also lots of obstacles to overcome if even thinking of going down this path.

However trucking operations by the KRG or their appointed "partners", know the routes, contacts, and have control of border security on both sides, so ideal for them to control.

I expect things might get "difficult", if the oil companies even tried to do likewise. I actually believe impossible, to exit border posts for example. Clearly the maths are lucrative, and the KRG did it for years before the export pipeline was commissioned.

As we both know the KRG get several financial bites of the cherry if trucking crude from GKP sites to "local refiners". So its very much in their best interest to keep operations smooth.

After listening to our company presentation carefully it does appear to me that the stance has noticeably changed regarding opening of the export pipeline.

Its not just who controls the crude purse strings anymore its grown into a full rats nest of lies and deceit with many parties with hidden agendas. Majority of which has been orchestrated by the lying Iraqi oil ministers. He even praised the recent meeting as "good progress". What planet is he on.?

Clearly we now have a full scale export trucking operation in full swing. Baghdad knows this and probably why they are more than hesitant on the purse strings when giving the KRG their share of the budget.

Clearly eye watering profits are being paid, and I dont believe that the IOC's are being given fair compensation for the crude produced. However they are getting paid quickly and its starting to increase ....I expect this is due to the fact that those making literally Billions from all the IOC's combined have realised that they must give the IOC's more of the "cake" , in order in some cases to service debts and provide enough income to get things back to a semblance of normal.

Now the realisation is kicking in that we are in for the long haul I'd expect crude prices paid to keep ticking up with the permission of the controlling paymasters of the trucking operations.

Make no mistake this is operations on a huge scale employing hundreds of staff. Clearly this exports are under the radar, which is why OPEC wants to see it with SOMO control and accountability.

However it seems to be growing in scale and profitability so unlikely the KRG will actually show Baghdad our IOC contracts and its going very well indeed for them right now, so why change things as they know Baghdad will then exercise its new monetary muscle to subjugate Kurdistan. They just don't trust them and going by what we've seen I'd tend to agree.

So I look forward to slowly increasing "local sales", and probably increasing rate of pay for the crude. I actually believe we are better off allied with Kurdistan than Iraq, although as we all know it is a bit like the wild west.

It's exploring surety of payment for the IOC's.

Too long have the oil companies waited with hands out for some monies or in many cases no payment at all. We are owed over 150M which is not small beer by any standards.

Might be one small part of the issue, but quite frankly those items were known well over a year ago. Still got to counter the unacceptable contract terms and the ridiculous time scale for payment of monies owed. They are trying to impose on the IOC's while in some cases paying Chinese companies up to 30%. Clear double standards from the lying Iraqi ministers. Even if they agree the Iranian loving majority of MP's will scupper any deal regardless

In fairness most oil companies do operate a share bonus scheme which is intended for share retention so employees feel more part of the company which they own. This is normally not individual performance based or even annual company performance but constitutes part of remuneration package.

This is normally like 2%-5% of your salary and if held for X years becomes tax free.

I was part of one for over 30 years.

What I believe most investors are rightly concerned about is when its not a set percentage and fear is that pure greed will take over and they will in fact trouser the lot with excessive share handouts. Pigs in the trough comes to mind.

They is partly due I believe to a bit of a history with this company by grossly over rewarding themselves at the expense of shareholders.

Its well worth following up with the company.

Certainly not a day to be short, or out. Feel sorry for those investors who jumped in the 140's. At least they do have a re-joining opportunity even if a little more expensive. just put it down to experience. Very happy with the unexpected dividend and reward for staying loyal.

I also asked about the possibility of a substantial increase in size of tankage. Even the really large tanks are not terribly expensive, and its almost a case of use it just once and its paid for itself. Plus could hire out ullage to other companies.

Just take recent report, where due to holiday tucking availability a bit short, then couple it to a forthcoming shutdown for maint. Would enable steady full production to be continued.

Looking forward to seeing my questions hopefully answered tomorrow morning along with everyone else's.

Looking to see some chunky buying before long as only a couple of days to our AGM and a fair amount of cash still held as purchasing power.

Volumes currently low which would indicate potential for decent increases if decent forced buys go through.

I believe this is why the board are re-instating full pay and suchlike, they also believe they are being side lined from exporting in order to punish the minority ethnic Kurds. Just that its being done in a convoluted way to make human rights prosecution difficult. Years ago they used poison gas, now they are trying unemployment and withholding payments.

The old hatred it seems is still there on religious grounds. I find it despicable, and one of the reasons I invest in GKP.

Why would Iraq fail to compromise, indeed has produced terms that they know cannot be accepted as totally unfair, and they actually don't want the IOC's to accept them anyway, its just a façade that they are doing something, indeed a photo opportunity for them.

To understand why they are happy with these staggering losses I believe we have to look at whats actually happening in Iraq and Baghdad and its most certainly not a pretty picture to Western eyes.

Indeed China is taking over, and when an oil company takes a licence they can bring in whatever security they wish, and in whatever numbers as well. China has done this, indeed some of the oil contracts are to Chinese military subsidiaries under an oil company guise. indeed China is viewing Iraq as its local fuel station, with deals struck now in return for X number of crude cargoes per month for years. Article below well worth a read

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Tightens-Its-Grip-On-Iraq-With-Major-Successes-in-Licensing-Rounds.html

Giving us IOC's cargoes from Turkey would be one way out of this impasse, however the Iranian and Chinese puppeteers might not agree as they want oil exported from Chinese controlled companies, and they now control the idiotic Iraqi ministers and officials whom they keep very sweet.

The current losses that Iraq is accumulating due to their inflexibility and failure to compromise when all other parties clearly show willing is gross stupidity beyond belief.

This is at a time when they are indeed struggling for income and don't even have power 24/7 , and many suffer from lack of food and poor hygiene.

How can they look those people in the eye, and claim to be looking after their interests, more like their own, or Iran's.

Just look at the way those losses are increasing by thousands every minute. View top of AKIPU link.

$17, 370 M dollars and rising.

https://www.apikur.uk/members/

Https://bakeryinfo.co.uk/manufacture/greggs-to-create-600-jobs-with-frozen-production-site-in-derby/692216.article

This isn't new, but gives great insight to fast growing demand for supply of Greggs products.

Store expansion still ongoing, and being backed by increases in supply chain capability. New production lines will also be available with new production premises building in spare capacity for expansion.

For serious investors like myself I feel that this is still at the accumulation stage, and will be for next 36 months.

If it wasnt expanding rapidly it could throw off a very large amount of cash to shareholders. This may well happen in about 4 years. Solid longer term hold for me.

Can only think that GKP and Peel have been having some discussions over it, like it was initially a one off $10M before the AGM this Friday, but since then they have decided to make the buybacks continue after the AGM. In which case Peel then advised a more modest repurchase scheme in order not to overinflate the share price and maximise investor returns.

Would also fall more in line with company cashflow, if a little more modest so enabling it to continue even if crude prices being obtained drift off a little, while slowly building investment float.

We also appear to be a little light on cash spent on share buybacks. Is peal holding back some funds waiting to purchase some serious chunks later this week. Normally if a broker gets a decent wedge to spend they most certainly will?

Got to be some reasoning behind it.

I do believe even the modest 125k stock purchased towards the end of trading yesterday pretty well stripped the book. Deems the broker waited to see if the price would fall lower but when it bounced off resistance the stock was picked up getting best shareholder value.

I'd punt for continued blue runs for a few sessions now.

Having reached 146p a share very recently, and now bounced off the support line which Putup correctly points out, I believe we will not see a great deal of resistance before returning to 146p.

This is because those that sold were either momentum traders or those that purchased hoping for a resolution to oil exports (does anyone actually still believe what the Iraqi oil minister says)?

most of those took an exit recently and the buybacks are continuing to mop up fairly high percentages of trades on low volume days like today.

Just my viewpoint on the current situation.