Member Info for belgrano

Ahhh, the smell of more corruption and greased Iraqi palms, as its the 13 companies mainly Chinese who were awarded contracts in May.

so they held sealed bids with most western companies refusing to bid, under service agreement terms, so the Chinese companies swept the board, and are now retrospectively increasing rewards with enhanced contractual terms.

Bet they knew??? Or were informed...Clear corruption at the highest level.

Better get talking to the Kurdish IOC's, their argument on only insisting on service agreements just gone right up in flames... They havn't a leg to stand on now.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Moves-to-Profit-Sharing-Terms-in-New-Oil-and-Gas-Contracts.html

Nice one.. Baghdad has relented knowing its attempts to lure western investment with service contracts are a total failure.

So now they are changing track and offering much more lucrative terms in profit sharing contracts.

They did try and cheat Total by trying to change contracts giving them bigger slice but had to give in when Total said NO.

Looks like these clowns are just starting to learn.

Think we have just moved a big step forward in ending our stalemated position.

Passed Greggs in Swanage high street recently at 07:50 queue out the door, next day 09:30 still a queue but a bit smaller.

This is my weather vane, " are they doing brisk trade at all hours", views from other investors from around the country appreciated.

Its exactly what Iraq has been asking for, we must accept it is their country even if we do or don't like it. Sometimes when they don't have an overbearing USA presence they treat western companies and personnel much better.

Its just with previous history having USA military around and in the mix continually causes resentment which upsets the peace.

Might well find that those dates for total withdraw gets bought forward somewhat.

Https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/050820242

They have shut down over 100 "refiners", due to poor practice.

Its a mistake calling them refineries when in fact all they are is blending facilities.

All refinery's have what we call a "mogas pool", where lots of mainly unwanted and low value streams are pumped in tightly measured quantities in some cases, into the gasoline pool which is octane adjusted and sold as petrol.

This stream can contain some "nasties", such as MEK, SBA, soluble water, sulphur but these must be tightly controlled .

What these tinpot "refiners" are doing , is blending in lots of all types of very cheap unwanted streams , then adding loads of octane booster to make vehicles run on it.

When run in engines can cause dangerous polluters, and some of them can damage components such as fuel pumps (SBA is dreadful for that), while sulphur causes illness and stinks.

These tinpots are undercutting proper refineries, and the daft population just buy where is cheapest, not knowing whats in it.

By closing them down, local gasoline and diesel prices will rise along with prices paid to the crude producers like us.

I think the notice from Genel has an underlying message which will not be wasted on the KRG.

Genels management team are no fools, they know exactly who is creaming off huge margins right now even if some fool themselves that its "the smugglers".

This is a direct message saying they require a much more substantial slice of the cake, in order to continue current production, thats new investment, debts and sufficient shareholder compensation to grow the company. They like us are also owed millions and the KRG who took crude payment for our crude can currently afford to start paying the IOC's back , what they are owed and greater rewards for current crude produced.

I'm not talking a dollar or two but substantial sums or payment in kind, such as crude trucked to Turkish tankage which is currently happening.

Good chance we are going to witness a decent uptick in fortune soon.

Genel is worse financial position than GKP just needs better returns for its crude as do we.

might see local prices rising a fair bit soon. They need to feed the golden geese.

://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/genel-pushes-for-iraqi-kurdistan-oil-export-resumption-amid-financial-challenges/2-1-1688251

Almost a case here for plain speaking with the KRG from the IOC's. We need higher income in order to develop our oil fields, and they are making a lot more than their share of the $30 initial crude payment, bet it's much nearer $50 or more, that's what we need our correct percentage from. We understand that they are in a Bagdad induced bind, however unless they feed the golden goose it will soon dry up and everyone looses out

Hi Starsalign,

I suspect if the Kirkuk pipeline did flow it would enable Baghdad just to say, 2we are exporting from the cheapest producer", and then ignore all the other factors like development costs in the mix here. They clearly are ignoring these valid points.

Exporting at $30 a barrel, does not do us a great deal of good either, however I strongly suspect when all the totals from the export route are added up, they are making one hell of a lot more than $30. By this I mean, tarriffs, taxes, final payments, plus of course part of the initial $30 paid.

Key aspect from the report..

"The pipeline, repeatedly targeted by ISIS militants, is now ready to pump crude oil from Kirkuk to the Ceyhan export terminal," the source added. However, the resumption of exports hinges on a deal between Baghdad and Ankara."

Ankara has a lot more money and investment tied up in the Kurdish crude export pipeline than this one. It also holds positions in the Kurdish IOC's. If it allows crude to flow down this pipeline it will get much less income and they know it will make the odds of getting the kurdish pipeline flowing again even more remote.

Everyone sees it as a ruse to blackmail the Kurds even more which is exactly what it is.

Next thing if Turkey agrees, Baghdad will want more dilution water flow from its dams, and Turkey losses out even further and Baghdad wins.

If Baghdad would agree to the IOC's requests for honouring of legal contracts both flows could resume, along with more water from the Turkish dams. SOMO could keep control and IOC's paid in BOPD delivered into Turkey.

However Iranian influences within Baghdad and its judiciary will prevent this from happening while at the same time offering unacceptable terms to the IOC's which they know are unfair, giving them the excuse of blaming others for holding up any Kurdish pipeline restart.

Unfortunately the Kurdish export pipeline is now Political and not just financial, with every side trying to latch previously unattached conditions to it .

I live in hope but do not realistically expect to see any crude being exported by pipeline to Turkey.

"Just keep on trucking".

Yes, has someone got wind of something. Its highly unlikely that our company with a large amount of cash both in the bank and coming in will let the share price be walked down.

So either way its a good punt.

Now increased dividend a bit to investors.

For me I'm going to increase my stake, as I'm thinking the company already has achieved strong growth might be starting to return investment to shareholders.

Just the start of a continuing trend.

Great to see the company making decent progress after a very shaky start.

Nice post Theoryman thanks for your contribution.

What Iraq actually needs to do is seriously re negotiate its OPEC quota, as once you look into it there are no hard and fast formula on how the results or quotas are obtained.

Indeed Iraq could make a very compelling case why in fact the Saudi quota and the Iraqi one should be reversed.

This is known by all and for years Iraq has struggled to make its quota with Saudi stepping in. Now they can its time to get income flowing like its been rewarding the Saudis for years, and remove some of the poverty many Iraqis find them selves in.

Saudi wont like it, as it will effect their grand ideas for billions planned for a new meggacity. However meeting people s basic needs comes before some Kings future plans which might take longer to achieve.

Will they be bold enough to make this step, I doubt it unless Iran wants it.

I see those arrested for the drone attack, have been released by the judiciary with pro Iranian views, another fact pointing to the huge amount of influence Iran now has in Baghdad.

Indeed there is no incentive at all to get Kurdish crude flowing down the pipeline currently, unless they were foolish enough to start doing it just to see SOMO slash the throughput quoting OPEC restrictions.

Quite frankly Baghdad cannot be trusted.

So the KRG can afford to start paying their debts to the IOC's.

Ahh you mean from all the IOCs combined, I'd wager you are well light on that fig, all the corruptive tolls , border taxes and backhanders end up with them as well. Plus Id wager a good slice of the crude profit when sold at international rates.

They also need to understand that no one outside Iraq goes there to do business for the love of Iraq. The lack of hygiene, infrastructure, oppressive heat with limited electricity compound that joy.

Throw in corruption at every point you can think off, and believe me they are the best in the world at corruption and if its not secured and you blink its gone. Security is also another major issue.

The population have inherited it and its expected at every level. Costs go through the roof and thousands of projects go unfinished, or finished but then the for example supply power cables get ripped out for scrap overnight, or anything remotely sellable goes walkabout, so it falls into disrepair on day 2.

They cannot get western investment because quite frankly they are totally untrustworthy. Letting an IOC take all the risks then trying to cheat them out of their just rewards is a classic example.

They tried same thing on with TOTAL, and had to give in when total said NO.

Then they are surprised when attempts to attract further investment fails.

They need to take a long look in the mirror.

Can see where you are going with this Broadford. Clearly potential for backhanders.

I actually think its not a good time to sell right now. Thats because we know decent money is coming and always possibility of a windfall divi. Do believe the time to sell has passed, better of waiting now or could lose out big time.

In my opinion they are the very worst, they didn't get the nickname " The vampire Kangaroo " for nothing. Asset stripped near on everything they have touched.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/why-the-british-are-calling-macquarie-the-vampire-kangaroo-20160914-grfobp