Member Info for belgrano

Hi Swell,

Agree it was a good probability, but it was not certain, also the bots action just before the announcements today make this look like a leak in my eyes.

Does arouse suspicion that the intense bot buying we saw yesterday was due to leaked news of these RNS's.

Nice RNS, money returning to shareholders plus buybacks to force up the price. Coupled with middle east news and rising crude prices I dont think its unreasonable to estimate share price to rise to similar levels we saw previously with the last lot.

That's a fair bit higher than we are now so potential opportunity here for everyone to get a little more.

Must confess

I've been quietly grabbing a few chunks of stock, its one of those times when you have a feeling you might well look back in a few months and really wish you'd been real greedy right now. Going by the rafts of one way trades it does seem I'm not alone by a long way.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-pares-gains-after-strongest-weekly-rise-over-year-2024-10-07/

we track crude prices to some degree so will probably rise here shortly

Share price is making a breakout. time to hang on, we know from experience how quick this might move.

I think the trait your are referring to Truthsayer is jealousy from those who see the Jews prospering and sharing things together. When you see interviews and the first thing they do is bring up history of events that happened many decades ago clearly they are still possessed by bigotry and hate.

Its even worse when they are in positions of power, just got to let it all go, life really is too short for hatred.

Why don't Hamas just release the hostages they still hold, and not murder them in a brutal way which is happening.

This would be seen as a companionate act which I'm sure might be a prelude to peace, if really wanted.

Iraq does need to get its house in order. By all means have sympathies with Iran, and offer food, but do like Eygpt does and stop short of violence. Having armed drone come from Iraq to attack Israel, should be stamped down hard on.

Kurds have a military, they need to protect their own assets, and should be backed by Baghdad. Iraq is not Iran.

If not its a sure sign that the rot has spread too far , and might see "accidents happening" to those officials who back Iran.

Seeing the Iranian minister on TV this morning, they certainly don't want peace at all.

It would mean they dont need smuggled oil in Iran, but Turkey would welcome such trucks with open arms.

However you have only to look at some of the professional estimates of crude prices in such an event...and probably now odds on. ...and we will see Baghdad becoming very willing indeed to settle overnight.

They will be pushing max rates on both those export pipelines.

Gulf entry premiums are about to go through the roof, was already $2 per barrel, time to start stockpiling Crude I think and defer that shutdown.

Israel wants to damage Iran's economy by hitting its oil and gas infrastructure. This way it wont be able to afford to continue dish out weapons to its proxies.

Just taking one of its three 330K BOPD refineries, using indigenous crude feedstock , I bet it turns out up to 50M a day profit, or something of that nature when at max.

Forget the lost production, people don't really realise the cost of replacing this equipment if taken out in the most damaging way by Israeli strikes. Just two large plants within a similar sized refinery that I used to control would cost over £1,000 Million (yep these figs are accurate) to replace, with long lead times.

So the whole refinery will nearly treble that, so not only would it KO the production but give huge replacement costs and down time. They have a golden opportunity to do it as well.

Iran already saying they will hit Israel's offshore gas facilities, as they are clearly worried already.

The 1M buy is completely within the market rules, and the MM's could have released news of the transaction in another 2 days time if they wished.

However there is another way of looking at the transaction and it is possibly the right one.

Its fairly common knowledge that SA might release news of another possible acquisition, or early royalty inflow from Croda, or even advanced notice of decent orders.

Pretty odds on that a rabbit of one kind or another is going to pulled this week. As many know a lot of news to be released soon.

Now given SA's track record of time lines slipping, is it no surprise that a big player might just be sitting there with a decent wedge of dry powder just waiting for confirmation of high likelihood of that release.

Then just 8 mins later after release the 1M buy drops, which might be an initial one?

Pre-set up...yes clearly, I however cannot blame anyone for that, given the circumstances.

Just a thought...with all the Sederma clients getting samples of product., if a few really liked it and just knew it was going to be a big seller just going by market experience and sample effects, nothing to stop them privately buying stock here, or sharing the info that they think its going to be lucrative.

Sort of goes hand in hand for the request Stuart had for a rights issue recently.

I'm not so sure about being over in a month. Israel wants to remove Iran's ability to use its oil dollars to give weapons to its proxies, and reduce its oil income radically. This also plays into uncle Sams hands as its been very effective in avoiding all sanctions and selling 3M BOPD plus to China who just don't care.

So if its effectively destroyed using methods described early on , it will put back Iran a few years for sure. It will also damage a lot of its domestic power generation, and ability to export refined products which complete in international markets.

However that may not be the end of the matter by a long way. Consider the above completed. It may then try to close the straight to all tankers using the republican guard who are itching to get involved. Then its tanker protection from USA warships and must be higher prices everywhere, unless you can export by pipeline direct to Europe.

8 mins after the RNS appeared, and at the time could have been a buy.

SA is unlikely just to turn up promising us more jam tomorrow, as he might find things a little hot. I expect its an announcement of something and he will be explaining things. Hopefully a Croda update to get the ball rolling.

Firstly well done to the company for the meet, all need to here exactly whats going on and most importantly at the same time.

I'll be tuning in for sure and already getting questions ready.

Yes excessive remuneration on a non profit making company is a huge red flag.. but its not my red flag its the red flags of industry stock professionals, linked to which has already been shared.

I want the share price up...and don't like to see those red flags which do put new investors off buying stock.

This is not my view, but the industry pro's views, I want to see green flags.

I do see profit here from current buy in price, but sort out the above and I can see one hell of a lot more potential and I for one would have purchased a lot more stock than I currently hold.

So I'm actually trying to help by highlighting the investment industry concerns.

I agree roger, wars are never good. However certainly believe this is now nailed on. Already seeing every tanker on Karg terminal turning off tracker and doing a disappearing act.

Clearly Iran trying to get its arms closer to Israel, so why access roads have been bombed to slow them down, while more local targets are strike priority. It will also take time to program missiles accurately and this must be done perfectly. So probably a couple of days grace before main launch. Clearly proxy allies of Iran been given green light as a uk tanker got hit a day ago by a sea based drone, and they have just hit a grain ship en route to Iran.. home goal there I think.

Also highly possible if Karg gets hits Iran may try to close the straights of hormuz to all tankers to try and hurt USA by forcing up crude prices. This is when our export pipeline will be very valuable indeed. Might even pay us what we are owed to fast track it into service if this happens.

He's had ample opportunities to invest at low digits and hasn't. When pressed he will say "in a closed period" or "already has millions of options when share price breaches 80p and a £1." However that's more jam tomorrow and no true skin in the game.

When a CEO is really behind a developing company which they believe is going to do really well they take a small remuneration and buy stock cheaply.

The opposite is also true....now which one are we?

Hi Farris, I've heard SA use that excuse a few times already.

I'd love to call him out on that one face to face ..no prisoners...... One for the few with access maybe..?

Cuts no ice with me I'm afraid.

Also taken a small position back as well, can't get em all right, but if I'm half right this could go a long way very quickly.

Thanks for the kind words guys,

Well post today is about the middle east conflict as I believe its about to influence the fortunes of GKP in a way I would never have envisaged a few weeks ago. So although it starts off topic its very much on topic.

Biden has been consulted about targeting missiles at Irans refinery's. This is because I doubt the oil complexes have been "pre-programmed", and needs USA assistanceto accruatley target them.

If they want to KO Iran go for a year , just go for the tank farms which gives impressive photos, however to knock them out for 4 full years should target, Main electrical sub stations/ control rooms/ major distillation towers and vent gas compressors. These have very long lead times and are specialised. oohh and the last hit to the pump house used for firefighting. Iran produces 3M BOPD with main market being china, thats why its now Iraqs customer of choice.

Prices of crude and gas will surge, Iran will not be able to supply Iraq with gas and electrical supply will be doubtful.

All opec members will have to increase production to max, and Iran wont want trucked crude. Iraq will want the turkish pipeline flowing. Depending of severity of strikes they could be out of action for years.

UK petrol and electricity /gas prices will surge .

SOH needs to come clean to investors and stop hiding behind a dreadful performance. List them out with the likes of TATA etc then put against it a blow by blow account of what happened, what revenue was raised, and where we are exactly today.

Throw in a "what went wrong", and he might be forgiven. He did all these announcements via RNS so investors deserve a blow by blow report, and nothing rolled up or summarised.

I for one doubt he's got the gonads for it. Then lets discuss his remuneration.