Member Info for belgrano

Thanks for clarifying AS. I was using his spoken words from the pre-recorded clips included in the latest presentation, where the ex Croda expert used the words "good" about three times and each time SA echoed "very good", which isnt quite the same and something I picked up on.

We know SA is exuberant, and the Croda expert might just be more reserved in his professional opinions, which is also common, but those were the actual words spoken.

I actually agree with yourself that it does sound a good few notches up as well. Lets hope the Croda customers agree also.

"If its viewed better than whats currently available there is a chance that they all will want it, then it will get really silly", This was said privately to me.

Think we should accept a modest first royalty payment from Croda, however although I'm expecting a modest amount going by the previously announced amount of over 10%, I'm not expecting a ridiculously low figure either.

This is critical in forward planning just what the revenues might be.

Hard cash will propel this company forward as a business, promises of more to come will not.

We know Croda turn over multi millions in sales, and I've been ridiculed previously by explaining how a pot of £100 "look younger but poorer", cream base ingredients might be pennies per pot. Agree pennies make pounds, but if royalty comes out at say £500, but we hope to treble it next year, its not going to cut the mustard.

However and must use true balance here, if plenty of customers want to include it as a mainstay product all those sprinkles will add up, and we will have a great success on our hands. say one tenth of their 12k customers want our sprinkles, it s a nice £600K per annum.

We have heard from the Croda expert that he thinks our product is good. He said good, SA said very good. Croda customer feedback will be key this fall, however on balance and going by the comments of the Croda expert, the probability of success here is good.

Thanks for the update Blumagnet, at least the parties are still talking, although nothing has changed with Baghdad trying to cheat oil companies in Kurdistan still by inflexibility and comparing apples with pears.

More like a PR stunt and all parties know it.

Trying to offer $6, while Chinese companies who have passed over bungs get up to $30.

Those clowns don't fool anyone but themselves, and showcases that Badhdad is not a place to do business to those in the West.

Yes Elrico, company house audited reports just a couple of years ago showed much small sums than currently forecasting.

I like explore every possibility and make sure I don't get caught out.

Its not negativity just good caution and probably why my large purchases in the 10p point just a week or so ago are doing so well. It's not 7 figs like I held previously, but not far short. I apply it to all stocks but more so high risk ones like this where many investors sit on huge paper losses.

So I'll be quite frank if I smell something rotten, I'll be out out real quick and tell you after. Just like I did before in the low twenties, a couple of years ago and moved into safe banking and defence stocks. . Investors laughed then and said "good riddance", but who's laughing now.

I don't wish to give offense, as collectively we must pool information. However please dont anyone wear rosy glasses or think we are out of the woods, as things might easily bite us collectively on the arris from where we least expect.

As a clear example... going from the company broadcast meeting SA repeated rightly so that he could not discuss Croda business and need for confidentiality. He then told us that the company strain submitted to Croda came from a Hans Christian strain and Croda could not use it. They then found another and have gone with it. Daft to say this, as if I was in competition with Croda it would be a light bulb moment, or Croda itself??. .I don't need to spell this out any more.

So if things went pear shaped and we went bust remember Stuart has no skin in the game ( why not) just a huge salary, he could walk tomorrow with no loss, while many here would be financially hurt.

Someone sold 1.3M shares today at 11am.

I did view the current value of SBTX when the forced 9p sale was taking place at 12p. Since then we have taken over another small company so its increased to say 15p, and roughly that's where we are.

Clearly synergies exist, however the previous filed company reports on our acquisition point it to being OK, but lets not over egg it. Previous audited finances didn't match what some are projecting for next year, by a long way.

As future results reveal themselves that price will either rise or fall accordingly.

This is without pricing in potential future gains or losses.

Clearly speculators can drive the price, but we also have realists who sell into those rises, and they have deep pockets.

I believe that's where we are at today.

The days of pure speculation driving price to 30-50p are long gone. Investor memory strongly remembers a list of OPTI deals with companies like TATA etc, where Millions in sales were pencilled in and investors purchased a lot of stock.

Yes thats a different company, but linked and we too have skeleton's, and live in a glasshouse.

Hard results will drive us forward... Or skin in the game at this level, will remove some current red flags.

Hi Elrico,

I agree with your points but feel you may have missed mine, which was pointing out that if investors had a 15p/share exit price, they would not have been able to depart in Aug, but possibly could do so now.

Many don't care about how well they might do next year, how much they can make this tear is more important to them.

With a high risk share, sometimes a bird in the hand is better.

Point was we will see increased resistance to rises past 14p.

Trading action we have seen this morning does bear that out.

Price will rise if positive news flow continues, but at a more steady rate, which I actually prefer as we must have a lot of momentum and swing traders on right now looking for hot money.

If it is them, and I actually doubt it, it might be a larger sell which might take a few trading sessions to complete, so there wouldn't have to issue anything until order has gone through.

However share price will now attract more selling activity as in AUG the price reached 14p , which gave everyone who had purchased since the last high in Feb 24 on the interim dip an exit point. However if your price target then was nearer 15p , you could not have sold then so more likely to do so now if your reasons for selling and targets have not changed with latest newsflow

Yep I should chill. plus its not new news as already known which should not effect share price apart from dilution.

Stock off to a good start, whatever Elrico exposed must have been good.

Cant see any mention of a lock in period either.

This is the bit I didn't like about the secured loan, not just the 13% interest, but the 2,348,624 shares at 10.64p

As the purpose of the secured loan would be known, so had insight that the shareprice would rise.

going by a basic sell price of 13.3p yesterday and if able to offload tomorrow at that price would offer a nice £62.5K uplift or a cool extra 6-7% on the loan rate.

Adyan, Spot on post Sir.

Know many investors would rather see the first green shoots of Royalty payments before committing either base funds or further funds.

This is because it de-risks the stock purchase more and starts putting a timeframe on returns. Doesn't have to be large amounts, most happy with a very modest start.

Clearly they know full well that they will pay more for stock, and are actually happy to do so.

I believe that will also appeal then to large institutional investors then.

Nothing I'd like more than a couple of big ones step in and buy the OPTI holding outright.

We've had some good news with the acquisition , and the hope of possibly some Croda payment this year. Its good but keep in perspective, as I can think of several ways this could go pear shaped, as still plenty might upset this applecart.

Did expect to see those sells today dry up as the stock is picked up by those hoping for greater returns.

Just to add,

There has been no bad company news to cause a true reversal, you will see that as the price has settled a tad, the sells will soon stop because gains are not enough to warrant a quick sell. It wont just continue down again for long as fundamentals have changed.

Some investor/traders might pull a little off the table but continue to hold the majority.

Or true investor just buy and hold.

The dip represents potential entry point, or top up position.

Hi Mad,

Lets look at things from a cold traders perspective. We know most of us do this at times some swing more one ways than others? I wont condemn anyone for taking a profit.

share price just a week ago crashed due to hurried seller.. that was clear to see and with company news due on a couple of fronts represented great top up or new entry position.. I am in this boat. Also saw strong trading signs when I took stake of others doing similar.

Since then nice company news released that caused shareprice rise of 19% in a week. Great return for your money.

Forget whatever the news is..thats jam tomorrow, they will take profit today, and if the price retraces too far might even enter again.

Reason I say this, is because its exactly what my target price was.

Agree with you about rising further, and I do believe we will see it a fair bit higher over the next 8 weeks.

Not surprised at all to see a few sells in the 13.00-14.00 p range. It was actually my target before I listened to the presentation and talked to a few other investors.

Actually surprised not to see a lot more, so can only conclude that many have come to the same conclusion, than rather than being an easy couple of pennies gain from a distressed sale, the company is going through a fundamental re-rate following the acquisition, with potential to profitability next year.

Where would the re-rate sit if the fair value from the distressed sale is something like 11p.

In my book probably a high end teen, and it does appear going from the trades that others feel likewise.

Might be wrong either way here, however one thing I'm positive about is that investor confidence has returned with this stock, and that's hugely important.

Thisismoney.. stockwatch.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13950949/MARKET-REPORT-60bn-wiped-Tesla-Robotaxi-launch-falls-flat.html

I think you have struck it pretty lucky on your entry timing Oleric and those that topped up or purchased recently congratulations.

I see we have a late reported sell of 864, 350 shares which could well be the last of that big overhang which has been preventing the price from rising much.

We know from experience when the brakes are released on this stock just how fast it can rise and the overhang finished is taking off the brakes, also by talking to other investors on the phone this weekend that my view that this stock is about to do a re-rate is definitely shared. Also the wife of Mr.Mould ex director of BTS was also listed as a director so suspect another salary was drawn there as well, which is another modest saving.

With the purchase of the new company SA and our chairman can replace the retiring CEO. This will generate salary saving right away depending on how much the retiring CEO was taking from the company.

I enjoyed listening to the presentation today. Have managed to build quite a decent stake recently, as the signals all indicated that a easy couple of pence gain sometime over the next couple of months was certainly odds on. Did intend to turn them into a small profit.

However when carefully listening to the meeting today it does appear that Stuart may finally be at the start of a home run into company profitability thats been lacking for 5 years.

This is something that the market really will stand up and take notice of, plus its without money from Croda.

Good news is the time frame to income is not that long, so does make me wonder whether we are on the verge of a stock revaluation, so selling now may turn out to be an expensive error.

SA reads these posts and knows what we think about his performance to date and whatever way you cut it its not good.

We know a few items where due to fruition this quarter, and the meeting has been called at short notice.

He does have an opportunity to really set this stock alight, as long as he can produce the goods and a decent royalty with promise of a lot more to come, perhaps enhanced with some gushing Sederma customer comments about our product would really tick my box.