Member Info for belgrano

For me it was the brilliant post by AS, showing EU retinol reduction rule coming in 2027, as well as other products giving suppliers little choice but to reformulate, with ours as the best alternative on the market.

In my view significantly increases chances of the big Croda launch being a stunning success. Other investors now share this viewpoint I know and can see an opportunity to easily double their investment or more in a relatively short time frame.

Right now to buy its orders only.

It was discussed previously that our royalty of say 10%, is not on the "sprinkles", or the cost of the "sprinkle tank", it comes from but the sale of the whole tub from which our sprinkles are added.

So say the tiny 25kg container of mixed "look younger" cream sold from Croda to say client Revlon for £250 (£10 per kilo), royalties to SBTX would be £25.

Or the more industrial sized 1000kg IBC at same prices cost £10k, with £1000 royalties payable to SBTX.

And I agree, the wording margin, marginal cost, variable costs are a minefield in its self.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marginalcostofproduction.asp

Think we are both aligned that due to circumstances this launch has a very high probability of being a huge success.

hi dustbin,

appreciate your views please lets keep it civil and make sure we are both talking about the same things exactly which i don't think we are.

i am talking from the actual price paid on the base mixed ingredients from croda to say estee lauder to the actual price paid by the customer paid by the customer for his "look younger cream with added sprinkles".

i know of a few shop retailers whose products had a 400% margin. that's before we add on vat and taxes. even the fancy pots and packaging some of this stuff comes in costs a few quid each in some cases.

what you were thinking in the margins including packaging, distribution and retail /shop/taxes cost, where i was talking base purchase to end point. i still stand by my *** packet figs.

in some cases 400% is low, such as mobile phones, optical glasses, where it runs into thousands of percent .

Just to clarify it is double digit royalties on the product sales to clients. That is total price not the price of a "sprinkle".

That's not on the shop or online retail price what the customer pays.

I did write an article a while back giving an example of how a pot of cream might cost a couple of quid for the product but retail for £125, in which case royalties at 10% would be 20p.

The mark up and profit from £2 to £125 belongs to Crodas clients and retailers.

Believe this is where some confusion rests.

However just like the gold miners in the Klondike gold rush , best profits are selling the pans and picks, and Croda do turn over a huge quantity of product on a global scale.

We also have the rights to package and retail the product as well, although I don't think our latest acquisition can handle creams, but might be wrong there.

Clearly dependant on the actual royalty size, If most of its trusted customers decide to reformulate, and I'd wager some decisions already completed in the actual spoken words of our board "things could get really silly very fast".

Mr. Market and the many shrewd investors here will see that happening almost straight away, and I know many here can recall just how fast our share price can move .

I do not believe that in this scenario, and taking into consideration the topics discussed here today which defo increase that possibility, that Croda sat on a large war chest wouldn't try to buy us out, probably starting with its biggest holder as a stock acquisition. (possibly going for OPTI first, then getting its holding here as a free carry).

I also think SA judging from his reaction when asked similar question recently , would be adverse to it as long as it was in the interests of all shareholders and clearly above his strike price.

Part 2..

Entirely different perspective completely, and Croda will be showcasing our product as the replacement.

Ohhh...and the new purpose build production line is ready to roll.

Bet most on here never saw that one coming, but we'll take it willingly.

Yes Whackery it is, just my way I wrote it, and was unable to copy protected links to show it as I've spent some decent time researching the additives and marixtyl.

SBTX lysate is a better replacement for retinol, which is being banned in current high concentrations by the EU.

So now we see the much clearer Croda plan for the grand launch showcasing SBTX lysate.

Its 12k clients are coming along and perhaps a few would want to reformulate using our lysate to replace retinol as its just a better product, however with the EU directive coming into force banning higher strengths of retinol, all those using retinol are going to have to reformulate or remove products from sale.

Entirely

It appears many skin care products contain retinol and matrixyl 3000, and with the forthcoming EU restrictions on vit A in high concentrations in retinol many producers will be going to the Croda launch with not just an interest but a need to reformulate. Other creams just have retinol which is known for tightening skin junctions.

Now look at our product and in SA's own words "significantly increases elastically within the skin, and reduces water loss". So its a great product replacement and Croda has the production line ready to churn it out.

Its also more natural, and retinol currently does have some side effects like sunlight increasing skin sensitivity, so its actually an improvement and superior product regardless.

Having potentially thousands of Sederma clients who have to reformulate due to regulation of products being removed from shelves , or even having clients saying "is my half used pot safe to use now its deemed bad by the EU", is another driver in my book that with cause all the customers clients who use retinol in their products to want to reformulate sooner than later.,,, Its not a nice to have, they have to do it.

Thanks Bazz, will take a look.

And a cracking post AS, didnt know the EU was clamping down on retinol in only a short time frame in production terms. A fact I was not aware of and bound to be a motivator for companies to alter formulations to comply.

An actual EU rule which might yet yield big benefits...A first.

Hi Bazz,

One mans negative is another mans balanced. I've been caught a couple of times before and now I'm super wary, and try to join all the dots I can. This approach has believe me really paid dividends over the last 4 years verses a more "put in the btm drawer and see" approach. It really does work, and if you've followed my open posts will see those stocks I've invested in and roughly what price.

However as I'm happily retired I do have more time to investigate the angles, and although I might often post negatives as I see them I also try to get the answers as well and share them, clear recent example being SA's lack of "skin in the game", On which he did answer my poised question nicely at the recent chat on Friday.

If I see negatives I will air them, as I might be wrong, and pleased to be corrected at times, however even if not it doesn't stop me investing either, I just take it into account when looking at the share price. I'm not after a low share price for sure, and I purchased nearly 7 figs when we were languishing at 11p, so already well into the blue. My actual strategy then was to trade them for an easy 2p gain,(and a nice cruise) but the 2nd acquisition announced by luck just a few days later really made me re-evaluate that position into a decent hold, to where we stand today.

I tend to only hold long term onto boring banking and defence stocks which dive good dividends, and try to plan a potential exit strategy

Fully agree AS, as stated full bells and whistles... and literally the million dollar question is whether it will end up being "soft". Clearly I'm exploring all avenues here which is due diligence.

I'm not after inside info, but we ran our own tests on the product and in essence Croda repeated them, just to check the claims.

Now our test info should be available, and matrixyl data has been out for a good while so is well known. So what I'm after is not inside, its just sleuth work, with potentially good rewards.

Might seem as sailing close to the wind, but if I'm putting in 100k plus of my hard earned I like to know.

Clearly brings up another question as yet unanswered and this would be inside.

"what are the effects if you combine our product with Matrixyl 3000".

Its decent forums like these when we combine efforts can produce some stunning results which benefit small investors like ourselves verses the big institutionals.

It was a very good interview and well handled by Elrico, well done Sir.

We now know that Croda are pressing ahead with a full bells and whistles launch in Spring, however we should never think for one minute that its a done deal and our shareprice will climb. When I look back in history when that games been played with other inspiring stocks with friends, the result was more often than not lower than from the time we made our guesstimates.

So for us right now moving forward I have one question, and some on here just might be able to answer it, or part of it.

If we were to put our product and Matrixyl 3000 side by side, how would each compare against the other in factors like dewel, suppleness etc.

Did hear a couple of years ago that it seemed superior, but can anyone else recall any rough percentages? We know Matrixyl is synthetic.

Reason is clear...Its what sedermas customers will be asking exactly, and the answers on which this launch will fly or become a soft /pilot one.

From todays presentation SA does certainly seem confident that Croda are most certainly going for a blockbuster launch next spring.

He clearly knows some numbers and is rightly keeping them to himself, however does seem very upbeat about forthcoming events.

Some steady buying going on, hearing rumours of a coke tie up, but nothing concrete... defo something leaking here.

That was one of my top ups blanchflower, but the mm's wouldn't let me get the next 380k odd one without an order, luckily grabbed it before price rose.

Cant believe some peeps selling now, must need funds urgently.

They want stock again as could have sold over 1m easily in one go, as I did a dummy trade, and could see they only had sub 900k available which is in safe hands now.

Good chance this price has more legs in it yet even without a counter offer. its a good investment as it stands right now on a small timeframe

Has SOH stepped down?

What we like to see gents "a good morning rise".