Member Info for belgrano

Hi Itsaponzi,

Market volume does indicate much higher likeliness that we are at the btm of the recent retrace with barely 300 k trades today. Of course that may change yet but market signals are not pointing towards further drops and certainly not the wishful thinking ones you are advocating. Clearly you are currently out, so perhaps its time to retake a position.

all the best B.

Hi Broadford,

I wonder whether there is significant differences between what was published and what get received. Like say a chairman suddenly coming up with very generous donations...all for good causes mind...remember that one?

According to the spokesperson of the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), Myles Caggins, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has not yet submitted copies of the oil contracts to the Iraqi government.

Now why is that we might ask ourselves, firstly we see the Iraqi oil ministers in effect trying to see how low the IOC's will go and at the same time, whilst claiming to want a deal, actual actions are miles apart.

Now they want to see contracts while maintaining that non shifting stance, clearly they don't want to work things out but are actually looking to see how much the KRG are making from the contracts, or creaming off the top. Depending on which way you view things

Because the KRG dont trust Baghdad, bet its the reason the contracts have not been submitted, and in all fairness the proven actions of the Baghdad ministers to date, and even last week, tend to prove their reasoning correct.

A sceptical person might also say the KRG also have a lot to hide, I couldn't possibly comment?

So they have at least part closed the short below the threshold by buying the stock back.

Also says by closing they believe the price is more likely to rise from here otherwise they would have kept it open or even increased it.

Probably a very good time to get back in if currently out.

Sry for this off topic but oil related.

What I would like to see right now would be a drive by UK (with USA backing). To develop these crude oil reserves using the very best practices in the industry. This would change the balance of world power back in favour of the west and stop all reliance on Russian/ Arab oilfields.

Massive undertaking, huge investment and employment .

I'd invest right now if I knew the best places to do so.. well worth a read.

https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/wheres-the-oil-2024-06/#:~:text=The%20oil%20reserves%20in%20the,over%20the%20last%2050%20years.

Hi space Tomato,

I actually feel its a crying shame that Baghdad acts the way it does, by trying literally to drill down on costs to a minimum, they fully invite every shortcut in the book with oil field development which is almost certain to seriously lower recovery amounts than would have happened with the western majors. Some of the safety shortcuts are indeed shocking, with many cases of cheap valves etc being stalled with the non ideal spec for the sulphurous crudes encountered. Also workmanship quality, and reusing old gaskets and that kind of thing and ignoring small leakages everywhere due to these poor practices.

Its why the big companies cant really compete with many eastern ones ...they ignore H2S leaks and don't wear the best PPE.

If you pay peanuts you get monkeys..

Just that they have such a decent potential revenue stream, but the majority live in squalor, without even power 24/7, with poor hygiene, and little employment that's not "created for them".

While the few at the top enjoy massive wealth not from drawn salaries or earned, but from corruption.

The way they are going it wont improve, and they do have a fast closing window to improve things, before it really goes downhill with rising temps and reducing demand for oil. They just don't see it or don't really care.

Hi Space Tomato,

Not sold a single one, and if you look back at my posting history will see I've bee very critical of Iraq ministers for weeks.

I believe we can get to over 150p a share by just continuing the buybacks and have already stated happy to hold well into next year.

Its not just the IOC's, Baghdad tries to cheat and fiddle every western country, little wonder why decent companies leave Iraq leaving the dross and corrupted.

They are trying to ruin Erbil through green eyed jealousy and religious beliefs. many there still hold the same stigmatised viewpoints that they held years ago when trying to wipe them out. If we deal with the KRG and Erbil those idiots just brand us with the same iron. Some do hold positive viewpoints and want whats best for all Iraqis, but the simple fact is that the majority do not.

Keep with the Kurds, and until Baghdad really wants to be constructive stay away.

I believe everyone needs to really take note from the APIKU talk about what happened on Sunday.

The IOCs went along believing that a compromise deal was possible with Iraq and and a fair deal with tweaked contracts could be worked out to get the crude flowing again to Turkey via the export pipeline.

They met in good faith.

However after meetings conclusion we now have the APIKU spokesman calling Iraq oil ministers "disingenuous".

Which means.......Dishonest, cunning, sly, designing, lacking frankness and candor.

This is dreadful but not surprising to myself who knew it was true. Certainly does not set any base standards for any kind of co-operation and agreements.

He then went on to explain even worse things that he believed there were still many in Baghdad who would like to see the Kurds downtrodden, not treated equal as an Iraqi citizen and happy to sere them out of work.

He didn't say but clearly this is the parties with Iranian leanings which unfortunately control the majority of MP's and the Iraqi judiciary.

Back pay within ten years I believe was just pulled out of the hat, as it will never happen but it cannot be denied that the IOC's are owed these sums.

APIKU believed they were played for a "photo opportunity", indeed zilch progress in over the last year (some may say 12), and with this kind of mindset from the backing majority unlikely in the foreseeable.

Glad to hear the APIKU comments, as it confirms what most suspected and Iraq cannot now claim to be close to solutions, as I expect it was a requirement to get the alternative crude pipeline and water from the dams flowing.

Also suspect it was a sly attempt from Iraq to test the solidarity of the IOC's to see if they could get any companies to break away and agree to their terms.

This point will not be lost on APIKU reps.

Going to be dry in Baghdad later this year.

Over 2m shares now removed from circulation since the buy backs started or 1% of the total starting amount and counting.

Actually a shame that the meetings actually turned out to be a sham, a cosmetic photo opportunity, and the Baghdad ministers were vague as they hadn't anything to offer despite going on the record and saying that they were seriously working towards agreement. With the IOC spokesman saying there are still those in Baghdad that don't want agreement its clear that the meetings are a total façade. I have no hope at all of seeing the crude flowing this year, and by then the losses to Iraq will be $20 billion and they deserve it.

Should stop every cent of USA aid right now.

Hi rogthegamer,

you asked the question " what will likely happen when the current export contract expires next year".

Well I'm led to believe the KRG/IOC's are open to making a new contract with differing rates etc, however for clarity I've already posed this exact question to our board to be answered at our forthcoming AGM. Far better to hear the exact position from our management team so we all know the precise details.

"disingenuous", a polite term for liars, fiddlers and corrupt ministers trying to sniff out weakness or brown envelopes.

No further ahead than a year ago, they offer nothing in return and want everything.

All talk but no real desire for export flows, just desire to blame someone else like the IOC's for their total incompetence.

Then they claim to want western business...total clowns ....they have their hands out quick enough for USA dollars.

I say " carry on trucking", and let the pipeline contract expire next year.

Offering to pay back owed $1B is admission that the figure is accepted and that the money has been embezzled.

Offering to do it over 10 years, means " we will never repay it", by then something else would have happened, rules changed and it will be kicked fore ever down the road".

This money is what investors here are already owed.. Its not a nice to have, its a fundamentally contractual obligation that both parties accepted and investors here put in their hard earned hoping for a decent return.

Now they are trying to cheat investors here directly.

If they cannot pay us in dollars, pay us in crude oil. Say first few shipments from Turkey until all debts cleared.

Now where do you think most of our crude is going..see extract below..

However, this optimism has been met with scepticism by former Kurdish lawmakers. The two main ruling parties, Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are facing accusations of smuggling crude oil via tankers into Turkey and Iran and pocketing the revenues for their benefit.

Former Kurdistan Parliament lawmaker Omar Gulpi took to his official Facebook page on Sunday to assert that the Iraqi federal government covers the salaries of all KRG employees. He called upon both parties to transparently disclose to the people of Kurdistan how they utilize internal revenues and income generated from oil smuggling via tankers. Gulpi revealed that the revenue from oil smuggling via tankers amounted to three trillion Iraqi dinars, equivalent to US$2,294,439,000.00, over the past six months.

and link. https://www.newarab.com/news/baghdad-pays-kurdish-security-forces-after-payroll-audit

Seems that Iraq is actually offering nothing at all that is even remotely acceptable. Clearly playing games and trying it on yet again.

However what we are hearing might be completely inaccurate, however knowing what a bunch of clowns they are I wont be surprised to find it is.

I also believe its worth investigating where the actual stored crude went when the export pipeline was closed.

Most certainly Turkish tankage had some inventory, even if not enough for a full cargo, and at the actual point of ruling they were not allowed to sell it, so where is it now.

I'd wager its not still in Turkish tankage, bet its been trucked away and blended. Possibly payments against some tankage debt or another that's been construed.

Probably some serious value there as well.

Nice post Roxi, and different perspective which I fully appreciate.

Those shorts are certainly not going to like these latest developments. Good to see your target increased as well.

A promise to pay all owed debs by Baghdad does recognise those debts.

so lets current market cap valve right now,,,324M

Minus debt owed by promise to pay.............110M

Minus GKP cash in hand .................................100M

Current value right now = 114M........

Thats stunningly cheap for a hostile takeover...or even a non hostile one. cost to buyer ...50p a share.

Little wonder the company wants the shareprice up, was almost free to a suitor.

However I do agree it opens the door to sales to say a Chinese company.

Roxi,

Got to get real here, do you really believe good old trustworthy TK, didn't deal with them ?????

Or the time when a convoy of oil tankers turned up at our gates and security ordered to take the day off??? ..never to be seen again.

30k bopd and we have a local shortage of heavy oil.... those teapots must have quadrupled in throughput overnight..

All this trucking must take some diesel.?

You are joking right??

10 year payback terms--at 30% annual interest paid due to the untrustworthy nature of the clients.

GKP had to accept something near that when cash strapped years ago, which in effect killed share value for original holders.