Member Info for belgrano

Just looking at the charts, our company yesterday mopped up quite a few sells yesterday which were probably from traders or those just selling the peak hoping to re purchase much cheaper.

So to my mind after such a decent jump we would have experienced a bigger retrace had those purchases not gone in.

So in effect the start of the buyback is working for investors here.

That stock has in effect vanished as well, increasing the value of remaining stock.

It also thwarts the hopes of traders wanting to recoup holdings at much cheaper price.

As well as damaging shorter's hopes of exit with profit.

They can still re-purchase if they wish, just got to pay more or go elsewhere.

Good to hear work still going on to get exports via pipeline going again, but that's great if it happens, not overly worried about that now, just heard it too many times.

Now stock price is settling down we should see more buybacks starting to pop up, our stock transactions value on an average day is not that high so a spread out say 400k a day spent on purchases will make a big difference.

Good news for the holders here.

After a reasonable jump, I doubt ant true investors are overly worried to see some profit taking with a dip back on a couple of sessions. I also don't think its correct to jump to any conclusions that the buybacks have completed in any way or that the rise is over. However some posters are wrongly implying that. What we have seen is the normal market reaction to the buyback news, and slowly and steadily once the euphoric dust has settled we will start to see even more tangible results on what could be a succession of monthly buybacks.

All investors here today gain with a lower shareprice because a greater amount of company stock will be liquidated.

I very much doubt anyone will go short right now, although we might see the same posters urging others to do so and lose money, while doing it themselves.

Certainly a good time to be loaded up in my humble opinion.

Seems Iraq's latest licensing rounds is actually another failure with only Chinese companies participating and Iraqi ones. They dont mind the required bungs and brown envelopes.

on sites with no oil discovered yet Iraq has agreed to give them almost 30% of the profit in some cases and even above that in others.

Even where there are known fields, access, infrastructure and in cases already producing wells they have had to increase profits towards 10%.

Proves what the Baghdad oil ministers have been spouting about unable to pay is indeed rubbish.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2024/05/11/iraq-opens-gas-and-oil-reserves-for-development-as-it-seeks-to-boost-revenues/

Not really surprised to seethe retrace today. In my book it was expected and probably a good thing. Current stock performance almost before the last RNS and since would have got every swing and momentum traders intrest up and many would have purchased looking for say 10% before they exited the party which they intended to do as soon as resistance was encountered.

No loss at all really in fact an advantage, and I know many investors on here have seen similar tactics and movements with plenty of stock.

Probably another good top up opportunity as the initial surge of interest settles and stock price consolidates.

We all like a steady rise, but as word is clearly spreading real danger of getting a little out of control as liquidity dries up. Will also be a lot of swing traders jumping on due to the clear upward signals the current trend is throwing out. I believe the upswing is manly fuelled by investors buying and not the company broker purchasing.

Clearly the company objective of increasing the share price is starting to work.

and to think 3 sessions ago we had so called investors on here urging peeps to sell into the rise on day 1.

Glad I urged investors not to listen and know many also like me did the opposite and bought.

I know many years ago this stock exploded in value and then crashed, with the majority of investors blaming plenty of people for the first paper and then actual losses. Know I had been discussing some stellar gains at work , and unknown to me a few went and purchased stock here a bit late in the rise and with funds they'd borrowed. When the inevitable crash happened in some way some blamed me for their losses and for not telling them to sell, I know that was unfair but I still felt bad about it. I also was duped and lost at least the value of a decent house, but did keep my shirt on with profit.

So everyone should formulate an exit price or strategy.....The very best ones I've seen for those with reasonable holdings are staged withdrawals which might be something like 1.69, 1.99, 2.49, 2.95 , with some held for long term dividends. That way you take stages amounts off the table while leaving something for the next man, or still have a position in the game. Just my view, appreciate hearing others strategies.

Yes he was a nice fella, we had a few private chats.

When we have seen these type of conditions in the past especially with other companies it can lead to a shortage of stock as intuitional holders know the company is buying so prefer to hold for higher prices tomorrow.

Hope those sorters are holding.

Wondering how the book is looking as don't have level 2 anymore.??? Anyone here???

Well I put my money where my mouth is with a reasonable top up this am.

We are witnessing a swing in investor confidence in this stock now which was not there 6 months ago, that must not be underestimated . We now have our company saying that they believe the current share price is to low and are making moves to change that.

They are holding a decent reserve of spare cash and have no debts.

Now lots of oil companies do share buy backs...so what many might ask.

Well its the scale of it in percentage terms and the time scale, potentially buying back a full 2% of an oil companies stock in just a month using excess cash generated in that month is colossal. big companies buy back a fraction of a percent, in much longer periods.

Says to be underwriting the share price (bar unforeseen bad news), which further builds confidence.

May well continue at this brilliant pace. In some ways its like a 2% monthly dividend, which may continue.

I'd be happy to see it run till the pipeline contract expires.

Good luck to all genuine investors here.

However I do accept that SOMO would like a stable and defined crude quality blend. However it might be a Kurdish heavy blend one. Crude slates do have quite a few parameters with the API just being one aspect, I found the actual breakdown of the crude to be the most important along with critical items like ammonia, and impurities which might cause super active sites when cracked. Clearly sulphur will be a refinery limiter on many if the requirement is to run full.

However some heavy crudes containing long chains produce unequal and large amounts of decent C8-C10 molecules when cracked which can easily be upgraded and segregated to liquids worth ten times the base crude cost. (thats conservative).

We know generally the lighter crudes give more naphtha's, but if you have the complexity like in some of the top nelson index rated sites heavier slates return the best margins.

Hi Broadford,

I welcome all genuine discussion, and sorry if I came across too strong earlier. I accept your viewpoint but to me a couple of other things come to mind which might complicate things.

Firstly the pumping with the multistage crude pumps probably spec'd to a heavier crude grade than than the SOMO one. We both know that any lights can flash in these pumps causing cavitation and damage, so a spec change would require a fair bit of investigation before putting it into use, better to start with what you know (Kurdish blend), and move slowly later on.

Next is the actual agreement which we are not party too right now. May well be the case that SOMO will control the purse strings and sales, but Kurdistan controls the feed quality as long as they achieve the min targets. This is especially relevant if you wanted to continue to supply the light Kurdish teapots, which are just simple flash distillation units. So points even stronger to things remaining on the feed side to what they were before closure.

Best regards,Bel.

Thankyou for your reply Broadford,

Clearly the API of the crude mix would depend of the flowrates from each company so appreciate that it makes it impossible to hit the percentage squarely on the head but have you run any rough calcs to see if in this situation what percentage would be required.

Clearly if pipeline flow, and then control of a new lighter grade come to pass what percentage of our output would fit.

However I do have doubts whether they would actually go down this path today due to the high demand in the med region for heavy crudes. Partly due to Russian flows being diverted more easterly, so not only having heavy crudes in demand but holding up buoyant prices.

Thanks BroadfordBay,

Do you still stand by your claim that the Crude from GKP wont be put into the export pipeline. You expressed those concerns several times, to try and cause negativity. So the expiry of the Ceyhan pipeline wont give the KRG an advantage should be viewed with the same pinch of salt, because I actually believe it most certainly will.

Hi Putup,

I cant really believe that you are urging investors to sell into the rise on day one of potentially a long buyback campaign using in essence spare company float. Really stupid suggestion aimed at benefiting yourself only. Lets look in more detail.

In essence say 5 million shares are going to be bought over the next 4 weeks, and possibly ongoing. That;s over 1 million a week or 200k stock a day. Dreadful time to be caught holding shorted stock , but how much is there..

Well apart from the few million declared, I'd wager a fair bit more is being held by companies that don;t trigger the declaration threshold. They wont like this buy back one bit, and have had to borrow the stock from the bigger institutions in order to sell/short the stock. Bet some of the brokers have ideas who much actually has been shorted, some of which are now acting for the company. Those amounts could easily be more than the value of this initial buyback, so they have to either hold and hope our company has some really bad news or buy stock at a loss and close the loan of stock. Your advice helps the shorters sir, but you are clearly fully aware of that.

It also gives a big message to long holders that the company is enhancing the value of their stock.

Its almost certain that the share price will continue to rise unless we get of course some really bad unexpected news. Thats without the pipeline opening.

With say 5m stock being removed from the register, thats like over 2% of the total holding, and in company terms that's huge. Also in 1 month??, say it continues for a year.....potentially a quarter if prices remained similar which I don't think they will. This is still keeping our company with a positive cash float of 100M which is a brill buffer against any re debt, let alone the 100m plus already owed.

Dont mind your opinions, but dont try and make fellow investors on here loose money..

The company believes from the RNS that its share price is too low and is now also in a better financial position to protect that price.

10M of buybacks is a savvy move, as not only will all existing holders see an increase in the value of existing shares, but also sends a signal to every shorter and trader hoping to buy back in cheaper that when the price drops GKP will be buying. This makes it a much better investment for those investors like myself who invest in a company for the long haul and not try to cherry pick the dips. This is because its now almost putting a safety net under the shareprice which will be gently raised as the share price rises. Turns this stock from a hold to a buy in my books as it derisks it somewhat, regardless if the pipeline opens.

10M and replaceable in a month with funds, and a nice percentage of stock.....

...Dont mind if I do sir?

I'd be surprised if turkey pays anything bar a few envelopes and a promise to work out some reduced payment thats soon forgotten

Nice to hear from a few sources that talks are ongoing to restart crude pipeline flows to Turkey. (Although I still hold my breath there)..No what else may have caused the change of heart in Baghdad..Few things actually come to mind.

1. Requirement to get water from Turkey...thats not new but dry season looms.

2. News filtering through or leaking out, that a great deal of Kurdish crude is currently being exported...This is terrible for them as they get nothing at all and its still getting to international markets. So in effect even though they won the court case, and the KRG agree that SOMO gets to control purse strings of everything via pipeline, if nothing in the pipe, thats what they get.. Plus penalty for no flow , actual loss to Baghdad 12B and counting already. Far better to have flow and control the purse strings even if you pay out 46% or so to the IOC's.

3. its already into international markets, so above board with SOMO, makes no difference at all, just stops KRG or whatever warlord is controlling from trousering all the profit. Turkey must also be doing very well already.

4. Got to do it now or pipeline deal will expire in just over a year and they will lose opportunity to control main source of Kurdistan wealth.

Just a slightly different way of looking at things, but does show more light from end of tunnel.

No investor here should get spooked or worried about Iraqi OPEC quotas, even if it comes from Iraqi officials trying to scaremonger, least of all investors trying it on....... why?????

Thats for years Iraq has consistently failed to even achieve its current 4 quota, with saudi taking up the slack and producing well into double figures despite on paper having half the population of Iraq. They have grown wealthy on this income while Iraq has struggled. They now use the excess wealth in other projects and worldwide investments.

In fact those quotas should in fairness be reversed now Iraq after mainly years and help by companies like ours and the IOC's, to improve its fortune.

The fairness of say having an equal quota to Saudi, or even more is clear to all when you look at history and need for income to fund essential projects like water distribution and electricity via home produced gas consumption.

Will the Saudis like it...of course not, but none will say its wrong.

Clearly with the annual anniversary of the pipeline flow stoppage already passed, DNO are reporting very buoyant sales trades and confirming that demand is exceeding current supply. Also points out that margins are now being reflected on worldwide crude prices and good margins are being made by producers and haulers, Also points out that its crude is reaching all areas of the world now.

Quite simply its large export volumes that are causing this crude shortfall and prices are rising.

Must also be the same for GKP, they cant get enough of our "sludge", also clearly its not being all used in local markets either but going international.

As demand and margins rise, expect we will see some infrastructure works soon. Also very good for shareholders.

The incompetence of the Iraqi oil and gas ministry despite being massively overmanned is simply mind boggling. The previous round 5 gas contracts were sold as being "fast tracked", although it has already taken them 5 years to even get to a contract award stage, however in this meantime they have been dependant on Iran. Or has it been deliberate??

https://www.mees.com/2023/2/24/oil-gas/iraq-eyes-gas-boost-with-signing-of-fifth-licensing-round-contracts/db9621f0-b438-11ed-8230-e9f78a69afa6

Little wonder many companies have quit completely, seems they require financial "enhancements", all the time and still don't proceed. Just like the problems we are currently having.

Got a feeling there are not going to be many takers this time, they think the world owes them a living and they are just too greedy.

I think the following statement says it all …. In a significant announcement, Prime Minister Al-Sudani extended the application deadline for the fifth and sixth licensing rounds by two weeks,

Not surprised at all that they wish to extend the time period. They want as many companies as possible to participate.

Why....Well corruption in Iraq starts the moment you express an interest in helping them.

Participation fees for rounds 5 and 6 are $100,000 each.... Lots of extra payments if successful as well. Nice little earner for nothing, just accepting them at your meetings.