Member Info for belgrano

Hi Roxi,

The majors will never enter Iraq or Kurdistan again. This is due to the oil ministers and those in charge operating a system of blatant corruption, thievery, and double dealings at every level.

The oil majors all now have "codes of ethics", where near on every dollar must be accounted for. Its designed to stop all levels of corruption and even a small deviation are grounds for dismissal. Every employee understands this, is trained on it and must sign up to it.. I did the same when working for them.

I know for a fact, that they want brown envelopes constantly which amount to a minimum 10% of the investment, in some cases more, and unless paid nothing happens, for example the go ahead for a well development plan.

You just cant hide that kind of embezzlement in accounts ( or would even want too).

That's why everyone's coming out of the country , they have themselves to blame.

"According to the source within the Ministry of Natural Resources, Baghdad is serious about aligning the price of oil extraction and the nature of contracts with those in the rest of Iraq. The proposal includes an offer to settle all debts owed by the Kurdistan Region to the companies within a decade."

I hope the above is correct as it just shows the world what a load of outright thieves the Iraqis are. No where is the world would any company after keeping its side of the bargain accept owed money after over a year with nothing, sometime perhaps in the next 10 years (making 11 years). Absolute insult to the IOC's and just shows what rubbish the oil ministers are saying they are near agreement.

Well they are further off than they were one year ago, they are still playing their stupid time wasting games.

Nothing has changed at all.

Sends a strong signal to the rest of the world, "we are uninvest able for any type of business, because we lie and try to cheat on solid contracts, after the contractor delivers".

Roll on next year.

I expect Iraq cat obtain Turkish and Kurdistan permission to commission the old pipeline without first getting the Kurdish one flowing again, even if it costs them a little more in transport fees and to the IOC's.

Well due to the unrest at the btm of the red sea, shipping costs have leaped and they have to accept extra $2 discount per barrel on sales in the gulf because of it.

So a very Large crude carrier carrying 1M tons of Iraqi crude from the gulf is costing them an extra $12M for 6M barrels , as they export over 3M barrels a day thats 6M$ per day lost.

Makes losses to Kurdish IOC's appear cheap.

Little wonder they are now in such a hurry after deliberately delaying things for over a year.

Hope the IOC's take note, give a little bit but play hardball.

I see two major sticking points in our talks.

Will Baghdad be prepared to pay the IOC's more for Kurdish crude, and whether they can actually manage to tweak their laws to enable the enhanced payments to be made.

The second one I'm most doubtful of.

We know that the KRG get a proportion of our profit, If that was donated maybe it could make up the difference.

I really don't believe that now is a time to sell.

Upside potential is just so much stronger than the downside which does most certainly exist.

I am looking to increase holdings as I believe its got serious legs.

Barchart also agrees with a posted 88% strong buy, and 1st and 2nd stock resistance points already breached today.

However it does need to close above those points , but by breaking them already certainly weakens them.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GKP.LN/overview

I don't hold much hope in the talks, but that's just my personal pessimistic view of Baghdad oil ministers who take all but give nothing as compromises. However what reports are mentioning is clearly still differences of contract rates...what a surprise there.. However nothing about back pay or payments going forward...Have the KRG said " thanks for the interest free loan, here's your payments which you are entitled to anyway, if you sign up to much poorer terms with Baghdad.

Baghdad still trying to get western investment.. when they try these type of fiddling tricks, they are beyond the pale.

Firms will take what they can and never look back. Only ones that will operate there are from corrupt states.

I think its because the Iraqi politicians have finally taken note that their action has cost them 15B dollars and counting. While attempts to subjugate the IOC's have clearly not worked.

They know that the pipeline contract will expire next year and unless they do something concrete they will lose out even more.

Also they do still dislike the KRG despite outward views to the contrary. However they would prefer to see Kurdish crude sold rather than oil from Baghdad region, especially if they control the purse strings.

So I'm also in favour of a hardball approach, they caused the stoppage , they claim to want western support, then pay similar to contractual rates as well.

I'm happy to wait till next year. Lets continue the stock buying till then. About a percent of stock gone already and rising.

I agree with you putup, peal hunt do seem to be doing a great job, obtaining stock at minimal price, without causing to much price inflation, just a slow climb which is fine by me. The 60K stock buy at 14:57, looks like another company purchase as well. Guess we'll find out for sure tomorrow.

Just ask the KRG where our money is. The crude was and sold, and the KRG thanks the oil companies for its patience?

Must be an easy paper trail to follow.

Yes we have been seeing some chunks sells as well that made me think a large holder was thinking that fair value had been reached and offloaded a decent chunk for sale to investors or liquidation by our company.

will as in every stock always see some sells as investors get squeezed for capital due to the many life issues that can crop up.

Also for the quite long time this stock languished below say 110p, to any purchaser below this value it must represent a nice easy gain and well done to them.

I hold extremely limited hope on any breakthrough talks at the bequest of Baghdad, they will cheat and lie, try to get kickbacks, and probably get thrown out by the Iranian backed majority in control. They are after envelopes and likely to give next to nothing for it. Better to wait until export contract expires and I've forwarded a couple of questions to our AGM for our board to hopefully answer on these issues.

Just my inexperienced observation currently that it seems its not taking many trades to move our share price. Suspect liquidity at current price is very low, hence the price is moving after only a couple of small trades.

Clearly the broker trying to gain stock at a lowest possible price and is being restricted to only modest purchases.

Shorts in issue now trending down which signals an exit order, they are only doing this because they believe further rises are on the cards.

Yes Theoryman I did see that.

OPEC quotas are literally rough guidance anyway.

Try looking into the rules on how those actual numbers are made up and you soon find that there aren't any firm ones.

Does it go on capita per head, total income per country, industrial might, or potential production, and reserves are the closest I can find which most certainly is not fair for a developing war torn country like Iraq, which is quickly becoming a puppet of Iran, which already controls the law courts and has a majority of MP's. voted in on ethnic and religion ties....

However 15$ Billion lost and rising now is not small beer, Iraq's people have lost the majority of that, and it was caused by the Iraqi oil ministers themselves by their court actions against the KRG and Turkey. Since then they have tried to blame everyone bar themselves for the total mess up they have caused.

Even if they agreed all terms this week and agreed to tweak legislative rules to allow IOC payments, the majority of the ministers with Iranian views will either delay it forever or block it.

So even if we hear great tidings ....don't believe it, that's why I suggested the backpay as a gesture of good faith, get that and yes OK .

There's a country mile between those liars agreeing to allow exports and back pay, than actually getting it.

Well at least Baghdad, KRG and the IOC's are meeting this week to discuss s oil exports. I'm not counting on anything really happening and hope the IOC's don't get tricked into giving anything seriously contractual away. We want our owed backpay as a " show of good faith from the KRG and Badhdad".

Bit like when trying to sell a house should not negotiate with parties not actually in a position to purchase, as it weakens your hand if a genuine buyer comes along and the previous discussion info becomes shared (like estate agents always do).

This is because although the Iraqi ministers they are talking too might mean well, they are just a faction in the Iraqi parliament and they do not hold the majority vote.

Taking an extract from recent article.

"Sherwani believed there are other parties in the Iraqi Federal government aren’t willing to resolve the problem of restoring oil export and don’t want al-Sudani’s government succeed either."

and the link...

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/35211-Budget-deficit-in%C2%A0Iraq-due-to-discontinuing-oil-export

Just my own view of course, but believe its pretty close to the the mark.

145p is still achievable, no stock rises with some bumps and dips which get preyed on. Investors will now see stock being removed albeit at a cheaper price. I don't have issue with that.

Got to view the longer trend and not the day to day manipulations.

Thankyou for sharing Morbox,

At least we now know that a meeting will take place rather than just asking for one.

Article firmly states that the IOC's still require their backpay and future assurances of payment then will consider contract issues. Its well documented that I don't trust the Baghdad politicians and oil ministers one bit, as the distrust has been earned by them. However could always be pleasantly surprised if something positive occurs.

Probably a sweaty week if you are one of the shorter's still holding, or decided to cash out recently as with the buybacks continuing we do have the potential this week for some dramatic jumps in price if something surprising happens.

Https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GKP.LN/opinion#google_vignette

We are most certainty seeing steady up ward pressure on this stock ,with the resistance points edging up almost daily.

The buybacks represent a pretty meaty percentage of the daily trades and with more to come will force the price ever higher .

These facts will not be lost on momentum traders, even without any resolution to the crude export issue.

If the board decide to continue the buybacks after the AGM it will certainly have my blessing and underpins a rising share price. Clearly the cherry on the cake would be export agreement and implementation. In such a case prices towards £2.50 or more would not be extreme, but the devil will be in the detail.

However market sentiment towards this stock from investors is most certainly changing and for the better with more confidence.

Appreciate you view and input Putup, many thanks.

This is an interesting article discussing plans to inject fresh water to enable Iraq to extract more crude from the ground now they are seeing well pressure drop off and natural decline.

Needless to say similar constant delay, and attempts to change contracts by incompetent Baghdad ministers causing issues meaning the long delayed project might never be completed.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Deal-That-Represents-the-Wests-Final-Chance-to-Regain-Influence-in-Iraq.html

Bar chart calling strong buy with stock close to breaking through 1st resistance point of 143p with the second at 148p.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GKP.LN/overview

Most posts yesterday were about meetings between the KRG and Iraq over restarting exports.

This one points at actually having the IOCs along to thrash out all the details. Its also got Baghdad asking now.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2572616-baghdad-calls-krg-iocs-for-meeting-over-oil-exports

However they still might try it on by saving "we've all reached an export deal, thanks very much but cant exceed our OPEC quota", Another reason to hide behind, when the real reason is themselves by having allowed to low a quota and then trying to hide behind it. ...Why??

I also expect "OPEC quotas are for some excellent brown envelope opportunities". Sell your country short, while trousering a nice bung.

The deeper you dig the more rot you find.

I believe quite frankly that the plan is just to underpin the share price while sustaining steady upward pressure. That way it makes it a good investment at the current price. We don't know if a large holder has offered a chunk at say 142p. That way price volitivity stops and the traders go elsewhere along with the shorter's who will have to re- purchase to close positions.

I do have a feeling that there were/are quite a few million shares shorted and some of the action we have witnessed over last few sessions have been positions closing.

We are in no hurry, and I like the slow steady rise.