Member Info for belgrano

Hi AquaeS,
Believe that refers to the actual nuts and bolts and testing of the production line which is not effected so in essence correct. Believe if they think its much more valuable than previously says to me negotiations with top customers would take longer.
I know the team believed that if customers viewed it much better than Sedermas flagship product matrixyl "things could get very silly very quickly" .. Thats an actual quote from our team. Thing is we knew the production line was been built, but not timelines of product sales and releases. Saying income in 2022, gives a very wide margin, however as our company are not calling the shots here, they cannot influence and will probably be the last to know. Some investors who sent me notes believe some share price action very suspicious (See mr. 2k sell put in a brief visit today), and if Croda or their agents were behind it in any way, its in their interests to keep us in the dark a lot longer. I actually don't hold to this viewpoint, but it certainly not impossible at all.

Believe the delay is due to the additional value that's been seen and effects re-valuated potentially upwards. Its not unheard of that when you increase bacterial strain quantities in digestors that the bacterial effects become stronger.
Almost like Darwins principle where there are lots of food and growth species become larger and stronger.
This value upgrade could be quite a lot, but has to be substantiated, repeatable and sustainable. Cannot tell a customer one price then up it two months later, so better to get everything proven before moving forward. Its not the construction side of things at all.

Hi Wac ,
I've never seen it with this stock before but I have with others. I also received some private e-mails where the sender thinks its coming from a company or its agents who have something to gain. For me no comment on that one.
However the repeated 2k sells point at deliberate attempts to try and spook investors to sell by high numbers of sells, although it seems they are running out of stock to actually sell , hence the low volumes.
On other stocks seen large players quietly watch the drop, then it's a case of "thanks very much", as large volumes snap up dirt cheap stock for peanuts, even the "on the bell" sell to try a get a small drop straight away does seem deliberate.
I'm holding fast right now.

Hi Theosus,
I doubt and hope NICE are not looking at this product currently however much better is actually happening, please let me explain.
UK prescription health products, because they purchase decent quantities tend to purchase a very low prices. Also on a global perspective uk is although a decent market is actually small fry. No way would we ever agree to a poor margin deal for the uk and shoot ourselves in the foot for the rest of the world. Bit of a case for short term relief, but loose the huge multi bagger potential in the longer game which us investors are aiming at.
Yes we did the study in the uk, as research and management team are uk based, but have already moved our AXIS production to the world specialists in Amsterdam, a international low taxation and major distribution centre, along with sizable storage able to cope with international quantities.
Soft launch has started, and many small issues and problems have been sorted out, now we are looking at our priority market "with the huge tribe across the pond". Many thousands of samples have been donated to our "NPF partner", for the use for their suffering members. This product which we know works well, has actually been rushed into production ahead of schedule at the request of the NPF, they even had a say in the price point, and are giving us free advertising, while they also look at the product and see the effects on a hell of a lot more members than our study did.
WE know it works well, so can expect similar results with our USA psoriasis sufferers, who will then report back to the mainstay of sufferers in the USA. Thats where the real market will be forged not the uk. Many USA sufferers will probably purchase product directly, as not to trigger their private health care policies, which run similar to car no claims bonus's.
None of these plans could have been achieved without the product and having ample supply ready to back it up when required. Also demonstrates why a soft launch had to be done, believe Stuart and the team were very busy indeed sorting out a lot more teething issues than we know about and believe they would have resulted in unsatisfied customers had the launch been "all guns blazing". This is the last thing we want.

Its worth doing some simple calcs and going on the very conservative side of things its clear to see why a soft launch was the best option by far, bearing in mind no shareholders money is wasted on advertising by this cash conscious company.
Say study of 200, resulted in 60 subscribers for axis product.
say each of them spread the word to three friends , when the product became available from Oct 240 subscribers .
Now 20X that amount of samples sent to NPF, bearing in mind USA customers are used to having to purchase their own meds, going by same ratio equals further 1800 subscribers in a month or so...then they do the same as our uk study members and another 5400 sign up by summer.
By then NPF will be endorsing our product ( our company already looking for full time personnel to help with finances), and by the late summer and some more "enhanced visibility by that point" the multiples could easily triple again. Well into decent profitability, and from a soft start.

Plenty of signs from those that are uninvested and trying their utmost to scare investors, and spread lies and untruths. Clearly some have opinions that the company should have gone for a more highlighted and expensive launch. Clearly they missed the information before the launch, however I suspect they did not and just wish to spread discord.
Company so far has spent nothing on advertising , and has bought product to market a year ahead of schedule. They are working with the NPF who have called us "partners" to aid their many millions of suffering members. We successfully completed a uk study whereas many uk sufferers who participated now endorse axis to their fellow uk sufferers. The same is happening right now in the USA but on a much larger scale working with the NPF for the mutual benefit of their member's.
Worth thinking about that comment for a minute.

Many forget this isn't "Stuarts first rodeo", but a very well thought out business and marketing plan which is under 3 months into a first product launch. No money has been wasted and all is progressing to plan. Don't let anyone fool you into parting from your stock cheaply. Yes the share price is low, and many wrongly try to associate that with things going wrong, however that's actually the opposite from reality.

Yes agree, very small trading amounts making quite sizeable differences. Someone could make a real killing here.

We certainly are not seeing swathes of sells that were witnessed at higher prices and indeed quite a bit of buying today, which does say to me even without any news we are close to the bottom. I'm also sitting on my hands as confident in our management team whom we have met.
Currently on a Spanish Island and the wine is indeed plentiful and tasty. Don't believe we will need to sit in Elrico's plentiful and well stocked cellar and "drown our sorrows", like a group of old soaks. Indeed in my view things have never looked so good while we await the next tranche of news. Believe we know the reasons why we await updates there. What I'd like to know is just how more effective the lysate has become, but we will have to wait for the official verdict on that one.

However teamwork using these forums can be hugely advantageous and equal the advantages many larger institutions enjoy.
My best and probably funniest one was when I invested in GKP at the tip of TW (yep I was also a subscriber then) , before that company stuck oil in Kurdisan. GKP bought the licences from the Kurdish government, and wanted financial backing to drill after doing the seismic ground work. However they offered viewing to those prospective investors which included some retired geophysicists who were also experts in the oil industry in which I currently worked. They viewed the seimics and realised that there wasnt just one oilfield but high probability of several in various layers depending how deep you drilled. This info was shared privately on the forums. Mind you it wasnt hard to bet against, as the oil was seeping out of the ground there, the ground smelt of oil.. and as T. Kozel the CEO at that time stated "an oilmans dream".
Well we did have an extra trump card, when rigs hit oil they do a controlled burn off to check exact flow rates before reporting to the market.. this makes loads of smoke. .Black , black smoke,,, and the UK security guys...also invested as well and on the forums.... So when the cry went up...Black smoke.. something juicy was about to happen. However the plots were laid out grid fashion and we soon realised that our oil went into a adjacent plot owned by my company at that time Exxonmobil , going by those seismic that we had been invited to investigate.
I was at that time working for them controlling a "small "piece of kit called a catplant, and on our internal weekly news rag an article appeared from the now VP of XOM a Linda du Charm, who had recently been made overseer of that region. She was asking in the article if anyone had any questions they should contact her directly. So I took her up on her kind offer, and asked whether she also believed that oil extended into their plots at such and such depths, from a hanging wall or underground fault. Well strange things started to happen after she got my note. All my accounts and mail lines became locked out, and "corporate security" were bought in by her. They believed that no cat plant supervisor could possibly know such sensitive corporate information and that they were under attack from a competitor. I was actually relieved from my post by personal called in, and "escorted" to the refinery managers office where a small senior group of advisors, security and hr has hastily been assembled. They all actually ended up laughing at what they all really thought was something really serious, and I was offered further promotion soon after. However shake a tree and see what falls.. and if a 300lb gorilla jumps out, you know you are onto something. At one stage it then became a 50 bagger for me. True story and shows worth of forums, especially when a group uses its expertise and time to share that info.

I also did that with a minnow Canadian oiler a good few many moons ago, then out of the blue good old "house Saudi", decided to crash the oil price by flooding the market with their taps wide open at unsustainable prices. I took a major hit when along with another 200 odd companies got foreclosed by the bankers. Almost had a declarable interest in it as well as having some coms with the CEO just days beforehand that "all was well" .???? So in a nutshell, I will continue to privately investigate intensely any company that I have a large stake in, and probably was the main reason why I seriously decreased my 600k stake in OPTI, when it became apparent that "all was not well" . Would I do the same here, if I believed differently.
yep in a heartbeat, my money, my losses, my errors. However although current prices are at bargain levels and I believe I've got a fairly accurate current number on UK Axis sales to date , all things considered I'm very happy to continue supporting our team.

Wasn't advocating lying at all, probably reason she shut up shop PDQ. Cant recall huge problems caused by OPTI shareholders, I know the TATA word, gave them some excuses, but I believe that they signed up an agreement with OPTI in order just to stop growth and development, on any excuses they could find. Bit of a dirty trick some big companies employ, and I know personally who have had other problems with that same company especially when it came to payment for work completed. Wasn't it around a NDA, where shareholders worked it out, and parent companies (TATA) thought it had been leaked.
Got a longish, funny and true story about that happening with other major companies, as many in charge of them are really ignorant and in some cases arrogant over what pi's can learn and share via legal and proper investigation, and most importantly teamwork.

Yes I did ask first and she assumed I was a customer. When I replied I wasnt she shut up shop pretty rapidly, try yourself...the chat is manned during working hrs, nothing to lose.

Thought the royalties were on the supplied product not the product sale price. We know only a very small "sprinkle" goes in .

I do believe Croda are at the order stage now. When I spoke to the online rep, she asked me whether I wanted to include the lysate in my product, which says to me we are well beyond the sending out samples stage. I didnt get much further as she shut shop when I asked about availability timelines.

Hi Clio,
I'm sure our company would prefer a partnership, so would its shareholders. However I do see your point and it does look a bit like what he's saying.
Also the comments kindly posted by AquaeS, from Sederma, certainly reads that they want a good partnership and can see our products being a long staying essential ingredient , reads to me a hell of a lot more to come as well.
Speculation about taking over the company, is just that currently however their history along with reorganisation changes recently and a big war chest in my book tips the balance of probability .However that's just my own view. I don't know what the royalty figures are, and would imagine company confidential info.

Croda war chest intentions. See below.

Croda intends to reinvest proceeds from the transaction into faster growth areas, increasing its exposure to health care and further developing its position as a sustainability leader in consumer care and crop care markets. The Group’s priority is to use capital released through the transaction for organic capital expenditure and take advantage of the significant growth opportunities available in these markets. This will be supplemented by potential acquisitions of disruptive technologies in existing and adjacent markets. The Group will maintain its long-standing capital allocation policy, retaining an appropriate balance sheet and returning excess capital to shareholders if leverage remains below the target range of 1-2 times Group EBITDA and if sufficient capital is available to fund investment opportunities.

Croda and Cargill are currently working together on the process to separate the two businesses, with completion of the transaction expected in Summer 2022. The transaction is subject to receiving customary regulatory approvals but is not subject to approval by Croda’s or Cargill’s shareholders.

Steve Foots, Chief Executive of Croda, said: “Today’s announcement completes our transition into a pure-play consumer and life sciences company. We will focus our capital and resources on delivering sustainable solutions and scaling our consumer, health and crop care technologies, leading to consistent sales growth and an even stronger profit margin.

“Cargill is a company with a distinguished history and strong values. Under its ownership, the divested business and our talented, hardworking employees can look forward to a bright future.”

Colleen May, President of Cargill’s Bioindustrial business said: “The bioindustrial space is a priority for Cargill, as we strive to support our customers with innovative, nature-based solutions that deliver real-world benefits. Combining our diverse, global supply chain and deep operational expertise with Croda’s extensive industrial business capabilities and broad bio-based portfolio will spark a new wave of innovation and create tremendous value for our customers.”

Lol, I was waiting for that one, yes I believe its the Achilles heel, if you take over a company owning say 5% of another, all previous promises are off...Like returning the sale of of SBTX to shareholders as a divi.
Not hard to see how you could easily break up OPTI, sell some IP'S if req and get a foothold in this one. One things for sure they do have deep pockets, and very much the inside track on just how effective the new super strain lysate is. Much more than us in fact, which gives them an advantage over us, because as shareholders we cannot currently appropriate value to it, so could in effect "get caught with our pants down".

I'll make a first stab, but fully appreciate we have a good few investors here with some better knowledge, appreciate any experience they can share.
A company needs to get a majority share holding of any limited company in order to stage a takeover of that company.
Clearly if the price per share offered is attractive to the board and members they could endorse the offer... if not it could become a hostile takeover.
Opti holds about 20% and would be a potential easy share grab an da very good foothold in our company. As opti are in a lock in, Stuart would have to be asked first if he agreed. As we are partners with Croda he's unlikely to say no. However its the share holder that agrees to sell, at whatever price they agree at, so out of his hands.
Easy to think that SOH needed cash, flogging 3m shares are crashing the price, however he's got what he needed from that sale and I doubt hes letting the rest go cheaply. Same goes for every major holder...everyone knows which way Croda are moving and I'd bet good money some have already been approached by brokers.
However our board have share options so unlikely to want to see any deal going through below those strike prices, plus they would be potentially out of a job.
CEO could have huge influence over price, and issue shareholder recommendations based on what their views were.
Not all takeovers are for cash..orrible tax implications for some. Share company ownership swap at whatever agreed ratio also possible.

Note the moves into sunscreens and oral health care, now what's dear old Mr. Bell been doing. the last 6 months.
https://www.croda.com/en-gb/about-us/our-history/our-timeline
Bet a few of you will find some of the other tie ups as well.
Throw in the directional move, and than a huge war chest.
For me it's not if, its when.

Good post Mad,
You clearly have been looking at actually how Croda have been obtaining companies Not that I would want it but probably if forced the most palatable.
Well worth looking at what Geoff has been working on, and how it could tie in as well. Believe it will be disclosed before long.