Member Info for belgrano

Hi Chief, send our team a comprehensive note and I’m sure you will get a reply, or can I suggest come along to another informal shareholders meet like the brilliant Manchester one and you would be able to ask every question you can think of to your hearts content. Reason is clear, when we are invested in a company where all your questions are answered you are happy to take a larger position. Especially with more shareholders joining we perhaps should have another meet

I always share my thoughts and welcome others views, so if you would indulge me some licence here, can we run with what we know, and expect.
Many posters shared the view that our launch was indeed soft, with many having various bits of evidence (myself inc), that numbers were indeed small.
So if we went with Stuarts, 1.2M by end June, lets say 4 months away, and lets say rounded product sales of £50 a month, or £200 for 4 months...going with his fig as some wont subscribe till June and some will be subscribed already.
so for 4 months end June equates to 6000 subscribers 6000 X £200 = 1.2M
Next expand that for 1 further year ie 6000 X £50 x 12 months = 3.6M, and that's not any new customers, which clearly won't happen, so realistically another 12000 subscribers is achievable, which go on top of those already subscribed.
Now at 10.8M, by next june.

Glad to read the solid by not over egging RNS which falls almost exactly with my current expectations. Also news about our USA influencers will prove to be crucial in expanding sales. Indeed everything sold so far in the soft launch has been "word of mouth" and from investors on here and the study. No marketing amounts have been spent.
Now got to drill down into the RNS and what I expect to happen. Axis sales 1.2M by end of june, or about 4 months from now in turning up the "influencers crank handle" which has been restrained by SBTX so far.
I would not expect ant sederma lysatte sales before end of year, due to normal payment terms for this kind of product.
So running with those figs (and stuart will have to put out a "below market expectations" if it looks like it wont be achieved).
Second 4 months of the year...this is the real beauty of subscriptions...the snowball grows, even if its the same increase as the income to June it goes on top of that figure so 1.2 M plus 2.4M so about 3.6M for year end, which by this time we should see some sederma sales coming in, so say 0.4M . giving a total of 4M for just the first year of launch and some of that being the "soft part".
Market will love that, and because target market and price point is terrific, I'd easily go for a P/E of 30-40, justifying a higher shareprice based on hard sells.
Run it forward another 12-24 months, and we see where TW got his figs from.

Lol Toyin, that's what we said on the way down last time as well.
I'd rather not have stock swinging everywhere due to speculation but solid gains built on strong income. I've defo got as much skin in the game as most here, and I'm actually after a good few quid not 70p-90p. I know that kind of price can only be achieved by some decent numbers of subscribers or large amounts of lysate being sold. Not saying we won't achieve that fairly quickly as I know Stuarts about to turn the crank up handle with some solid USA influencers which will pinpoint our target market participants. and news on our lysate is due as well. Just want investors to have realistic expectations, because I also believed SOH and some huge predictions a few years ago and got badly disappointed and out of pocket.

Its not impossible however please dont be fooled into thinking that this nice rise means something new and significant is about to be released, the same thoughts were echoed on the way down a couple of months ago that some bad news was about to be released. That proved unfounded as well.

knew we were well into oversold territory previously, must must confess i think i'd have preferred some steady measured increases as sales and deals are announced. Not saying TW is wrong, but we know that stocks that approach 100M M/Cap without base cash inflow can really be victim to sudden surges like we are seeing.
However it does make most investors like myself feel a lot more comfortable in seeing 100K plus added to holding value which does to a large degree offload pressure on Stuart and the company.
Also might make any large holders like SOH look to see if he can raise more cash, and the cycle repeats itself.
One silver lining is that it helps protect against company predators like Croda..yep I know we are in partnership with them and all is rosy, but if our product is confirmed to be as better as their flagship product as some are saying, partnership or not, we are in trouble.

looks like stock supply getting very short, cant get instant price now on any decent amounts. Did fear it might happen.

One thing to consider with this stock and one of the reasons for a high percentage rise today verses a fairly modest amount of buying, is the price most investors bought at here expecting just as TW expects 10-20 bagger in a year or two.
Many bought in the long summer last year so in the 60/70/80's brackets so certainly looking for a decent return on that investment so very unlikely to see much profit taking on further rises as many bought in higher and have just topped up on the recent dip. Selling too soon could be regretted due in part to these facts and partly to the fact that some long awaited news will be released before long here especially when our USA influencers really get going.

yep and def ministry, breaking news. probably a good time to hide a prince andrew story.

looks like Ukraine may be kicking off, with some major cyber attacks just starting. Hope thats all and not the start of operations.

Stock now in index top 5 risers.
TW certainly seems very positive. Do wonder what else he has been told, however do know the product works very well, just takes a while to start seeing effects. TW also sees price going to a similar place falling in line with our estimates of a 10-20 bagger. Clearly Tyndall investment management also agree going by their recent and ongoing actions.

Well I do not believe that the UK subscription numbers can be that high due to the total lack of advertising in a market where most people have come to expect free treatment. Indeed I'd go further from a hard nosed standpoint and not avocate aiming at uk as a priority target market. Clearly that lies with the USA and their "partner", the NPF.
Well I really don't have a clue, what sales are like there. However we do know they have been struggling with workload, here in the UK and have recruited more personnel to aid them. I also believe that's it our company that were holding off on activating the USA sales "enhancers", due to the fact that there were real fears that they might not be able to cope with the anticipated increased demand. Certained some reliable investors I have talked to, believe the sales are going extremely well and that's not based on waving fingers in the wind, however I'd rather aim a little more modestly, and hope to be knocked for a six.

Think its important to realise that us investors and indeed Croda investors will be the last to be informed about progress. This is due to their market competition, indeed some of the reports indicate that the product well outperforms matrixyl, their flagship product which is in serious competition with their competitors. Now that was before the "enhanced performance at greater batch quantities" was noticed, which could indeed add more value.
Far better to " take the market by storm" , than release news early to us moaning investors, and alert the whole market to what they actually have via RNS.

markets are very nervous today, all stocks being effected.

Good one AquaeS, puts it into perspective.
Also I'm thinking if the "enhanced properties", of the larger batch 600 ltrs. are endorsed, they will certainly want to privately test a 20t batch to see if its either repeatable or stronger still.
If its either of the two, clearly they know they have a cracking product on their hands, so things will go "very quiet indeed", while they prime up their premium dozen customers with a view to kicking the hell out of all competition in this market.
Who will be the last to be informed....well us actually.
And its been very quiet for a while now already........????

All ties in nicely, you can get a hell of a lot of "sprinkles" from a 600ltrs batch every day. Also its enough to keep the 12 busy , but not the 1200 other clients. Need the new big reactor for that. Also says to me that they anticipate that the 20T vessel will also then going to be churning out daily batches as well, otherwise you would just stick at the 600 ltrs and not go for the larger reactor.

Have been searching for our product, however they are keeping it under wraps it seems.
https://www.crodapersonalcare.com/en-gb/product-finder?currentPage=1&pageSize=20&sortBy=recommended&lang=en-gb

Clearly the professionals believe this is a good stock to average down with. Also means acquisitions are taking place by these investors looking for a decent return not by traders with deep pockets. Another double positive.

Yep Tyndall normally take a 10% stake in a company for their well heeled private customers...So still potentially looking for stock.

Slow steady buys again today, now the short term traders have departed. Very good sign, slow and sure every day for me.