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Investor fatigue has definitely kicked in here and that has manifested in questioning CF. I totally get that. But everything yoh look for in a good investment is here.

But we can surely see the SP defies logic, and is sentiment driven. So long as core OO continues to generate the money that it does, everything is fine. I can only see that going one way TBH. The current context tells you everything you need to know on that front.

Without a doubt, things need to start moving with the spin outs. The current rate is too slow and factor in a lock in period too, the current delays make this an extremely frustrating hold for most PIs, and probably explains why new entrants to the market have failed to outweigh the sellers. It’s a contrarian view but one I’ve long held, the baggage waiting to be spun out is hurting Orph because there’s no timeline for it to be gone. Time is money after all and so long as it sits there, the lean mean CRO we all envisage is still a way off. That’s where the effort needs to be. Poolbeg then radio silence has really not been received well by the market.

I don’t buy the theory the spin outs will devalue orph, I think quite the opposite for the reasons outlined above. But one thing is for sure it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

Anyone calling for CF’s head needs to write to investor relations, voice their concerns through the proper channels, and wait for a response. Moaning on here is futile.

Either way my strategy is the same, nothing sold til all 4 in specie divis sit in my account, and even then we see where we are.

Lots of folks out for their 20% here.

If p3 is good we will be worlds away from £2.50/2/5…but if you are a nervy investor be wary. Volatility is likely in the run up to results and whilst it may be a smooth lift to £2.50 prior to results, history tells us it may not pan out that way.

Just some honest advice from a LTH. If you don’t intend to hold for results, don’t get burned by the pumping and make decisions based on your own thought processes.

Sounds rampy…

With you on SNG by the way strictly. To the outsider it’s speculative but anyone who has done a bit of digging knows the real score here. I’ve always seen Orph as my banker and SNG as tbe risk on investment but how differently things have turned out. Risk reward at this stage has OO and SNG in equally strong positions for different reasons IMO

Awash with green. Presumably Mr Beann has been putting a shift in with the same worn out arguments about CF.

The business continues to generate lots of money and good contracts. As I said earlier the market does not like the drifting delay of spin outs. IIs will not wait 2-3 years for this all to get done it’s as simple as that. Other than that ignore the noise and faux panic.

Admire your bravery upup!

We don’t know whether the instis like the strategy or not, but they certainly won’t like the drifting delay with the spin outs. At the current rate the spin outs will take a couple of years. All but the most patient LTHs(and I’m one of them) will want it done quicker than that.

Core OO is a cash cow and a perfectly investable vehicle. But the silence on spin outs is really starting to hurt because the longer they take, the further we are from the endgame. That’s what I’m attributing the SP action to.

Pulling back from what? Hardly rip roaring gains to pull back from if you’re talking about Friday. If we were past 200 I could see the argument but the pull back already happened when we went to 170 from a high of 214 last month. News imminent and new variant adding more spice to the mix. Don’t think there’s much downward pressure here other than silly games by day traders.

The way I look at it that those price targets will be met in one of two ways:
- legal payout/settlement in which case we will be waaay beyond the targets
- organic growth in which case, over time, theoretically, the SP should continue to climb as commercialisation begins in earnest.

I do think that for some LTHs that have been here and observed the collapse of this SP, a price target in pence rather than pounds might be a bitter pill to swallow, but in essence share bonuses based on success and growth I don’t have a problem with.

I don’t see the spread killing demand tomorrow. Should be a very good week ahead, and that’s discounting any RNSs we might get.

Hmmm not sure that’s the case Bear but don’t let the truth get in the way of a good argument eh. You know as well as I do it went far beyond ‘reality speak’.

For the record I think CF is just the man to seize the opportunities that this new variant will present. The world will need to seriously wake up and realise we cannot keep ‘reacting’ to things. Viral modelling is essential. For thst reason, even the most hardened CF basher can see that with the wide moat here, success will come almost in spite of the guy.

I’m surprised we didn’t see a lift comparable to Novacyt to be honest. Whilst they are in a different game to SNG, the new variant introduces similar challenges that each respective company could help solve. Whilst of course there will be doubts as to whether SNG is ill be effective against the new variant, anyone with more than a passing knowledge of our drug and the science behind it wouldn’t need too much convincing that SNG will be useful against this variant.

Ah well, LTHs are here for P3 regardless. The new variant has merely enhanced the scope and potential market should we be successful :)

Ironic considering crypto was meant to be the new ‘safe haven’.
I know this is an SNG and not a general discussion board but my god, what a loaf of guff crypto is! That house of cards coming down sooner rather than later I think.

Volume is healthy enough but so long as the big sellers keep pummelling as soon as she touches 20 then it’s not going to move until said seller finishes.

There’s been lots of positive news flow for us recently and this new variant shows the world needs to get much better at a) virus modelling and b) testing against variants. OO is in just the right place but bad sentiment lingers so patience will be needed.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this share always has the power to surprise!

Yesterday’s price action was as dull as dishwater and then bang. Could be a big day. Very happy with my top up yesterday. Good luck all, should be a great day!

We could be at ground zero again before long:

Covid: New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

Some snippets:
The latest form is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific".

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump on evolution [and] many more mutations that we expected," he said.

They give us concern this virus might have enhanced transmissibility, enhanced ability to spread from person to person, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system."

I know OO isn’t a COVID only stock but my money is on challenge studies coming back in a big way; this dog is about to have its day.

Something that was discussed here a couple of days ago now getting mainstream attention:

Covid: New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

"They give us concern this virus might have enhanced transmissibility, enhanced ability to spread from person to person, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system."

Enter SNG…

The author is referring to enochian biosciences, for whom he works. They are working on an inhaled strain agnostic treatment, but that’s only in preclinical trials so some way off just yet.

He does refer to ‘others’ which I think he may well have SNG in mind.

Doing my usual little DD ritual before my (last?) top up this morning and I had to pinch myself as I hit buy at 170odd pence.

I can’t believe that we are still at this price and whilst certainly not complaining at my top up price, I thought we would be well past 200 by now. Just think back to that placing, and where the company is at right now, so close to potentially transformative news, it doesn’t make sense to me that this doesn’t seem to be attracting any sort of premium!

Just interested to hear the thoughts of others. Will there be any sort of rise into this news do we think? Or could it be a bumpy ride?

I’ll be keeping a little in the tank for a December top up just in case we get any funny business immediately before news but I’m hoping we will be well beyond 200 by then.

There is definitely a seller. Volumes are up and still the SP does not budge. As soon as it dare poke it’s head above 20p it’s sold into.

I’m not too worried about it, really annoying as it seems it’s been one big seller after another, but once it’s done we will start to see true value assert itself once more.