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In the past few years overseas money has stayed away from the UK due to Brexit uncertainty. In the same timeframe PMO nearly went bust due to Solan and the subsequent debt burden and POO has been a nightmare. Fast forward to today and the debt is lower, We have Zama, Catcher is outperforming, Tolmount looks amazing, POO looks stable etc etc. So post the election overseas cash will look at PMO and say what ? Way overvalued or way undervalued ? If I were ACRM l would not be happy right now. I can’t wait for those ********’s to get what’s coming to them.
Zama sale will be key. Never thought this asset was properly priced in. If TD can get a decent price then the revenue will allow PMO to finally get debt down to a level that is manageable. It will also mean the next round of refinancing will be on their terms.
Forgive me if this is a stupid question but I get why ARCM have hedged but why wouldn’t they adjust the short as the SP moves ? Someone said every 1p increase increase in the SP is USD 1.4m down for ARCM. Their position hasn’t changed since June so surely at some stage if the SP keeps going up (and their position stayed the same) their loss on the short would outweigh their gain on the loans ?
Fully agree with the comments that the non reporting of this short is outrageous and i’ll be using that FCA link to complain.
Fantastic RNS.
Great presentation by Dr T.
Disappointing but not surprising share reaction.
Still some risk but let’s see where this baby is at 12 months time. My guess is a lot higher than todays price....
FOIL will be another nice step in the journey but not sure it’s a key metric in evaluating if HUR has a successful business model. Surely more pertinent is proving that FB drilling works long term. In this instance it will be getting to the plateau production of 17k per day and keeping it there for an extended period of time (6 months at least ??) Don’t get me wrong I’ll take a SP spike on FOIL but I think it will take plateau production for a while in order for the big ii’s to jump in. If they do I expect HUR’s share price to be multiples of today’s in 12 months time. Exciting times.
Groover: oil price crash at the same time as PMO substantially increasing their debt for a project called Solan very nearly killed the company and to be honest they are still paying for it now (Solans output has been disappointing and the debt is like a weight around their neck) Fast forward to today and they are paying down debt and have some fantastic new projects launched (Catcher) and some exciting ones in the pipeline (Zama, Tolmount and Sea Lion) - have a look at the presentations on the PMO website which explain it really well. My gut call is that they will sell Zama and concentrate on the other two. While I believe the fundamentals have never been better this share is not for the faint hearted or risk averse - expect to see big swings. I wish I had traded this at times but don’t have the time or skill set so have just stayed a LTH. Not going to give share price predictions as they will be meaningless but from my side this in my SIPP and ISA and I am very comfortable that the share price will be a lot higher in the medium to long term as long as the price of oil stays vaguely reasonable.
Couldn’t agree more. Learned a lot from it.
If you buy into Dr T and his team then I don’t see the point of bailing before the “job is done”. I know it’s a cop out but I’d like them to continue to prove the business model and then someone buys us out to make my sell decision for me. I’m hoping that this is in late 2020 with the sp at a multiple of today’s price !!
While today was obviously good news I just couldn’t understand why people were so fixated on it and linking it upwards SP movements. Even FOIL is just a stepping stone that can ultimately disappoint (just ask PMO about Solan) Now when production starts ramping to the 17,000 bpd plateau now that’s when it gets very interesting. I’m long here and very happy with my position. If Dr T continues to deliver and POO plays nicely then I’m going to have a very nice Christmas 2019 all paid for by HUR.
Shame the board has become less useful with so many inane posts in recent weeks. The majors recent quarterlys were interesting. Think this will be replicated by the mid cap ollies over the next month or so. Agree with some comments in that we’ve had a combination of equities being out of fashion and a weakening POO dragging PMO down. Worth putting this in context in that if this had been replicated 12 months ago we’d be in the 60’s so pleased to see PMO has moved on from those days. Fundamentals will always win out and with POO in the 70’s that, even with hedging, is ton of cash per day for PMO. Looking forward to the update on the 15th and maybe some nice Zama news in December. Still a very happy LTH of PMO.
I’m right in saying POO is above $80 ? So PMO is still clearing an obscene amount of free cash flow each day ? That’s fine by me if it can hold at this level and here’s to the £2 party on New Years Eve.
MVP: after the floor fell out of commodities but then started to recover it took GLEN, ANGLO and the like 2 years to fully Re-rate. During that time there were loads of anomalies like you describe (one time with Zinc and GLEN really springs to mind) so my take is that it’s a timing issue and your discrepancy below won’t be there in 12 months time.
I suppose it’s all matter of perspective. Mine is that PMO is in a consolidation phase after some pretty impressive gains. It’s also on a much sounder footing than even 6 months ago let alone 2 years ago with Catcher pumping as it is. POO is a bit erratic as the bulls and bears fight over its direction but at the end of the day even if it went down to USD 80 or even USD 75, and maintined that for 2019, then PMO will do very well indeed. That being said I see world demand holding steady and a massive supply crunch looming so I would be surprised if POO did go down to these levels.
So......KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.
My take is POO will hold up enabling FID this year and sanction by end of Q2 next year. If I am right this is bloody cheap at this price so I just sold the last of my GLEN and put the lot in here. GLEN was a multi bagger for me but it took 2 years to fully get there. I’m looking to hold here for a similar time frame and I think I will be very happy in 2 years time as a RKH shareholder. GLA.
Fully agree. This will finnish blue today. 145.6p
Another 2p or 3p rise today please will do very nicely indeed.
PS. Cocka roasted andy.p on iii today. It was a very funny read. What’s even funnier is andy thinks I’m cocka. The sad thing is he was very clever how he posted and I’m sure he influenced some people to sell up in the 50’s and 60’s. Yes people shouldn’t put much store in BB posts but it’s difficult when someone who’s obviously clever constantly slams a company with “well reasoned” arguments.
Thanks ROS1. Looks like the supply squeeze is finally coming home to roost. Very glad I’m long on mid cap ollies. Should be a fun month ahead.
Why is POO spiking so much tonight ? Looked and can’t see any specific news reason why. I hate it when it does this as PMO doesn’t go up in tandem. However, when POO drops back down for any reason then PMO also goes down disproportionally.
Strange day. Great start then disappointed a bit. POO looking very strong this evening. Which is nice....