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Changy was so much fun and made some great calls. I just noticed in my diary a prediction of his I put in to see if he’d be right: On the 29th June 2018 - Changs PMO prediction of £ 2 based on an average of USD 65 oil and catcher at 60,000 by now. Can’t remember when he made the prediction but no one else was saying anything like POO of USD 65 for 1 HY 2018 (and USD 65 is looking conservative now) All we need is Catcher to plateau at 60k and PMO to hit £ 2 and Changy will officially be a god.
Sanctions are not 100% certain to happen so it can’t be 100% priced in. I’m therefore saying USD 5 is currently priced in with another USD 5 to come if sanctions occur I.e. USD 10 total impact of the sanctions and it’s currently priced in as a 50% chance of happening. You say USD 75 a fair price - from my side if demand remains strong and supply continues to drop (Iran, Venezuela, Angola) then fair price for oil is only going one way and that is higher than USD 75
Hyds: If Trump sanctions Iran there could be 1m barrels per day leaving the market (minimum of 500k) My take is USD 5 is currently priced in so if it doesn't happen POO will slip back to USD 70. If he does sanction them POO will spike to USD 80 and then god knows what. If global demand remains as strong as it has been and Venezuela and Angola continue to tank then the people saying USD 100 per barrel could be right. For me anything above USD 70 is looking pretty good for PMO as long as Catcher comes good (come on Tony, RNS on Monday pretty please)
For those people missing andy.p check out the iii board. Under gk10 he’s winding people up with his usual passive aggressive, ultra negative, you just don’t know what you’re talking about when it comes to PMO, attitude. It’s actually quite funny.
Fair do to people who trade PMO. If you've done so since Oct 16 I can see you could have made some good money with the wild swings we've seen. Me, I don't have the time or the skill to do this. My take is if POO remains above USD 70 for the year, and Catcher comes good, this will easily be above 150p this year and that will fine by me....
Any bets on the usual late surge from 4pm ?
I know there are a few BH’s still around so they will be hedging as arbitrage but 10% still shorting seems crazy to me. Every bit of news on oil is bullish plus (hopefully !!!) Catcher news still to come. I think the late spike tonight was the start of the shorters exiting. I think we’ll also see a big spike tomorrow as shorters continue to exit before more good news hits.
Seer: very nice buy in price. Good call.
POO Looks pretty strong to me. Floor seems to be USD 73 and every time it hits then it spikes back up. Imagine that comment being made 3 months ago we’d all have been very happy indeed. Trump can say what he wants - we’ll see USD 80 in the next month.
I don’t know now. When he appointed Bolton and Pompeo I thought sanctions against Iran we’re a 95% chance of happening. Now I’m thinking 40% based on he’ll be the one Americans will be blaming for the POO hike and they will point to his tweet today. Still think POO will get to USD 80 on fundamentals. Iran would just be nice as it would spike it to USD 100.
NAV looks fantastic given the price today. Had a few of these and then averaged down with the recent issues. I’m still underwater but agree with a lot of the previous posts saying this has been oversold. One (good / even average) RNS and this will re-rate quickly. It’s a bit of a gamble but upsides could be pretty impressive. Guess we’ll see.....
We’ll see ups and downs but fundamentals point to POO heading north over the next few months. PMO making a ton of money at these prices (even with the hedging) what will we look like with POO at USD 80 ? USD 100 ? My call is to hold for all of 2018 and see where we are in January 2019 (and debate with myself then if my nerves can take it if a big drop happens as we’ve seen in the past 2 years !!) That just leaves Catcher......it’s been a model project from the start to now...come on Tony we’ve backed you this far. A nice RNS on Monday please....
RNS we are at 60k please Tony. It could not be better timing if you tried with POO at present level. I know there are opinions that this is already priced in but sentiment is a funny thing. Confirmation Catcher has been a fantastic sucess story will get ii’s attention. You look at PMO’s market cap and all the good news and it’s easy to deduce this is still a very underpriced share.