Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Maybe the FCA will surprise us all and actually grow a pair and do something for a change about market abuse. For ARCM to say “sorry we just didn’t know we had to report it” is laughable. Imagine if they shorted a share in the US and said “sorry we didn’t know shorting was illegal in the US”. The yanks would say nice try and crucify them. Pure and simple what they have done has caused a massive conflict of interest and now is out and out market abuse with their court appearance trying to block something that everyone (PMO, ALL the other lenders, shareholders) say is best for the company.
The longer ARCM take to reduce their short is surely just storing up a bigger problem for them in the future if the PMO SP keeps going north. Every other short declared above 0.50% has reduced in recent days. God I hope they get well and truly screwed.
ARCM are toast. I know there are lots of comments that with their coupon on the loan, actual shares they own and short position that they can’t lose but not sure I agree with this. Their short is HUGE and if you look at the various transactions that make up their short position the PMO share price was a LOT lower than today’s SP. Their loss on the short must be costing them more than their earnings on their other PMO positions.
Grippa: I don’t think ARCM is a new poster. I think it’s ****a the bane of Andy.p !!!
Totally agree. Covenant ratio of x1 in 2022 and USD 1bn of FCF. The more you look at this deal it’s a game changer to get PMO’s balance sheet back on an even keel in a very short space of time. Very happy with TD. Think he’s done a great job.
PMO only need 2% more and it’s a done deal. Of the 8% they hadn’t spoken to a lot are shareholders and therefore have a vested interest in the company succeeding. TD has played a blinder and ARMC are screwed.
Agree. POO is the variable but on every other metric such as production levels, debt quantum coming down, debt period pushed back to 2023, Zama, Catcher, Tolmount, SL farm in, use of tax credits with new acquisitions etc PMO have never been in better shape. If someone knew nothing about PMO but was shown these fundamentals and asked the question over the next 12 months if would they would short or go long what would they say ? Yesterday was great. Today not so much so. But what the SP will be in 12 months time is the interesting question and I think it will be a lot higher than today’s price.
A lot of LTH seemed to sell up yesterday. Totally understand why as it’s been a bumpy road at times. From my side I think the ARCM debacle still has a fair bit to run and their short outweighs by far any hedging needed on their loan (hence their panicked press release yesterday) I can’t help but think that ARCM have well and truely screwed up. Their undeclared short has been a drag on the SP and I look forward to the opposite effect when they unwind it.
TR61: so sorry to read your news. It certainly puts things into perspective for us all. Hope you and your family can enjoy some good times with your PMO profit.
The SP still has a way to go I think. PMO near certain to get 75% approval to the restructuring so expect to see ARCM reduce their short dramatically over the next week (not that the ******s will declare it in good time......)
It’s 5pm in Hong Kong. Time for the ARCM boys to hit a bar in Lan Kwai and drown their sorrows. So sad for them.....
Redwine: I get that they are hedging the debt but they have not adjusted their short materially as the PMO share price has increased. At some stage the loss on the short will outweigh their earnings on the debt and I’d guess this actually has happened already.
I am starting to get twitchy about ARCM. I just can’t see how their current position makes sense and that worries me as they can’t be complete idiots. It’s been stated that every 1p that PMO’s share price goes up costs them USD 1.4m so will PMO’s SP head north or south ? If you look into 2020 we already have the China/US trade deal nearly done, China recent manufacturing figures showing an increase (which a trade deal will only help further), Geopolitical issues causing POO to increase, Catcher going great guns, Tolmont on track, Zama sale to reduce debt further. Based on all of these if you were betting man surely you would bet on PMO going up not down ? I just can’t help but think there is something we don’t know that they do. Their main shorting activity stopped when the Zama sale process was announced. I’m hoping that whatever their plan was it gets well and truly screwed by the Zama sale and POO going up.
I would be crapping myself if I were ARCM. Shorters don’t always get it right and let’s hope that is the case this time.
I totally disagree with what the US has done and the in the end the repercussions for US citizens around the world could be dire. However, I just don’t see how I have “blood on my hands” if I continue to hold PMO shares. Neither myself or PMO are complicit in what happened. Nothing either of us can do can influence these types of situations. If we benefit financially then that is just a side issue. If PMO goes up this morning I won’t be gloating but also I won’t feel guilty or feel that I have “blood on my hands”
There have been quite a few comments here and on ADFN about ARMC being so clever, and have such a large PMO position, that they can block the refinancing. How exactly ? The loans mature in Q1 2021. What does it matter if you are a hedge fund who has bought the debt and don’t agree with the refinancing terms ? Your debt has matured. You stop getting your 7% and you bugger off. Now if PMO can’t get anyone else to take on the debt then yes the tables turn back to ARMC. However, If you look at PMO’s fundamentals they look pretty good. Way better than they were forced to pay 7% interest. My call is that new lenders will be falling off their chairs to offer 4% to 5% and they will still think they have a great deal.
Great PR by PMO (for a change)
Timely, factual and very very clear.
Shorters don’t always get it right and in this case I think they have realised they are on the wrong side of this one and are desperate for an exit. As long as the PMO fundamentals stay strong I think they are in big trouble. AMRC bonuses will be calculated based on their profits at year end. If they panic and unwind such a huge short quickly then watch the SP rocket.
The short must now be costing them more than the interest they are getting on the loans. If this latest bit of misinformation doesn’t work then surely at some stage they will have to reduce such a huge short no matter what the PMO share price is. They are hoping their newspaper friends can help get the PMO share price back to the 80’s but if they can’t and it keeps going up based on good fundamentals ? Agree with a lot of posters that this smacks of desperation by our HK friends. Hope they get well and truly ******
Says it all for the telegraph reporting that it’s £2bn of outstanding loans not the correct $2bn. But hey let’s not let facts get in the way. ARCM are panicking and calling in all the favours they can from their friends in the press. Love to see POO spike soon to really put the wind up them.
Telegraph saying PMO “hurtles towards a deadline to pay back £2bn of loans” is just plain outrageous scare tactics reporting probably started / backed by our “ friends” in Hong Kong.